NCAA Basketball Best Bets Today (Mar. 3): SEC, Big 12 Matchups, Betting Odds & Predictions

March basketball is officially here, ladies and gentlemen. And as we head into the final week of regular-season play for Power Five schools, the margins only get thinner for teams still looking to get into the big dance. Let's take a look at the top SEC and Big 12 NCAA basketball bets for Mar. 3.

(Photo by Chris Coduto/Getty Images)

On Tuesday’s college hoops slate, I’m backing one of the nation’s top offenses in an SEC showdown and a Big 12 bubble team with an elite defense poised to keep their matchup tight in a low-scoring game.  You can find all odds used in my NCAA basketball predictions at BetMGM and Caesars Sportsbook.

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NCAA Basketball Bets for Tuesday, Mar. 3

No. 16 Alabama at Georgia Prediction

I was shocked when I saw this game was around even odds.

Both Teams Have Similar Styles, Bama Executes Better

Both of these teams get up and down the floor at a lightning pace, with Alabama ranked fourth in the country in adjusted tempo and Georgia ranked 22nd. And it might just be a product of that pace, but both teams also match up similarly — elite offenses paired with average defenses.

Even on the road, I believe this clash of similar philosophies gives an edge to the Crimson Tide. Just looking at the metrics, Alabama has the better offense (third vs. 78th, according to KenPom) and the better defense (59th vs. 78th, per KenPom).

When matched up against teams that also like to turn the game into a track meet, the evidence (wins vs. Arkansas, Texas A&M and USF) suggests that Bama enjoys playing teams that can match its pace.

Alabama Riding a Late-Season Surge

I acknowledge it’s a great bounce spot for the Bulldogs at home, especially given where they can end up in the SEC standings with a couple wins this week. However, that doesn’t mean I don’t think it’s a bad spot for Alabama with momentum.

Winning nine straight games against very good competition (at Tennessee, vs Arkansas, vs Texas A&M, at Auburn), the Tide have a shot to head into the SEC tournament with a 10+ game win streak.

Coming off a huge win at Tennessee, I’m of the opinion that in March - if a team is hot - you just have to trust that late-season mentality to avoid potential letdown spots.

The Tide Are Road Warriors

With a 9-2 record on the road with their only losses coming to Florida and Vandy, playing at Georgia seems like a manageable challenge.

• NCAA Basketball Pick: Alabama ML (-120 BetMGM)

Trust Bama to continue their hot streak on the road here and hammer the better team at even odds in what should be a high-scoring game.

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TCU at No. 10 Texas Tech Prediction

Vegas isn’t giving the Horned Frogs enough credit with this line.

Is the Market Overreacting to One Big Win?

Despite losing J.T. Toppin to injury late last month, Texas Tech has played surprisingly well without him. Based solely on their most recent win at Iowa State by nine over the weekend, I can understand why a home game against TCU is at 10.

Context must be taken into consideration here because I watched that entire game, and Iowa State just came out incredibly flat before eventually outplaying Tech down the stretch when it was too late.

It was a huge win for them, there’s no doubt. However, I think losing an elite player like Toppin, who was averaging a double-double with 21.8 PPG, has to eventually show up.

This Is a Perfect Letdown Spot For Tech, Motivation Spot For TCU

With so much on the line at this late point in the season, I know I’ve previously written about how I don’t typically factor in spots in March.

With that said, this one just seems too good to be true for both squads. For Tech, they’re sitting second in the Big 12 with zero path to the top seed. Coming off a massive road win at Iowa State and with another huge road matchup against TCU looming to close the regular season, this spot feels sandwiched between two games they’d give an arm and a leg to win.

Add in that TCU is a true bubble team at 18 wins, and I think it’s fair to assume we’ll get the best from them. Teams hovering around that number understand how important 19 can be for March Madness positioning, and being just one win away from it should bring a heightened level of urgency.

Defense Travels, Trust The Horned Frogs

As good as Christian Anderson and Donovan Atwell have been offensively, I trust TCU's elite defense to keep them relatively in check.

TCU ranks 23rd nationally in defensive efficiency with a 98.2 rating, according to KenPom. The Horned Frogs also rank second in the Big 12 in turnovers forced per game at 13.9 and second in the conference, 28th nationally, with 4.7 blocks per game, giving them multiple ways to disrupt opposing backcourts.

• NCAA Basketball Pick: TCU +10 (-110 Caesars Sportsbook)

With a total in the 140s, trust this will be a low-scoring game with the Frogs keeping it within single digits.