NCAA Tournament First Round Best Bets: Kansas vs. Cal Baptist Odds, Player Props, & Picks (Mar. 20)

Day One of the Round of 64 featured some exciting games, many of which lived up to the “madness” the NCAA Tournament is often known for. Favorites only went 9-7 outright and 7-9 ATS. No. 5 Wisconsin was the highest seed beaten outright. So, it was a good day for the underdog, but will that be the case today?

(Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images)

With that in mind, let’s take a good look at a No. 13 vs. No. 4 seed contest: the California Baptist Lancers vs. the Kansas Jayhawks.

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NCAA Tournament Odds, First Round: California Baptist Lancers vs. Kansas Jayhawks

• Spread: California Baptist +14.5 (-115) | Kansas -14.5 (-105)
• Moneyline: California Baptist +810 | Kansas -1600
• Total: O/U 140.5 (-115/-105)

Odds via FanDuel

California Baptist Lancers

Winning the conference tournament (a first in the WAC) and qualifying for the NCAA Tournament makes this season one of the most successful in school history. But can the Lancers do more?

If they are going to, it will have to be the defense leading the way. California Baptist ranks No. 255 in the country in scoring (73.0 PPG), does not shoot a high percentage (43.2%, No. 293), and they don’t make a high number of 3-pointers per game (6.4, No. 305).

However, they are among the best in the country at crashing the offensive glass (13.88 per game, No. 8). CBU is a solid all-around rebounding team, averaging just under 40 per game (No. 22). Yeah, so they aren’t going to score a ton of points, but neither will their opponent. The Lancers' defense ranked No. 31 in the country this year, allowing 67.6 points per game. They hold teams to 41.7% from the floor (No. 48) and 29.7% from 3-point range.

To win, California Baptist will absolutely need Dominique Daniels Jr. to have a day. He has averaged 23.2 points per game, but that won't be enough against a solid Kansas team. Their defense will lead the way, but it will need some help from the offense. He has had seven games with 30+ points a game and two with 40+ points.

Slowing the pace down is imperative. If Kansas can force CBU to pick up the tempo, the Lancers are in trouble. California Baptist needs to force turnovers and not let the Jayhawks get too many open looks at the basket.

If they can do all of that…they just might record an epic first-round upset.

Kansas Jayhawks

Kansas comes into the Tournament ranked No. 17 in the AP Poll with a 23-10, 12-6 Big 12 record. The best way to describe the Jayhawks' season would be to say it was kind of weird.

They had several games where they were absolutely brilliant, like the 84-63 win over then-No. 2 Iowa State, the 82-78 win that knocked Arizona from the No. 1 spot in the AP Poll, and the 69-56 win over No. 5 Houston. However, for every brilliant game, there was a not-so-brilliant one, like losses to Arizona State (70-60), Cincinnati (84-68), and No. 5 Iowa State (74-56).

Kansas can best be described in one word—inconsistent.

When everything works, they are a brilliant team that is tough to beat and can compete with the best in the nation. But with the structured, slower, half-court offense they play, there is no room for error. By controlling the pace and slowing the game down, the Jayhawks can amplify the impact of every mistake their opponents make, but it doesn’t give them the grace they need to overcome their own mishaps. If their shots don’t fall, they are in trouble.

They can be turnover-prone (No. 102 in the country; 10.7 per game), and don’t force many turnovers. (No. 336 in turnovers; No. 310 in steals).

Darryn Peterson missed a lot of time this season but averaged 19.8 points per game in 22 games played. He is followed by Tre White with 13.8 points per game and Flory Bidunga with 13.5 points and 9.2 rebounds per game.

• My Pick: CBU +14.5  (FanDuel)

I don’t know if I can have enough faith in the Lancers to win this outright since they only played one ranked team and got destroyed in that game. But Kansas’ shooting is way too streaky and unreliable for my taste. It is unlikely to get any better against a solid California Baptist defense.

CBU may upset the Jayhawks, but it will certainly keep it close.

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California Baptist vs. Kansas Player Props

• Dominique Daniels Jr., OVER 20.5 Points at -120 (FanDuel)

Daniels has averaged 23.2 points per game and has gone OVER this TOTAL in his last six games and in nine of his last ten. His offensive production will be key to CBU winning this game or keeping it close.  Kansas has a solid defense, so it will not be easy. But he typically goes well over this mark. Since his doing so is crucial to my game pick, I’m going to double down and take the OVER.

• Darryn Peterson, UNDER 21.5 at -120 (FanDuel)

The streaky nature of Kansas’ shooting and CBU’s defense has me against even considering the OVER for this one. He’s gone OVER this mark just four times in his last 13 games. Against one of the top-ranked defenses in the country, I’d recommend keeping expectations low for him.