NCAA Basketball Top Picks & Parlays: Will Villanova Expose No. 5 UConn?

There is never a time when winning in college basketball is not important. The need to win gets amplified this time of year when teams are jockeying for position in the conference tournament and trying to boost their March Madness resumes. This, of course, makes betting on NCAA basketball top picks and parlays even more fun.

With conference tournaments right around the corner, we are bound to see a few teams pick their games up. Some will slip and fall, and others, well, there is no telling what some teams will do in crunch time. Whatever they do, the following are some of my top college basketball picks for Feb. 21.

(Photo by M. Anthony Nesmith/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

NCAA Basketball Prediction: No. 5 Connecticut Huskies vs. Villanova Wildcats

The Huskies are a team most college basketball fans will be somewhat familiar with — winning national titles will have that kind of impact. But UConn has had its best seasons (i.e., national championship-winning ones) when it could sneak up on people come NCAA Tournament time.

They aren’t doing that this year. They Huskies been among the top teams in the nation in the polls all season long en route to a 24-3 record, 14-2 in the Big East. Going 5-2 against ranked teams is impressive, but the team they got their signature win against, then-No. 7 BYU, is now ranked No. 23.

So, they’ve beaten several good teams. But the best? Not really. Could they be overrated? Maybe. Their recent loss to Creighton shows they may not be as good as a top-five team should be. The loss could be chalked up to an off night from the floor in the second half (34%).

Villanova could use Creighton's blueprint in Saturday's game vs. UConn

But the issue wasn’t the UConn offense, which scored 84 points and averages closer to 79. No, it was their defense, ranked No. 19 in the country and No. 2 in the Big East. It had no answer for a Bluejays team that shot 49% from the floor and 48% from 3-point range.

Could Villanova pull off a similar feat? Creighton ranks first in the Big East in 3-point attempts and made threes, but Villanova ranks second. However, UConn ranks first in 3-point defense. So, did they just have a bad night against Creighton? Villanova is a good team. You don’t go 21-5, 12-3 Big East without having something going for you.

When they faced UConn earlier in the season, the game went to overtime. But the Wildcats' offense went cold, and Connecticut outscored them 14-6 to seal the win.

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UConn vs. Villanova: My Pick

• OVER 139.5 at -115 (BetRivers)

I am a little surprised that the TOTAL is as low as it is. Both teams have good offenses and capable defenses, but neither has a defense that can just shut the other team down. I'd like to think UConn will win, but there’s a trend that is too good to ignore: the OVER is 8-0 in UConn’s last eight games and 6-2 in Villanova’s last eight.

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NCAA Basketball Parlay Picks for Feb. 21

The odds used in building this parlay bet can be found at bet365.

• No. 25 Alabama -7.5 (vs. LSU) at -110

The Crimson Tide has the No. 1 offense in the country (92.7 points per game). But they are terrible on defense (No. 352). However, LSU has struggled in conference play, losing its last four in a row and 11 of 13 conference games. Alabama’s defense will not hold them back in this game. It should be a relatively easy cover for the Tide.

• No. 1 Michigan ML (vs. No. 3 Duke) at -155

A game like this is going to be too close in my mind to take or lay the points, even though we are just talking about 2.5. Duke has a solid offense that can dominate the paint. However, it hasn’t faced a defense that can control the inside quite like Michigan. At the same time, Duke’s defense is too tough to let Michigan run away with the game.

If either team was hosting, I’d probably go with the home team's spread. But since this contest is on a neutral court, I’m going with the No. 1 team in the country

• Gonzaga -21.5 (vs. Pacific) at -110

The Bulldogs have a top-25 offense (87.4 points per game) and defense (66.9 points per game allowed), and they’ve gone 14-1 in conference play. Pacific is .500 in conference play and plays decent defense (68.8 points per game allowed). But it does not have a strong offense (74 points per game).

It’s a big spread, but the Bulldogs have historically dominated the Tigers (22-0). As long as Gonzaga doesn’t look ahead to the only conference team to beat it (Portland) and the second-best team in the conference (Saint Mary’s), they’ll cover this spread.

Parlay Odds: +499

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