NCAA Women's Elite 8 Best Best: TCU vs. South Carolina Odds & Prediction (March 30)

Tonight marks the final matchup of the NCAA Women's Elite 8. In this article, I will highlight my top bets and predictions for TCU vs. South Carolina on March 30.

(Photo by Ron Jenkins/Getty Images)

Led by head coach Mark Campbell, TCU is back in the Elite 8 for a second consecutive season. Last year was headlined by Hailey Van Lith, but the team ultimately lost to Texas. Under the Campbell era, this program continues to dance after a 14-year NCAA Tournament drought from 2010 to 2024.

This year's storyline highlights point guard Olivia Miles, who decided to forgo the 2025 WNBA Draft. Instead, she transferred from Notre Dame to TCU. Stating she's found her "joy back," Miles and TCU have once again made headlines as one of the top teams in the tournament. The program also saw Marta Suarez enter the transfer portal from California.

Finishing 32-5 on the season, TCU lost to West Virginia, 62-53, in the Big 12 Tournament. Campbell has become a great resource in developing players and giving them the confidence to perform at the highest level. Call it the year of the transfers—Clara Silva additionally transferred to TCU from Kentucky. All five of its starters transferred to the program at some point or another in their careers.

NCAA Women's Elite 8 Matchup: TCU vs. South Carolina

Led by head coach Dawn Staley, South Carolina continues to remind folks why they are one of the most prominent programs in the country. Headed to its sixth-straight Elite 8, Staley and company are seeking a fourth NCAA title, and the first since 2023. Losing to UConn in the championship game last season, South Carolina is right back where oddsmakers predicted them to be.

With a 34-3 record, South Carolina finished first in the SEC, but lost to Texas in the conference tournament matchup. Led by fifth-year senior Raven Johnson and sophomore Joyce Edwards, the program very much benefited from senior transfers Madina Okot (Mississippi State) and Ta'Niya Latson (Florida State). Okot was a crucial pickup given that Chloe Kitts was ruled out for the season.

Today, No. 3 TCU Horned Frogs (32-5) will face No. 1 South Carolina Gamecocks (34-3) in Sacramento Region 4. Both are in separate conferences, and the squads have met just once. In that matchup, the Gamecocks defeated the Horned Frogs 85-52 in December 2024.

As mentioned in my previous article, oddsmakers have UConn (-250) as the overwhelming favorites to repeat as NCAA champions on FanDuel. While UCLA (+500) is up next, Texas and South Carolina share the same odds (+800) to win. A long shot to the championship is TCU (+250000).

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NCAA Women's Elite 8 Betting Odds Are Current As Of March 30 at 3 P.M. ET

If you're betting on the Women's NCAA Elite 8 matchup featuring TCU and South Carolina, welcome in!

Set to begin at 9 p.m. ET, the matchup will take place at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California, and will air on ESPN.

South Carolina is tabbed as a 14.5-point spread favorite and -2000 on the moneyline. The total (over/under) is set at 133.5 points.

Let's take a further look at my best bets, picks, and predictions for TCU vs. South Carolina. Before that, here are the betting odds for tonight's showdown on March 30.

NCAA Women's Elite 8 Best Bet: TCU vs. South Carolina Betting Odds for March 30 (FanDuel)

• Moneyline: TCU: +920 | South Carolina: -2000
• Spread: TCU +14.5  (-105) | South Carolina -14.5 (-115)
• Total: Over 133.5 (-110) | Under 133.5 (-110)

TCU Horned Frogs vs. South Carolina Gamecocks Starting Five

TCU

Olivia Miles | Taylor Bigby | Clara Silva | Marta Suarez | Donovyn Hunter

SOUTH CAROLINA

Raven Johnson | Ta'Niya Latson | Tessa Johnson | Joyce Edwards | Madina Okot

NCAA Women's Elite 8 Prediction for Monday, March 30: TCU vs. South Carolina

TCU vs. South Carolina Best Bet

• South Carolina -14.5 (-115 DraftKings)

South Carolina -14.5

The Gamecocks get their toughest opponent of the tournament in the Horned Frogs. 4-3 against top-25 teams, TCU had impressive wins over Baylor and West Virginia. It's hard to argue that anyone's playing better than Olivia Miles through the NCAA Tournament (19.2, 12.0 rebounds, 10.0 assists, 1.7 steals). Combine her performances with Marta Suarez, who delivered 33 points and 10 rebounds against Virginia.

