NCAA Big East Men's Tournament Final: No. 6 UConn Huskies vs. No. 13 St. John’s Red Storm Odds & Predictions (Mar. 14)

In conference tournaments, the general hope is for the two best teams in the conference to reach the final and battle for glory. That is certainly the case in today's Big East Tournament Final, with the St. John’s Red Storm facing longtime rival the UConn Huskies.

(Photo by Brian Fluharty/Getty Images)

These two teams had a pair of incredible battles in the regular season. Let’s take a closer look at how they got to the Big East Final, the betting line for the game, and our picks.

UConn and St. John’s Cruised Through the Big East Tournament Field

As the top two teams in the conference during the regular season, both UConn and St. John’s didn’t play until the quarterfinal round, the Red Storm against  Providence and the Huskies vs. Xavier. Neither was ever in danger of losing and cruised to easy wins: St. John’s 85, Providence 72, and UConn 93, Xavier 68.

In their semifinal game, St. John’s was once again in control throughout the game en route to a 78-68 win over Seton Hall. The same is true for the Huskies in the semifinal vs. Georgetown. They led the Hoyas 32-21 at halftime and went on to win 67-51.

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Big East Tournament Final Odds & Pick: UConn vs. St. John's

• Spread: UConn -2.5  (-120) | St. John’s +2.5  (+100)
• Moneyline: UConn -155 | St. John’s +130
• TOTAL: O/U 140.5 (-108/-112)

Odds via DraftKings

The two regular-season matchups between UConn and St. John’s could not have been more wildly different than they were. In the first, St. John’s pulled away in the second half after the score was tied at 39-39 at the break, to win 81-72. But in the second, it was all Connecticut. The Huskies dominated from the start, winning 72-40.

One of the key stats in the first was the difference in free throws. UConn hit five of 12 shots while St. John’s was 22-31. In the second, the Red Storm still led at the charity stripe, but just 13-17 compared to 9-11. Connecticut’s defense won the day in the second game, holding St. John’s to 11-of-56 shooting from the floor (20%) and 12 points in the paint to 42 for the Huskies.

Zuby Ejiofor, the Red Storm’s leading scorer (16.3 points per game), had 21 points in the first game and six in the second. UConn’s leading scorer, Solo Ball (13.8 points per game), was held to eight and 11 points in the two games. Alex Karaban (12.8 ppg) led the way in the loss with 17 points. Tarris Reed Jr. (13.6 ppg) led the way in Connecticut’s win with 20 points.

My Pick: UConn ML

St. John’s has not lost since the beatdown UConn gave them on Feb. 25. A five-game win streak can go a long way towards giving a team the confidence it needs against a quality opponent like the Huskies. But UConn’s half-court execution and dominance on the boards have been on display in their tournament games.

It is going to be a great game. But I feel like the Huskies figured something out in the second regular-season game vs. St. John’s. This game will not be a blowout like that one, but UConn walks away the winner.

The spread is small, but this game will be tight. Connecticut has not been a great ATS team this season, going 12-21 ATS while going 29-4 SU. With that in mind and considering how wildly different both regular-season games played out, I’ll take the moneyline rather than laying the points.

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My OVER/UNDER Pick: UNDER 140.5

Both teams play defense at a high level; each is ranked in the top 15 in defensive efficiency by KenPom. St. John’s will try to impose its will on the Huskies via half-court defense and pressure. UConn likes to control the pace and will try to keep possessions to a minimum.

The OVER was 16-16-1 for the Huskies this season and 13-20 for St. John’s. In the first regular season game, the final score (81-72) went over the TOTAL (143.5). But in the second, the final score (72-40) went UNDER the listed TOTAL for that game (145.5).

Bonus Big East Final Plays

• St. John’s Team Total Points UNDER 68.5:  -110 (DraftKings)
• Connecticut Team Total Points UNDER 72.5: -110 (DraftKings)

Both averaged well over their TOTAL during the season. But Big East Tournament Final games often turn into physical battles. Both teams already have reputations for playing tough, hard-nosed defense that forces low-scoring games. If history is any indication and the physicality ramps up, chances are good both will finish UNDER their listed TOTALS.

Both did so in the second regular-season game.  I like them both to finish UNDER today, as well.