On Saturday, April 5, at 8:49 p.m. EDT, the Duke Blue Devils and Houston Rockets will square off in the Final Four. Below, I’ll craft a Same Game Parlay for this one and reveal the best college basketball bets today.
Coming into this one, Duke and Houston are one-half of the remaining Final Four teams. All four remaining teams are No. 1 seeds, and that’s the first time that has happened since 2008.
(Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images)
Duke has been one of the best college basketball picks in all tournaments, beating Mount St. Mary’s, Baylor, Arizona, and, most recently, Alabama.
They beat Alabama 85-65. In that game, Cooper Flagg, Khaman Maluach, Tyrese Proctor, and Kon Knueppel each had double-digit points, with Knueppel leading the way with 21.
As for Houston, they’ve been among the NCAA basketball expert picks to make a run
Thus far, they’ve beaten SIU Edwardsville, Gonzaga, Purdue, and Tennessee.
Against Tennessee, Houston held them to a mere 15 points in the first half. Tennessee couldn't get any shots to fall as they finished with a field goal percentage of 28.8% and sunk just 5 of 29 3-point shots (17.2%).
You’ll find college basketball prop bets and the point spread through this Same Game Parlay.
- The odds for this one are +375
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College Basketball Predictions Today SGP: Duke vs Houston
DraftKings College Basketball Best Bets Today SGP: +375
- Duke -5.5
- L.J. Cryer 12+ Points
- Cooper Flagg 5+ Assists
- Kon Knueppel 12+ Points
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Duke -5.5
Duke is battling Houston, which ranks first in adjusted defensive efficiency, allowing just 87.4 points per 100 possessions.
Duke is first in adjusted offensive efficiency, averaging 130.1 points per 100 possessions.
Looking at the other side of the ball for each squad, Duke also has a top-four defense, allowing 90.5 points per 100 possessions.
As for Houston, they’re 10th in adjusted offensive efficiency, averaging 123.9 points per 100 possessions.
When it comes down to it, yes, Houston has an excellent defense, but Duke’s is just as good as Duke also has far more offensive firepower than Houston.
Just look at Duke’s shooting success in the tournament: They’ve shot 50% or better in each game from the floor. In two of those, they shot higher than 60%.
Some may point to Arizona’s 93 points as a blueprint for what Houston could do, considering Arizona is 12th in adjusted offensive efficiency.
That may be true, but Arizona also shot 46.2% from 3-point range, a massive increase from their season-long percentage of 33.8%.
I think Duke gets it done relatively easily and wins by eight or more.
They’re simply too good and way too efficient to bet against.
L.J. Cryer 12+ Points
If Houston wants any chance of winning this one, it’ll be because of Cryer.
Cryer averages 15.4 points per game. His 3-point shooting is a big part of his repertoire.
He averages 7.1 attempts per game and makes 3.0 per outing (41.9%).
Just by sticking with his averages, he’s already at nine points.
Duke has been strong defensively, but teams are shooting 3-point shots with a bit more success recently.
Over the last three games, opponents against Duke have shot 33.7% from beyond the arc, an increase from their 30.8% season-long mark.
Cryer is the Cougars main scorer, and 12 points is a low bar. He's scored 12 or more in three of his last five games.
This season, he's had 12 or more points in 26 of 38 outings.
Cooper Flagg 5+ Assists
While I do believe Duke wins this one, the key will be moving the ball around to find those open looks, and I think Flagg will shine.
He leads the team in assists with 4.2 per game.
Houston’s defense will be prepared for Flagg to take over, and seeing the way he’s played this season, he’s not someone who will try to go for 20 every night. He will if he needs to, but he’s also willing to do what it takes to win.
Interestingly, over the last three games, Houston has allowed 17 assists per game, a noticeable increase from the season-long average of 11.3.
It's also worth noting that Flagg has had five assists or more in 17 of 36 games, so it's far from unheard of for him to do this.
Look for Flagg to dish the ball away as Houston's defense swarms him, allowing other guys to find favorable looks and matchups.
Kon Knueppel 12+ Points
Speaking of guys that he’ll help find favorable matchups, I’m taking Knueppel to score 12 or more.
We’ve seen him step up massively recently, scoring 12 or more in each of his last three games.
He also had 18 in the ACC title game against Louisville.
This season, he’s averaging 14.4 points per game.
He’s shooting 40.1% from 3-point range, 47.7% from the field, and 56.9% on 2-point shots.
I think Knueppel will lead the team in scoring as Houston looks to keep Flagg at bay.
However, it won’t matter—Flagg will find Knueppel, who will ensure points are scored.
If looking for March Madness tournament schedules, matchup breakdowns, and expert picks, head to our
March Madness section.
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