2026 NCAA Women's National Championship Game Best Bets: South Carolina vs. UCLA Odds & Predictions (April 5)

It's the moment we've all been waiting for: the 2026 NCAA women's national championship game is today. Easter Sunday features a highly anticipated matchup between the South Carolina Gamecocks and the UCLA Bruins.

(Photo by Jacob Kupferman/Getty Images)

The Final Four was as exciting, action-packed, and drama-filled as it could get. South Carolina upset the undefeated UConn Huskies, resulting in a quarrel between head coaches Dawn Staley and Geno Auriemma. Up until that matchup, UConn was considered the heavy favorite on FanDuel (-155) to win the national championship.

While drama didn't headline the second game, UCLA's defense did. Led by head coach Cori Close, the Bruins took down No. 1 Texas, 51-44.

Heading into the Final Four, Texas held the second-best odds (+410) to win the national championship. Followed were UCLA (+600) and South Carolina (+650) as long shots.

Sunday, No. 1 South Carolina (36-3, 15-1 SEC) will face No. 1 UCLA (36-1, 18-0 Big Ten) for the sixth time in history. The Gamecocks lead the series 4-1, and both teams last met in November 2024. While that was nearly two years ago, both teams had similar players who are on the roster Sunday. That includes UCLA's Lauren Betts, Kiki Rice, and Angela Dugalić, and South Carolina's Raven Johnson, Joyce Edwards, and Tessa Johnson.

2026 NCAA Women's Championship: South Carolina vs. UCLA

While this is the first time South Carolina and UCLA will meet in the national championship game, they are somewhat familiar with each other's game.

The Gamecocks enter Sunday's matchup as a 3.5-point spread favorite and -178 on the moneyline. Staley is seeking her fourth championship and third over the last five years. Since Close took over at the helm, she and the Bruins are seeking their first title in program history. That said, there are high stakes ahead and history on the line.

South Carolina is back in the Final Four for the sixth time since 2017. They took care of Southern, USC, and Oklahoma in the first three rounds of March Madness. Defeating Olivia Miles and TCU 78-52 in the Elite 8, they shut down Sarah Strong and UConn, 62-48 in the Final Four.

Since joining the NCAA in 1982, UCLA has earned its first NCAA March Madness Championship appearance by defeating Cal Baptist, Oklahoma State, and Minnesota in the first few rounds. They later defeated Kara Lawson and Duke in the Elite 8, 70-58. Subsequently, UCLA had its rematch with Texas, defeating the Longhorns 51-44 in the Final Four.

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NCAA Women's National Championship Betting Odds Are Current As of April 5 at 9 A.M. ET

If you're betting on the NCAA title game featuring South Carolina and UCLA, welcome!

Tipoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET, and the matchup will take place at Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix, Arizona. Broadcast on ESPN, the clash will feature two No. 1 seeds on the biggest stage.

As mentioned previously, South Carolina is the favorite, but not by much. In addition, the over/under total is set for 127.5 points.

Here are my best bets, predictions, and betting odds for South Carolina vs. UCLA on Sunday, April 5. I will include a mix of spread and total bets for the national championship game.

NCAA Women's National Championship Best Bets: South Carolina vs. UCLA Betting Odds for April 5 (FanDuel)

• Moneyline: South Carolina (-178) | UCLA (+144)
• Spread: South Carolina -3.5 (-115) | UCLA +3.5 (-105)
• Total: Over 127.5  (-108) | Under 127.5  (-112)

South Carolina vs. Bruins Starting Five

SOUTH CAROLINA

Raven Johnson | Ta'Niya Latson | Tessa Johnson | Joyce Edwards | Madina Okot

UCLA

Kiki Rice | Charlisse Leger-Walker | Gabriela Jaquez | Gianna Kneepkens | Lauren Betts

NCAA Women's National Championship Prediction for Sunday, April 5: South Carolina vs. UCLA

South Carolina Gamecocks vs. UCLA Bruins Best Bets

• UCLA +3.5 (-105)—+120 (25% Boost FanDuel)
• UNDER 127.5 Total Points (-110 DraftKings)

UCLA +3.5

Today, I'm taking the UCLA Bruins to cover the 3.5-point spread. The Bruins are underdogs, and not by much. 72% of the public placed bets on South Carolina on DraftKings. Let me tell you why I'm fading that.