And yes, I know TCU has a mean defense. They limit opponents to 56.3 points per game, and rank No. 10 in adjusted defensive rating (71.2). They enter this game with the second-best opponent field goal percentage (33.6%) and a 27.3% from beyond the arc. TCU has the talent and the defense to keep up with South Carolina. What I'm not sold on is their lack of depth, as Campbell primarily runs a seven-deep roster. But let's face it—the starting five are playing nearly 40 minutes per game each.

Another concern is the lack of offense in the 79-69 victory over Virginia. Miles and Suarez combined for 61 points, 20 rebounds, and 11 assists. While they are driving the success of the team, the rest of the starting five shot just 18-34. Suarez took 25 shots, and Miles, 14.

TCU isn't a terrible 3-point shooting team (35.7%), and they boast a 36.8% 3-point rate. But can limited depth and two stars keep up with South Carolina's defense? The Gamecocks allow just 57.6 points per game, ranking No. 3 in defensive rating (64.2). With Raven Johnson set as the primary defender, I can't imagine shots will come easily for Miles. She's an elite facilitator, but can others step up?

Two Top Defenses, but Trust South Carolina's Depth

The Gamecocks don't have as much depth as last year, but Staley has a rotation of at least eight players logging 10 or more minutes in the last game. Whether that will change, I'm not sure, but Staley is a genius at squeezing the potential out of each and every player.

South Carolina can beat teams in numerous ways. This is a team that has a ton of versatility, especially with the way Latson and Johnson can get to the rim. Overall, the Gamecocks have a more well-balanced starting five and size.  Not only did Latson and Johnson combine for 56 points in the 94-58 win over Oklahoma, but all players on the roster scored but one.

Offensively, this Gamecocks squad puts up 87.3 points per game, ranking No. 19 in the nation in 3-point percentage (35.7%). We haven't even talked about Tessa Johnson yet. I'm reminiscing about the LSU game where Kim Mulkey notably shouted, "Who can guard Tessa?"

This team has more depth, and its core five of Edwards, Latson, Okot, Tessa (Johnson), and Raven (Johnson) averaged points in double figures this season. And to put things into perspective: Yes, Latson's production dipped, but as we saw with Florida State, she's more than capable of putting up a 30-piece.

Both teams are top-ten defensively, and I do think the difference maker will be the offense.  South Carolina has nearly scored 100 points in each round of the NCAA tournament and held Oklahoma to 39% from the field and 30% from three-point range. They aren't called the "Seatbelt Gang" for nothing. Perhaps the most crucial player on defense tonight will be Joyce Edwards.

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Final NCAA Women's Elite 8 Betting Pick & Prediction: South Carolina -14.5 (-115 DraftKings)

I'm confident in South Carolina tonight as they've beaten tournament opponents by an average of 45 points. I especially like Okot's matchup tonight and the fact that she's coming off a 12-rebound performance.

• I'm taking South Carolina to cover the 14.5-point spread tonight. I don't see how TCU keeps up offensively and from the perimeter. TCU will need more outside of Miles and Suarez, and South Carolina ranks third with a +63.3 NET rating. 12-3 against top-25 teams, the Gamecocks defeated LSU (twice), Vanderbilt by 29 points, Duke by 17 points, and Tennessee by 43 points. What TCU has done is impressive, and it's earned its way here. However, I don't think the supporting cast outside of Suarez and Miles can keep up with Staley's Gamecocks.