NCAA Men's Basketball Best Bets (Mar. 11): Betting Odds & Top Picks Featuring SEC & Mountain West

Although there is only one ranked team in play for Wednesday’s NCAA Men's basketball slate, there should be some fun late-round mid-major matchups with early-round Power Four games. I’ll be focusing on the latter for this betting card, backing two favorites with an angle on a total in the first round of the SEC and Mountain West conference tournaments.

(Photo by Candice Ward/Getty Images)

From a bettor’s perspective, I’ve found these low-key slates are often the best to wager on compared to loaded slates that the entire country is betting on.

You can find all odds used in my NCAA basketball predictions at DraftKings and BetMGM.

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NCAA Basketball Bets & Betting Odds For Wednesday, Mar. 11

Wyoming at UNLV NCAA Basketball Prediction for Mar. 11

After watching UNLV’s last two games in their entirety, I told myself that this would be a team worth taking a hard look at backing in the Mountain West tournament.

Home-court Advantage for UNLV Should Play

With the Mountain West Tournament being played at UNLV’s home court in the Thomas and Mack Center in Las Vegas, this was just another reason I committed to backing the Runnin’ Rebels in their conference tournament.

With only 16 wins on the season, 10 of them came in Vegas over solid competition (wins against Utah State, Grand Canyon, Saint Joseph’s). Meanwhile, Wyoming is an 18-win team with a tough 4-9 road record, showing some questionable results (losses against Sam Houston and Fresno State).

Gibbs-Lawhorn, Jones Combo has Been on Fire

UNLV guard Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn is one of the most dynamic scorers in the Mountain West, if not the most dynamic. Not only does he lead the conference in scoring with 21 points per game, but he’s been particularly hot as of late.

UNLV is led offensively by the guard, who averages 21 points per game and serves as the Rebels’ primary scoring threat. Gibbs-Lawhorn plays a major role in creating offense, using his ability to score off the dribble and from the perimeter to keep defenses stretched and open opportunities for teammates. His scoring ability makes him the focal point of the Rebels’ attack, and a player opposing defenses must account for throughout the game.

In the frontcourt, forward Tyrin Jones gives UNLV a strong interior presence. Jones averages about 11.9 points and nearly five rebounds per game while also protecting the rim with two blocks per game.

He could play a pivotal role in this matchup, as Wyoming relies heavily on its guards and doesn’t have much length up front, something that has shown up defensively at times and could allow Jones to make an impact in the paint.

Reasons to Bet the Over

Ultimately, the only thing that makes me second-guess laying the points with the Rebs is their defense, but I have a solution and angle on the total to cover for that.

Ranking as one of the worst defenses in the Mountain West, UNLV especially struggles defensively on the perimeter, and that could play a role against a Wyoming offense that relies heavily on its backcourt combo of Leland Walker (13.8 PPG) and Damarion Dennis (10.9 PPG).

I believe taking the over here is a smart bet individually, but also works as a hedge in a way—especially considering the last time these two played it was a 98-66 Wyoming win at home.

The other thing that points in our favor here is just how much the Runnin’ Rebs love to push the floor in transition, ranking 48th fastest in the nation according to KenPom’s adjusted tempo metric. If UNLV can dictate the tempo at home (which I expect), then we should see a lot of possessions in this game as we did in January.

• The Pick: UNLV -3 (-125 BetMGM), Over 154.5 (-105 BetMGM)

With this essentially being a home game for UNLV, trust the Runnin’ Rebels to win a shootout.

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South Carolina at Oklahoma NCAA Basketball Prediction for Mar. 11

Oklahoma is another team I told myself to back in the early rounds of its conference tournament. However, I like their matchup even more.

Back Oklahoma’s Offense

A big reason I’m high on the Sooners right now is their underrated offense. According to KenPom’s offensive analytics, Oklahoma finished near the top of many metrics of multiple offensive categories to finish the NCAA regular season.

Most importantly, the Sooners finished with an offensive efficiency rating of 123.8, good for 22nd in the nation. They also finished a solid 55.1% in effective field goal percentage.

Oklahoma Lives and Dies by the Three Ball

Oklahoma led the SEC in 3-point percentage during league play at 39%. This team lives and dies beyond the arc, and that was evident in the last matchup between these two teams, where the Sooners lost on the road and shot 5/27 from deep.

Oklahoma guard Nijel Pack leads the team with 16.1 PPG and is the Sooners' primary scoring threat, shooting a sizzling 45.3% from 3-point range (5th nationally). Going back to that first matchup, Pack was having an uncharacteristic off day, scoring nine and going 3-13 from the field and 0-7 from three.

With slim hopes still alive for Oklahoma and a ton of momentum fueled by a four-game win streak against good competition (Texas, Missouri, LSU, and Auburn), trust that the veteran guard and the Sooners will be at their best when it matters most.

South Carolina’s Offense is a Major Problem

Meanwhile, it’s the opposite story on the other end, as South Carolina is just downright bad offensively. According to multiple analytics sites, including KenPom and EvanMiya, the Gamecocks rank last in the SEC in offensive efficiency, which tells you everything you need to know about how much they struggle to score. They average about 78.3 points per game, but those numbers are inflated by nonconference play and drop significantly against SEC competition.

The bigger issue is their inefficiency.  South Carolina shoots just 45.7% from the field and 32.1% from three, both middle-to-bottom tier numbers in the SEC. They also rank 316th nationally in offensive rebounding, grabbing just 9.4 offensive boards per game, which means they rarely generate second-chance points when their offense stalls.

Ball movement is another problem. The Gamecocks average just 13.6 assists per game, ranking 216th nationally, and they’ve only had a player record more than five assists in a game eight times all season. When the offense breaks down, they simply don’t have enough playmaking to recover.

When you compare that to an Oklahoma offense that ranks 22nd nationally in offensive efficiency with a 123.8 rating, the matchup becomes even clearer. If the Sooners shoot anywhere near their 39% three-point mark from SEC play, this is a spot where their offense should have a clear edge.

• The Pick: Oklahoma -7.5 (-110 BetMGM)

The Sooners still have a bit of hope at making the tournament, and South Carolina does not. Trust that hope and differences in offenses will serve as motivation here to win by double digits.

Stay tuned for more NCAA basketball bets!