(Photo by Brandon Sumrall/Getty Images)
On Saturday, April 5, at 6:09 p.m. EDT, the Florida Gators and Auburn Tigers will face off in the Final Four. Below, I’ll put together a Same Game Parlay and reveal the best college basketball bets today for this SEC-on-SEC matchup.
The Final Four only features No. 1 seeds. Along with Florida and Auburn, there’s Houston and Duke. This is the first time only No. 1 seeds have made the Final Four since 2008.
The Tigers are the overall No. 1 seed
They’ve beaten Alabama State, Creighton, Michigan, and Michigan State to get here. This is their first Final Four appearance since 2019 and their second of all time.
Against Michigan State, Auburn’s lead was never really in doubt. They were up 33-24 at halftime. Johni Broome put up 25 points and had 14 rebounds. He left briefly with an arm injury, which is worth monitoring in this game.
The Gators have won 10 straight games and haven’t lost since Feb. 25
In the tournament, they’ve beaten Norfolk State, UConn, Maryland, and Texas Tech. They last made the Final Four in 2014, and they last won a championship in 2006 and 2007.
Against Texas Tech, Florida shot 43.9% from the floor and 37.5% from 3-point range. Walter Clayton Jr. had 30 points.
Below, you’ll find college basketball prop bets and the point spread through this Same Game Parlay.
The odds for this one are +335.
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College Basketball Predictions Today SGP: Florida vs Auburn
DraftKings College Basketball Best Bets Today SGP: +335
- Florida -2.5
- Tahaad Pettiford 12+ Points
- Walter Clayton Jr. 3+ 3-Point Shots Made
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Florida -2.5
According to KenPom, Florida and Auburn are the No. 3 and No. 4 overall teams heading into this one. Florida is second in adjusted offensive efficiency, averaging 129.1 points per 100 possessions, and 10th in adjusted defensive efficiency, surrendering 93.0 points per 100 possessions.
As for Auburn, they’re third in adjusted offensive efficiency, averaging 127.6 points per 100 possessions. In adjusted defensive efficiency, they’re eighth, allowing 92.3 per 100 possessions.
These are two programs from the SEC, and they played each other earlier this year.
Florida held a 21-point lead in that game and ultimately won 90-81. They were playing at Auburn in that one.
As we’ve seen, a lot of Auburn’s production comes from Broome. I think he’ll have a more challenging matchup in this one against Florida as they have big men that’ll challenge him more, like Alex Condon and Thomas Haugh.
Not only that, but as mentioned, Broome was dealing with a bit of an injury, so it makes you wonder if he’ll be able to be as physical down low as he’d like to be.
There’s something else worth noting about the players behind Broome: Tahaad Pettiford, Mile Kelly, and Denver Jones all average more 3-point shots per game than 2-point attempts.
Chad Baker-Mazara is close (4.5 2-point attempts to 4.0 3-point attempts).
I bring this up because, over the last three games, Florida has held teams to a 3-point shooting percentage of just 32%.
In addition, Auburn has shot under 29% from 3-point range over its last two games.
I’m going with Florida in this one. They’ve been dominant lately. They’ve won 10 straight, including the SEC tournament, and have the players to match up well with Broome and thwart the 3-point shots.
Tahaad Pettiford 12+ Points
For the first college basketball player prop of this Same Game Parlay, I’m taking Pettiford at 12+ points.
Throughout the tournament, he’s had 16 or more in three of four games.
Against Alabama State, Creighton, and Michigan, he shot 50% from the floor or better each time out. He also shot 6.7% from 3-point range against Creighton.
He took a step back against a tough Spartans defense, scoring just 10 points.
However, he was 4 of 12 from the field (33.3%), including 2 of 6 on 2-point shots and 2 of 6 on 3-point shots.
He also had just one free-throw attempt and missed it.
Florida is a bit squishier on defense than Michigan State and the Tigers will need score to keep pace.
Pettiford also played 27 minutes against Michigan State, which was his lowest amount of time played in a game throughout the tournament.
I expect him to rebound in this one and get to 12. He was at 10 on an off night compared to the rest of the tournament. On top of that, he averages 11.7 points per game.
Walter Clayton Jr. 3+ 3-Point Shots Made
Clayton Jr. is the lifeblood of the Gators offense, and I think he’ll have a fantastic game and bank three or more 3-point shots.
So far this tournament, he’s had three or more made 3-point shots in three of four outings.
He fell short against Maryland, making 2 of 6.
Overall, though, he’s made 14 of 31 3-point shots (45.1%).
This is certainly better than his season-long percentage of 38.5%, and I’m riding his hot hand.
He’s had 22 points or more in four of his last five games. He’s coming off a 30-point outing against Texas Tech, making 3 of 8 3-point shots.
Auburn has typically been good against the 3-point shot, allowing opponents to shoot just 29.6% from beyond the arc, but over their last three games, that percentage has increased to 35.8%.
Clayton Jr. will lead Florida to the national title game.
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