• Sunday's matchup will feature the best of the best. And while I'm not necessarily fading Dawn Staley and the Gamecocks, I think this will be a close game.

South Carolina has proven it deserves to be here. 36-3 on the season, they cruised through the first three rounds, but upset arguably the best team in the nation (UConn). Dominating on both ends of the floor, the offense wasn't stellar, but its ability to attack UConn's weaknesses and get to the free-throw line mattered most.

UCLA not only routed a tough Duke defense, but they scored 70 points against them. That included Lauren Betts' 23 points and 10 rebounds. Having faced Texas for the second time this season, the Bruins defeated the Longhorns 51-44 in a low-scoring affair.

I'll get to this in my next pick, but I'm not so convinced that UCLA will light it up on offense, and they certainly struggled against an elite Texas defense. However, UCLA had a much more balanced attack than in the Duke game. While Betts led the way with 16 points and 11 rebounds, Kneepkens, Jaquez, and Rice scored points in double figures.

When I talk about the Bruins, they were the No. 1 offensive team in the nation (124.6) and boasted the fourth-best NET rating (38.8) aside from UConn, Texas, and South Carolina.

• They ranked second in the country in effective field goal percentage (56.7%) and true shooting percentage (59.4%).

Why UCLA Can Cover the Spread Against South Carolina

The outcome of this game will come down to defense and production on the glass. We saw South Carolina force 10 turnovers and tallied nine assists alone.

• In reality, what made the difference was its ability to outrebound Connecticut 47-32, especially on the offensive glass (14-9).

This is where I think UCLA can hang. Betts is 6-foot-7, and South Carolina's Madina Okot is 6-foot-6. Okot can stretch the floor, which may change things since Betts is strictly an inside big. Not only did UCLA lead the nation in total rebound percentage (60.5%), but it also ranked second in offensive rebound percentage (43.8%).

I not only speak for Betts, but also for UCLA, which has significantly more size than South Carolina.

Just two players are listed under six feet, and Angela Dugalić (6-foot-4) can bring size off the bench. Not to mention, Jaquez and Kneepkens are bigger guards at six feet. They allowed Texas to tally 17 offensive boards, which can't happen if they want to cover.

Either of these teams has a great amount of depth. I'm expecting Staley to run mainly a seven-player rotation, with Agot Makeer and Maddy McDaniel coming off the bench. I don't even expect Close to run a deep rotation, and may have Dugalić play heavy minutes from the bench. In this case, we know what we are getting.

Neither of these teams is a 3-point-heavy squad. The Bruins rank No. 231 in percentage points from three (25.5%), while the Gamecocks rank No. 322 (21%).

• That said, both have shot fairly efficiently when shooting from deep (UCLA 36.7%, South Carolina 37.6%).

Both teams average just over 12 turnovers per game, and it's going to also come down to who can protect the ball most.

It All Comes Down to Defense

The Bruins have the size, defense, and experience to keep this game close. The Bruins have several seniors, including Betts, Rice, Jaquez, and Kneepkens, who are expected to declare for the 2026 WNBA Draft. As simple as it sounds, it all comes down to making shots.

We've seen teams such as UConn and Texas flop in the biggest moments, and UCLA is shooting 41% from the field. The Bruins shot over 50% in four games, although 3-point shooting has been a concern (28.8%).

Both teams have versatile ways to score, and for UCLA, it comes down to stopping the core five in Edwards, Latson, Okot, Tessa Johnson, and Raven Johnson. Not to mention, Makeer has been a sniper off the bench. I'm not expecting either team to light it up from beyond the arc, and players such as Raven Johnson and Latson can get downhill quickly.

• UCLA ranked no. 31 in fouls per game (13.9). It's essential they don't make the same mistake as the Huskies, who allowed them to get to the charity stripe 22 times.

South Carolina is a great team, a scary team, in fact. But let's not dismiss the fact that 22 of its 62 points (35%) came from the free-throw line. While they displayed a defensive masterclass against UConn, the Gamecocks shot just 19-of-61 (31%) from the field and 6-of-21 (29%) from three.

