NCAA Tournament Round of 32 Best Bets: TCU-Duke, Texas A&M-Houston, Texas-Gonzaga (Mar. 21)

The first weekend of the men's NCAA Tournament is well underway, and it will feature some incredible games for fans to enjoy and bet on. If the second-round games are anything like the first, it’s going to be a challenging weekend for bettors. But we are here to help.

(Photo by Lance King/Getty Images)

Here are my best bets for Saturday’s second round NCAA Tournament action.

Men's NCAA Basketball Best Bets for Saturday, Mar. 21

No. 9 TCU Horned Frogs vs. No. 1 Duke Blue Devils

• Spread: TCU +11.5 (-104) | Duke -11.5 (-118)
• Moneyline: TCU +590 | Duke -900
• TOTAL: O/U 139.5 (-110/-110)

Odds via FanDuel

It seems strange to think we may need to be concerned about Duke this early in the Tournament, but after the first round, it’s a legit concern. The issue isn’t so much that they only beat Siena by six points, 71-65. But a player admitted at halftime that they felt it was going to be a cakewalk.

Championship-caliber teams have stronger mental fortitude than that.

Now, they did get it together in the second half and controlled the game going down the stretch. But a similar outing against a solid TCU team could be disastrous.

The Horned Frogs are a much more physical and balanced team than Siena. They will likely be looking to punch Duke in the mouth (metaphorically, of course) from the start. TCU is not going to waste possessions, protects the ball well, and rebounds well off the offensive glass.

They are not going to shoot a ton of threes. But TCU will make sure Duke can’t take a second off on the defensive end. David Punch leads the way on the scoreboard for the Horned Frogs with 14.4 points per game, followed by Xavier Edmonds with 12.7.

TCU is a capable defensive team, but the Horned Frogs can’t count on Duke having another lackluster night from the floor (41%) like the Blue Devils had against Siena. Cameron Boozer shot only 4-11 from the floor but still led the team in scoring after hitting 13 of 14 free throws.

Second-chance points are a big part of TCU’s game, but they may be hard to come by against a Duke team that ranks No. 13 in the country in rebounds (40.37 per game) and 13th in defensive rebounds (27.8 per game).

NCAA Tournament Round of 32 Pick: TCU +11.5

I feel like it may be wishful thinking that TCU will beat the No. 1 seed and the No. 1 team in the nation and earn the school’s first trip to the Sweet 16. Yes, Duke was flat in the first round against an inferior team and looked vulnerable. But it is unrealistic to think the Blue Devils will come out flat again. They have too much talent to do that.

However, I don't think this spread gives TCU any credit. The Horned Frogs will make this game more of a challenge than a double-digit spread would indicate.

No. 10 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Houston Cougars

• Spread: Texas A&M +10.5 (-115) | Houston -10.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Texas A&M +400 | Houston -550
• TOTAL: O/U 142.5 (-115/-105)

Odds via FanDuel

This will be a tempting game for some to overlook. The Aggies were just 21-11 this season (11-7 in SEC play). They didn’t exactly bring their “A” game when playing ranked teams this season (1-4). However, they are a team that can sneak up on you if you’re not paying attention.

You look at their scoring average (87 points per game) and think they must be a smaller, fast-paced/up-tempo team that thrives in transition. But the Aggies' offense is more about making use of their size in the frontcourt to wear down opposing forwards and get second-chance points. They are not a bad shooting team, but they’re not a great one either (45.8%). But they’re okay with that because part of the game plan is to crash the offensive glass and create second-chance points.

However, if a team has size of its own to pack the paint with and can force Texas A&M to take more jumpers, the Aggies are often in trouble.

Houston will likely try to do just that. The Cougars have been one of the best teams in the country this season, largely because of their defense (No. 2 in the country, allowing 62.4 points per game). Houston also has some size in the front court and will use it to help slow the pace down, taking away from the volume shooting the Aggies rely on.

NCAA Tournament Round of 32 Pick: Texas A&M +10.5

This game reminds me of the last time Houston and Texas A&M faced off, which was the second round of the 2023-24 NCAA Tournament. Houston (-8.5) was expected to cruise to a relatively easy win against the Aggies. But Texas A&M put up an incredible fight. Houston had to take them to overtime to get the win, 100-95.

Texas A&M does not have the same level of talent as Houston. But the Aggies will do like they did that year and make the Cougars earn it. Houston should win, but not by double digits.

Thrillzz

4.8/5

March Madness Picks at Thrillzz 🏀

• Excellent choice of sports.
• Pre-match and live picks.
• Strong community vibe.

400% Extra: Deposit $10 Get $50

Claim Now

No. 11 Texas Longhorns vs. No. 3 Gonzaga Bulldogs

• Spread: Texas +6.5 (-112) | Gonzaga -6.5 (-108)
• Moneyline: Texas +215 | Gonzaga -265
• TOTAL: O/U 147.5 (-105/-115)

Odds via FanDuel

Momentum has worked wonders for No. 11 seeds that play in the First Four in the past. Texas fans are likely hoping that trend will continue today against Gonzaga. Luckily, the Bulldogs are not equipped to exploit one of Texas's biggest weaknesses. The Longhorns can’t defend against the three (No. 290 in 3-point percentage defense).

That works out fine for Texas fans because the Bulldogs are just as bad at shooting threes. Not so much bad at it, but they don’t try (No. 301 in the country in attempts, 19.6 per game).

Texas prefers to get physical with teams and pound away at the frontcourt with its size. That certainly worked against BYU, as the Longhorns won the rebound battle 40-31. Of course, it may not be as easy in this game because the Bulldogs are also a solid rebounding team (Texas—37.94 per game, Gonzaga—40.06).

With one of the team’s top scoring threats still out with an injury (Braden Huff—17.8 points per game), the Bulldogs will lean on forward Graham Ike (19.7 points per game) and guards Tyon Grant-Foster (11.2 points per game) and Davis Fogle (8.7 points per game).

NCAA Tournament Round of 32 Pick: UNDER 147.5

I’m reluctant to pick a winner here for two reasons. Texas is capable of beating the Bulldogs but needs certain things to go its way, i.e., the rebound battle. But Gonzaga is just as good on the boards. However, since neither team shoots threes at a relevant rate and both can play good defense, I like the score to be relatively low.