NCAA Tournament Round of 32 Best Bets: Kentucky-Iowa State, Florida-Iowa, Alabama-Texas Tech

The NCAA Tournament rolls on with the second half of the Round of 32. We saw only one March Madness upset Saturday, with No. 11 seed Texas taking down No. 3 seed Gonzaga. Will favorites dominate the field again on Sunday? We’ll discuss a few possibilities in this edition of NCAA Tournament Best Bets.

(Photo by James Gilbert/Getty Images)

Let’s get things started by taking a hard look at the No. 7 seed Kentucky Wildcats vs. the No. 2 seed Iowa State Cyclones.

All the odds used for making these picks can be found at FanDuel.

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NCAA Tournament Best Bets: Kentucky Wildcats vs. Iowa State Cyclones Odds & Prediction (March 22)

• Spread: Kentucky +4.5 (-102) | Iowa State -4.5 (-120)
• Moneyline: Kentucky +172 | Iowa State -210
• TOTAL: O/U 146.5 (-105/-115)

Odds vis FanDuel

This game may be the best candidate for a potential upset with the Cyclones likely without the services of star forward Joshua Jefferson. Jefferson went down with a left ankle/lower leg injury in Iowa State’s NCAA Tournament opener vs. the No. 15-seed, Tennessee State. He had to leave the game and was later seen on crutches, but, according to reports, X-rays were negative.

His status for today’s game is considered “doubtful.”

Jefferson, a senior, averages 16.4 points and 7.4 rebounds per game. He is not Iowa State’s leading scorer, but he is one of the top scoring threats for the Cyclones and one of the team’s best playmakers. It will be a major loss for Iowa State if he can’t play. Iowa State did fine on the offensive end without him in the first round, with 50+ points in each half. But its No. 13-ranked defense (65.2 points allowed per game) gave up 74 points to Tennessee State.

If Jefferson is out, the Cyclones lose the glue that often keeps things together on the court. Iowa State will lose its size advantage, and its other forwards are not as impactful on either end of the court. Kentucky will likely look to attack the post early and often while trying to force mismatches and create easy shots.

The Wildcats will have an advantage on the glass and will look to crash the glass in an effort to capitalize on second-chance points.

My March Madness Round of 32 Pick: Kentucky ML at +172

Jefferson’s absence will force Iowa State to be a little more reliant on its guards, who are not a strength for the Cyclones. Kentucky has the athleticism to push the tempo and exploit the mismatches created with Jefferson sidelined. Iowa State has been a defense-oriented team all season. Without him against Tennessee State, it didn’t look like a top-15 defense.

Iowa State still has a talented roster, and it should be a close game. But it is one the Wildcats can win outright (but if you prefer to bet cautiously, take the points).

NCAA Tournament Best Bets: Florida Gators vs. Iowa Hawkeyes Odds & Prediction (March 22)

• Spread: Florida -9.5 (-120) | Iowa +9.5 (-102)
• Moneyline: Florida -550 | Iowa +400
• TOTAL: O/U 144.5 (-105/-115)

Odds vis FanDuel

Iowa knocked off Clemson in the first round despite only shooting 38% from the floor and getting just 16 points from senior guard Bennett Stirtz (19.9 points per game this season). Stirtz went 4 for 17 from the field but went 3 for 10 from 3-point range and added five from the charity stripe (5-6).

Clemson actually shot better than the Hawkeyes from the floor and via 3-point range. But Iowa was able to take advantage of the Tigers' 21 fouls and went 24 for 31 from the free-throw line while Clemson went 8 for 12.

Much of what Iowa does on the offensive end begins, if not ends, with Stirtz. So Florida will undoubtedly try to minimize his impact. The Gators will probably also try to use their bigger, more athletic guards to pick up the pace while their frontcourt dominates the paint (No. 2 in the country in points in the paint this season and No. 3 in second-chance points).

It will not be shocking to see Florida guards Boogie Fland (11.7 points per game) and Xavier Lee (11.4 points per game) shoot short range jumpers all day long while Thomas Haugh (17 points per game ) and Alex Condon (14.9 point per game) clean up on the boards with some help from Ruenen Chinyelu (11.5 rebounds per game) and second chance points.

During Big Ten play, the Cyclones allowed opponents to hit 56.5% of shots from inside the arc.

My March Madness Round of 32 Pick: Florida -9.5

Iowa’s offense is not going to be able to keep up with Florida’s. The Gators know this, which is why they’ll push the pace against a Cyclones team that has not had a 70-possession game this season; Florida averaged 70.7 per game. As long as the Gators can neutralize Stiritz and control the tempo, they’ll cover this spread.

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NCAA Tournament Best Bets: Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Odds & Prediction (March 22)

• Spead: Texas Tech -1.5 (-102) | Alabama +1.5 (-124)
• Moneyline: Texas Tech -110 | Alabama -110
• TOTAL: O/U 164.5 (-110/-110)

Odds vis FanDuel

The Red Raiders were supposed to fall off once they lost future lottery pick JT Toppin to a late season-ending injury. They lost the game he was injured in, but then rattled off three consecutive victories — including a win over No. 4 Iowa State (82-73). But then Texas Tech lost to TCU and BYU to end the regular season and got bounced out of the Big 12 Tournament by the Cyclones, 75-53.

Time for the downfall, finally?

Not yet. The Red Raiders had an easy time in the first round vs. Akron (91-71). But they will absolutely face a bigger challenge against Alabama’s No. 1-ranked offense (91.7 points per game). Like every team Alabama has faced this season, the Tide defense will help keep Texas Tech in it (83.1 points allowed per game).

Of course, when you lead the country in scoring, defense can take a back seat in most games.  However, Texas Tech is almost as good at what powers the Tide offense as Alabama itself: 3-pointers. The Crimson Tide has averaged 35.4 attempts per game (No. 1 in the country), 12.4 made per game (No. 2), and shoot 35.7% from behind the line. Texas Tech doesn’t attempt as many but makes 11.5 (No. 6), and shoot 39.7% (No. 2).

Alabama will miss Aden Holloway, but still has Labaron Phillon Jr. to create shots off the dribble and lead the offense.

Jaylen Petty led the way for the Red Raiders against Akron, hitting 9 of 14 shots, including 5-7 from 3-point range. Phillon Jr. led the way against Hofstra with 29 points (10 for 18 from the field, 3 for 7 from 3-point range).

My March Madness Round of 32 Pick: OVER 164.5

Both teams are going to let it fly from deep in this game. Neither is terrible at defending the perimeter. But the sheer volume of attempts will result in enough made to drive the score up. I doubt Texas Tech’s defense (No. 136 in scoring) will slow down Bama much, if at all. Alabama’s 350th-ranked unit will not slow down Texas Tech at all.