NCAA Tournament First Four Best Bets: Odds & Predictions for NC State vs. Texas, UMBC vs. Howard

The wait is finally over. Yes, I know; that statement sounds so cliché and can be applied to so many different things. But, you know, good things do come to those who wait….Okay, I promise, no more clichés. Let’s talk about the odds for this year’s NCAA Tournament First Four games and make some predictions.

(Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)

Let’s start by talking about two teams most of us probably hadn’t heard about until we filled out our brackets for this year and the first game of the NCAA Tournament, the UMBC Retrievers vs. Howard Bison.

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NCAA Men's First Four Best Bets & Odds for Mar. 17–18

No. 16 UMBC Retrievers vs. No. 16 Howard Bison

• Spread: UMBC -1 (-110) | Howard +1 (-110)
• Moneyline: UMBC (-120) | Howard (+100)
• TOTAL: O/U 139.5 (-110/-110)

Statistically speaking, these teams are very similar. Howard averaged 77.5 points per game (No. 138 in the country); UMBC averaged 76.2 (No. 166). The Bison allowed 67.8 points per game (No. 38) while the Retrievers allowed 67 (No. 28). Both were 7-1 ATS in their last eight games. Both play solid defense, but offensive play is another story.

Howard’s offense is efficient, shooting 46% from the field and 35% from 3-point range. They like to pick up the pace, but don’t rely on it. However, the Bison can be their own worst enemy. They rank No. 313 in the country in fouls (19.2 per game). But they do well at the line when they get fouled; the Bison rank No. 20 in made free throws with 18.7 per game.

As for UMBC, they go for a balanced offensive attack that is not reliant on one player and love to work the perimeter. They were 10-26 from three-point range in the America East Tournament Finals against Vermont, with DJ Armstrong accounting for seven of them (7-9). Jah’Likai King leads the Retrievers in scoring with 13.9 points per game, followed by DJ Armstrong with 13.2 points per game, and Ace Valentine with 12.

The Bison are led by Cedric Taylor III and Bryce Harris, both of whom averaged 17.1 points per game this season.

• NCAA Tournament First Four Best Bet: Howard ML (+100)

I’m going with an old saying for this one, “Offense wins games while defense wins championships.” Their defenses got them here. But I like the Howard guard duo more than the UMBC trio. Plus, at plus money odds, picking Howard to win outright is the best value play.

No. 11 NC State vs. No. 11 Texas Longhorns

• Spread: Texas -1.5  (+102) | NC State +1.5  (-124)
• Moneyline: Texas (-111) | NC State (-108)
• TOTAL: O/U 157.5 (-115/-105)

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The Longhorns and Wolfpack faced off during the Southwest Maui Invitational back in November. Texas held a 10-point lead at the half, 47-37. While NC State put up a heck of a fight in the second half, 60-55, it wasn’t enough to overcome the deficit, giving the underdog Longhorns (+1.5) the outright win.

NC State ended up being more of a perimeter-shooting team during the season, but the Wolfpack dominated the paint in this game (46-20), while Texas killed it on the perimeter (16-32 from 3-point range to 9-19 for NC State). Both teams had foul trouble (NC State—27, Texas—20), resulting in the Wolfpack going 20-28 from the charity stripe and the Longhorns going 28-33.

Quadir Copeland led the way with 28 points in that game, but tied with Paul McNeil Jr. and Ven-Allen Lubin for the team lead this season with 13.9 points per game. Jordan Pope led the way for Texas with 28 points after hitting seven of 13 three-pointers. But Dailyn Swain led the team in scoring during the season with 17.8 points per game.

• NCAA Tournament First Four Best Bet: OVER 157.5 (-115)

From a personnel and statistical standpoint, it looks like we are in for an exciting, high-scoring game. Both have offenses that are capable of putting up a lot of points, but neither plays especially well on defense. This one may not be as high-scoring as the first, but the final will go OVER this TOTAL.

No. 16 Lehigh Mountain Hawks vs. No. 16 Prairie View A&M Panthers

• Spread: Lehigh -3.5 (-110)| Prairie View A&M +3.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Lehigh -166 | Prairie View A&M +138
• TOTAL: O/U 143.5 (-110/-110)

This will be the first time these two teams have ever played against each other. Over the years, certain patterns have presented in such situations.

For instance, the favored teams tend to win more (65-70%). Why? Since there is no established familiarity, talent gaps tend to matter more since underdogs are less likely to take advantage of any weaknesses the favored team has. However, when underdogs do pull out a win, it’s because they get hot from the floor, especially from three-point range, and figure out how to disrupt the other team’s pace of play.

Lehigh is a solid three-point shooting team, ranking No. 71 in the nation in 3-point percentage at 35.9% and No. 173 in made three-pointers at 7.9 per game. But Prairie View A&M has been decent at defending the perimeter, allowing teams to make 33.5% of their attempts (No. 165).

Dontae Horne has led the Panthers in scoring this season with 20.2 points per game, followed by Tai’Reon Joseph with 18.2. Nasir Whitlock leads Lehigh with 21 points per game, followed by Hank Alvey with 15.

• NCAA Tournament First Four Best Bet: OVER 143.5 (-110)

OVERs tend to have an edge in first-time matchups because defenses are less likely to be prepared for opponents' tempo, tendencies, and overall style of play. Since neither team has been particularly good or consistent on defense, I’m leaning towards the offenses having solid days and the final score going OVER the TOTAL.

No. 11 SMU Mustangs vs. No. 11 Miami (OH) RedHawks

• Spread: SMU -6.5 (-120) | Miami (OH) +6.5 (-120)
• Moneyline: SMU (-310) | Miami (OH) (+245)
• TOTAL: O/U 167.5 (-115/-104)

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While their schedule has an impact on how well the team played, there are aspects of Miami (OH)’s gameplay that can’t be ignored. They have the No. 2 offense in the country with 90.7 points per game. They shot the ball well, 52.4% from the field (No. 1) and 39.2% from three-point range (No. 8).

The Mustangs were a solid offensive team this season (84.2 points per game, No. 23) but struggled on defense (77.6 points allowed per game, No. 286). They ranked No. 194 in perimeter defense, allowing teams to make 33.9% of their shots.

• NCAA Tournament First Four Best Bet: Miami (OH) +6.5 (-120)

There is something to be said for beating up on a bad schedule, but I don’t think Miami (OH) is getting enough credit for the success they’ve had. Since SMU has had some issues on defense, I don’t think they’ll shut the RedHawks offense down. The Mustangs may still win, but Miami (OH) will keep it close.