Big 12 Mens' Tournament Final: No. 5 Houston Cougars vs. No. 2 Arizona Wildcats Odds & Picks (Mar. 14)

Big 12 basketball fans are getting an early Christmas present today with a rematch between two of the best teams in the country. I’m talking about the No. 5 Houston Cougars and No. 2 Arizona Wildcats.

(Photo courtesy of Getty Images)

When they met in the regular season, Houston was fresh off a disappointing 70-67 loss to then-No. 6 Iowa State, their second conference loss of the season and third overall. Arizona was just one game removed from a two-game losing streak that saw the Wildcats lose their perch on top of the AP Poll.

So, it was an important game for both the last time they met, and now it’s for hardware. Let’s take a look at how both teams reached the Big 12 Final, the betting line for the game, and our picks.

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Big 12 Tournament: Houston Reestablishes Its Dominance on Defense and Arizona Narrowly Avoids Disaster

As the No. 1 and 2 seeds in the Big 12 Tournament, both received byes in the first two rounds and didn’t have to play until the quarterfinal round. Brayden Burries led the way for the Wildcats in their quarterfinal matchup vs. UCF as Arizona won with ease, 81-59. Houston was behind at the half against BYU, 41-37. But the Cougars made some halftime adjustments and dominated the second half, 36-25, en route to a 73-66 victory.

The Cougars got their first shot at revenge in the semifinal round against Kansas, the last team to beat them during the regular season (Feb. 23, 69-56). This time, the game wasn’t even close. Houston put its defensive intensity on display, stifling the Kansas offense and holding the Jayhawks to 47 points and 24% shooting from the floor.

Arizona, on the other hand, nearly missed out on a spot in the Final. The Wildcats allowed Iowa State to shoot 47% from the floor for 80 points and needed a buzzer-beater by Jaden Bradley to secure the win.

Big 12 Tournament Final Odds & Pick: Houston vs. Arizona

• Spread: Houston +2.5  (-102) | Arizona -2.5  (-118)
• Moneyline: Houston +120 | Arizona -142
• TOTAL: O/U 138.5 (-112/-108)

Odds via DraftKings

Houston’s bread and butter has been its suffocating defense. It held opponents to 62.4 points per game (No. 2 in the country) and 39.8% from the floor (No. 16; No. 3 in the Big 12). However, as good as their defense is, Arizona’s may be a step better despite allowing more points (68.6 per game).

The Cougars’ defense is known for its efficiency. However, Arizona ranks third in defensive efficiency per KenPom (89.7), while Houston ranks fifth (91.1). But their defense was slipping toward the end of the regular season. They went 1-7 ATS in their last eight games.

Some of the blame belongs to the offense, too, of course. But for a team that prides itself on its defensive intensity, they were not closing teams out.

Kingston Fleming led the way in Houston’s win over Kansas, much like he has all season, with 21 points. He had three of the Cougars’ ten 3-pointers in the game, hitting three of four attempts from beyond the arc. He had 17 points and was 1-of-4 from 3-point range in Houston’s loss to Arizona in the regular season.

Arizona is more of an offensive team that happens to also play solid defense. They’ve been one of the more consistent teams in basketball this season, hence their nine-week run as the No. 1 team in the country. Additionally, they rank third in KenPom's rankings for overall efficiency (Houston ranks fifth).

They went off script somewhat in their earlier win over Houston. Known more for their perimeter shooting, the Wildcats were just 3-of-12 from 3-point range. Instead, they attacked one of Houston’s strengths, its big, physical frontcourt, and dominated the paint, 38-20.

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My Pick: Houston ML

These are two of the best teams in the country. They are undoubtedly going to deliver an incredible game for fans. After watching Houston crank up the defensive intensity on Kansas while Arizona needed late offensive heroics to make the Final, I’m taking Houston to win outright.

Koa Peat’s return to the lineup for Arizona is a little concerning for Houston. He will undoubtedly give the Arizona offense a boost. But I’m still taking the Cougars to win outright as the best value play of the day.

My OVER/UNDER Pick: UNDER 138.5

The public is going the other way with 77% of tickets and 78% of the handle on the OVER. Yes, the OVER was 3-3 for Houston in its last six regular-season games. But the Cougars were also 3-8 in their last 11. The final score was UNDER the listed TOTAL in their regular-season matchup vs. Arizona.

It will be close, but with the intensity Houston’s defense put on display against Kansas, I think Houston will keep Arizona’s score low with the Wildcats returning the favor.