NCAA Basketball Championship Odds: Michigan Takes Over As New No. 1, Betting Favorite After Arizona Losses

We knew this had to happen. With Arizona falling not once but twice last week, the Wildcats had to drop from the top of the AP Top 25 and they did. Arizona spent nine weeks atop the poll, an impressive feat for a team that began the year at No. 13. So, who is the new No. 1?

The answer to that question can’t come as a surprise, either: the Michigan Wolverines. After sitting at No. 2 for six consecutive weeks, Michigan has ascended to No. 1 in the AP Poll for the first time in 13 years.

(Photo by Jaime Crawford/Getty Images)

This, of course, leads us to a new question: What does this mean as far as national championship odds are concerned?

Latest NCAA Basketball Championship Odds

Here are the latest NCAA basketball national championship odds for the AP Top 15 from BetMGM (as of Feb. 16):

• No. 1 Michigan +425
• No. 2 Houston +750
• No. 3 Duke +650
• No. 4 Arizona +450
• No. 5 UConn +1500
• No. 6 Iowa State +1200
• No. 7 Purdue +1900
• No. 8 Kansas +2000
• No. 9 Nebraska +3500
• No. 10 Illinois +1300
• No. 11 Gonzaga +4000
• No. 12 Florida +1300
• No. 13 Texas Tech +2500
• No. 14 Virginia +8000
• No. 15 Michigan State +5000

At this time last week, the outlook was a little different. Arizona, as the longtime No. 1 in the AP Poll, had the shortest odds at +360, followed by Michigan at +450, Duke at +650, Houston at +750, UConn at +1500, Illinois at +1200, Florida at +1300, etc. As you can see, there isn’t necessarily a strong correlation between a team’s position in the AP Top 25 and its odds of winning the championship.

That being said, it does help to be inside the top five of the AP Poll. Since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1984-85, five teams ranked No. 1 heading into the Tournament have gone on to win. There have been 12 teams ranked in the top five that have done the same. It’s a relatively small percentage, but hey—it’s called March Madness for a reason.

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National Championship Odds: Our Pick(s)

So, it helps to be the No. 1 team in the AP Poll heading into the Tournament. So, let’s take a look at a few teams that could hold the spot, their current odds, and talk about whether they are a recommended bet right now:

Michigan +425

There are two approaches you could take in regard to the Wolverines with four of their final six regular-season games coming against ranked teams, including three top-10 squads. If they win, their odds will get a lot shorter, so you should bet on them now. But if they lose No. 7 Purdue, No. 3 Duke, No. 10 Illinois, or No. 15 Michigan State, they’ll probably fall from No. 1, and their odds will go up.

• Our Pick: Pass for now. They are playing too many really good teams the rest of the way for me to feel comfortable betting on them.

Houston +650

Like Michigan, Houston will be in ‘prove it’ mode down the stretch with its next three games against top-10 teams (vs. No. 6 Iowa State, No. 4 Arizona, and No. 8 Kansas). If they make past this gauntlet and Michigan loses, they’ll slide into the top spot. But even if they don't move up, they’ve been a top-five team all season long.

• Our Pick: Take Houston to win at +650; they have been one of the best and most consistent teams all season.

Arizona +450

This team is too good not to bounce back. And with four games left vs. ranked teams (including No. 2 Houston, No. 8 Kansas, and No. Iowa State), they’ll have a chance to prove they are worthy (which will lead to shorter odds) of winning the NCAA championship.

• Our Pick: Take Arizona at +450; I doubt their odds will be this high again.