NCAA Women's Elite 8 Odds, Predictions & Best Bets: Michigan vs. Texas (March 30)

The NCAA women's tournament has brought plenty of excitement, and the Elite 8 will continue today. In this article, I will highlight my best bets, betting odds, and predictions for the Michigan vs. Texas matchup.

(Photo by Jacob Kupferman/Getty Images)

Led by head coach Vic Schaefer, Texas has been one of the best teams in the nation. Earning the No. 1 seed in the Fort Worth Region 3, they are heading back to the Elite 8 for the second consecutive year. Reaching the Final Four last season, this team has big goals ahead.

Michigan is back in the Elite 8 for the first time since 2022 and the Naz Hillmon era. Led by head coach Kim Barnes Arico, this team posted a program-best 28 wins this season, which was good for second in the Big Ten. Now they find themselves in a position to head to the Final Four.

On Monday, No. 2 Michigan Wolverines (28-6) will face No. 1 Texas Longhorns (34-3) in the Elite 8. Texas cruised by Missouri State, Oregon, and Kentucky in the first three rounds, while Michigan handled High Point, NC State, and Louisville.

NCAA Women's Elite 8 Matchup: Michigan vs. Texas

Similar to previous articles, oddsmakers have the UConn Huskies (-250), UCLA Bruins (+550), and Texas (+850) as the favorites to win the NCAA Title. Next up are South Carolina (+850), Michigan (+12500), and TCU (+20000), which are considered long shots.

Last year, Michigan was routed by Notre Dame in the Round of 32, and Texas was demolished by Dawn Staley and the Gamecocks, 74-57. Considered one of the most explosive teams in the country, this is a very talented, young team. In fact, the Wolverines have just three seniors on the roster.

Having won the SEC Tournament over South Carolina, this Texas team is a veteran squad led by seniors Rori Harmon and Kyla Oldacre. This team has long been headlined by Harmon and Junior Madison Booker, and remains one of the toughest in the tournament.

There's no rivalry between these teams, as they have faced each other just once in history. In the lone game, Texas defeated Michigan 69-52 in November 2018.

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NCAA Women's Elite 8 Betting Odds Are Current As Of March 30 at 11 A.M. ET

If you're betting on the Women's Elite 8 between Michigan and Texas, welcome!

Tipoff is set for 7 p.m. ET, and this matchup will air on ESPN. Located at Dickies Arena in Fort Worth, Texas, the Longhorns are tabbed as 10.5-point spread favorites. The total is set for over or under 138.5 points.

Here are my best bets, picks, and predictions for Monday's Elite 8 matchup featuring Michigan and Texas. But first, let's look at the betting odds and starting five for March 30.

NCAA Women's Elite 8 Best Bet: Michigan vs. Texas Betting Odds for March 30 (FanDuel)

• Moneyline: Michigan +420 | Texas: -600
• Spread: Michigan +10.5 (-114) | Texas: -10.5 (-106)
• Total: Over 138.5 (-112) | Under 138.5 (-108)

Michigan vs. Texas Starting Five

MICHIGAN

Syla Swords | Olivia Olson | Mila Holloway | Brook Quarles Daniels | Ashley Sofilkanich

TEXAS

Rori Harmon | Jordan Lee | Madison Booker | Justice Carlton | Breya Cunningham

NCAA Women's Elite 8 Prediction for Monday, March 30: Michigan vs. Texas

Michigan vs. Texas Best Bets

• Michigan +10.5 (-114 FanDuel)
• Texas first half OVER 35.5 points (-120 DraftKings)

Michigan +10.5

I'm taking Michigan to cover the 10.5-point spread as an underdog today. The line moved from 9.5 to 10 as I was making my bets, so I love this line even more.

Unlike other articles I've written, this spread is much smaller, and I'm expecting a competitive game today. Yes, Texas has been playing out of its mind. Having ranked fourth in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency (125.58), this is a potent offensive team. When I say potent, they average 85.2 points per game.

I understand that Texas has the size advantage with Kyla Oldacre, who's 6'6", and Breya Cunningham, who's 6'4". That said, this is one of the most complete teams in the tournament, ranking second behind UConn in adjusted defensive rating (63.54).

Michigan is the only No. 2 seed left standing, and they have been one of the fiercest teams all year. In order to beat Texas, Michigan will need stars Olivia Olson (19.2 points, 6.1 rebounds) and Syla Swords (14.8 points) to step up big-time.

Trust Michigan's Young Core to Cover the Spread

Neither team is a heavy 3-point shooter, but the Wolverines do have the advantage when it comes to 3-point rate (29.4%). And when it comes to Swords, it's hard to stop her when she's on a roll. We saw her put up 26 points against NC State and 16 against Louisville. And while all eyes are on Swords, Olson has been the glue to this team. She erupted for 27 points against NC State and is averaging 19.3 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 1.7 steals in the tournament.

When we break it down, Michigan had a tough schedule and even went 7-5 against top-25 teams. Michigan was the only team to challenge UConn in the regular season. While Michigan didn't shoot the rock well (35% FG, 38% 3PT), they held the Huskies to 38% shooting from the floor. Swords and Olson combined for 47 points, which is what they will need to do tonight to cover the spread.

I also want to point out that Michigan lost to UCLA by three points (69-66) and to Vanderbilt by three points (72-69). Sure, they may not have the size, but this is a team that boasts a 53.5% effective field goal percentage and a 58.45 NET rating.

This should be a close game. Sure, Texas runs deep, and Jordan Lee has taken a gigantic leap in her sophomore season. Michigan's defense isn't as potent as Texas's, but they allow opponents to shoot just 40.1% from the field. It's going to be difficult to defend Booker's mid-range shot, but if any team can hang, it's Michigan.

Final NCAA Women's Elite 8 Betting Pick & Prediction: Michigan +10.5 (-114 FanDuel)

Swords' ability to score in spurts and hit the three is crucial, along with Olson's ability to score at a high-level. The X-factors will undoubtedly be assist leader Mila Holloway and Brook Daniels on defense. I love the versatility Michigan has, and Swords is a great shot creator. Defeating NC State and Louisville by double figures, the Wolverines had their best from the top seven. This is a team that loves to dish out the ball, tallying 22 assists alone against the Wolfpack.

• Tonight, I'm taking Michigan to cover the spread. Texas has been absolutely dominant, covering -14.5, -27.5, and -44.5-point spreads against Kentucky, Oregon, and Missouri State. I strongly feel Michigan should be here and has been overlooked at times. In the tournament, the Wolverines covered the -4.5 and -13.5-point spreads against Louisville and NC State. I do think Texas wins, but both teams boast top-ten offenses. 

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Texas First Half OVER 35.5 Points

As mentioned previously, Texas's offense is firing on all cylinders, and this matchup features two powerful offenses. We are talking about a Texas team that ranks fourth in adjusted offensive rating (126.5). Averaging 85.2 points per game, they had this level of efficiency with the third-toughest schedule in the nation. 15-3 against Top-25 teams, Texas boasts an efficient field goal percentage of 53.5%. While its 3-point rate is only 14.7%, 68.2% of its shots come from two-pointers.

Ranking third in field goals made and attempted, Texas is going to put up decent shot volume. We saw them put up 100 and 76 points against Oregon and Kentucky. Scoring 45 first-half points against the Ducks, they put up 48 in the first half against the Wildcats.

Overall, this is a squad that put up 42 to 43 first-half points this season, and one that thrives in scoring quickly early on. 14-3 in Quad 1 wins, Texas had one of their best first halves against Kentucky.

Pouring in 29 first-half points, this team was fluid thanks to Rori Harmon's nine points, five assists, and six steals in the first two quarters. Most impressively, the fast-break points led to quick buckets, something that I'm confident will happen tonight.

Final NCAA Women's Elite 8 Betting Pick & Prediction: Texas First Half OVER 35.5 Points (-120 DraftKings).

When you look at the stats, Texas put up 50 first-half points against an elite UCLA Defense back in November. In the SEC Tournament against South Carolina, they scored 27 first-quarter and 45 first-half points.

• I'm taking Texas to score over 35.5 first-half points. Michigan's defense is solid, but the Longhorns love to force turnovers. They should match Michigan, which loves to push the pace (73.4), and this team is averaging 45.3 first-half points in the NCAA Tournament. Michigan has yet to face an offense this potent in March Madness, and Louisville scored 27 first-half points last round. No one's been hotter than Texas, and I don't expect its offense to go stagnant any time soon.