While not as efficient this season as UConn defensively, the Bruins rank No.12 in defensive rating (81.7). This season, opponents shot just 36% from the field and 27.3% from the three against UCLA.

• Furthermore, they held opposing teams to an 11.4% free-throw rate and led the nation in opponent rebounds per game (27.6) and opponent defensive rebounds per game (17.8).

Final NCAA Women's National Championship Betting Pick & Prediction: UCLA Bruins +3.5 (-105 FanDuel)

As dominant as South Carolina's been defensively, UCLA has held each of its opponents in the NCAA Tournament to under 70 points. Limiting Duke to 58 points and Texas to 44, both those teams shot a combined 35% from the field and 15% from three. Although Madison Booker missed several wide-open shots, the Bruins held the Texas star to 3-of-23 from the field.

• I'm taking the UCLA Bruins to cover the 3.5-point spread. This team has all the assets to keep up on both sides of the ball, including length and size. The question is whether UCLA can keep up with the pace, but as I mentioned previously, it will all come down to defense. UCLA has been fair against the spread, boasting a 3-2 ATS record. The Bruins covered +3.5 against Texas, expect them to do the same on the biggest stage. Also expect Lauren Betts to get more touches, who's averaging 22.4 points, 9.0 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 1.0 steals, and 3.0 blocks in the NCAA Tournament. 

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Under 127.5 Points

My second-best bet for Sunday, I placed one unit on the South Carolina vs. UCLA final matchup to total under 127.5 points.

I made several valid points in my previous pick, but defense wins championships, right? That's been the name of the game through the NCAA women's tournament.

Aforementioned, South Carolina is playing some of the best defense I've seen. It's truly impressive that they not only beat UConn but also limited the Huskies to 48 points.

• Under Geno Auriemma, it was the lowest point total of the season, and UConn shot just  31% from the field and 29% from three.

At 5-foot-9, Raven Johnson took on the assignment of defending Sarah Strong, who's 6-foot-2. All while committing just eight fouls. In addition, the defense left UConn frozen, and sharpshooter Azzi Fudd shot just 3-of-15 from the field and 2-of-9 from three for eight points.

• If you really want to put things into perspective, Strong, named National Player of the Year, not only ripped her jersey, but was held to 12 points.

Trust Both Defenses

South Carolina completely disrupted UConn's actions, cuts, and more. And throughout the NCAA Tournament, the Gamecocks held each of their opponents to 68 points or fewer. Limiting TCU to 52 points and UConn to 48, no opponent shot over 35% from the field against South Carolina.

• In fact, Southern, USC, Oklahoma, TCU, and UConn shot a combined 31.6% from the field and 31.8% from three.

In five March Madness matchups, the Gamecocks forced 82 turnovers, 27 coming from USC alone. Raven Johnson alone has tallied seven steals and two blocks. Plus, let's not forget about Joyce Edwards, who's established herself as one of the best two-way players in the game. In the tournament, she's recorded 11 steals and six blocks.

Overall, the Gamecocks allowed just 57.3 points per game and opponents to shoot 34.6% from the field. They were one of the best perimeter defensive teams, and I don't expect that to let up on Sunday.

Similarly, the Bruins have played lockdown defense in March. Yes, they did come back in a few games, but held Duke and Texas to a combined 102 points. While Duke's strongest point wasn't on offense, they shot just 39% from the field and 8% from three against UCLA.

• Mind you, Texas was clearly the best team in the tournament leading up to the Final Four, and they shot just 31% from the floor and 22% from three.

Final NCAA Women's National Championship Betting Pick & Prediction: South Carolina vs. UCLA UNDER 127.5 Points (-110 DraftKings)

We can't forget the fact that the Bruins allowed just 56.5 points this season, with opponents shooting 36% from the field and 27.8% from three. With Betts, Rice, and Dugalić, don't underestimate the defensive power of this team. I don't think it's been talked about nearly enough.

• I'm taking the under points here for the national championship game. Both defenses have been stellar, but I also recognize the offenses have struggled against top-tier defenses. South Carolina has the size and length to stop Betts. Either way, expect a low-scoring affair. South Carolina's matchup with UConn tallied 110 points, while UCLA vs. Texas tallied under 100 (95). Both teams have a combined 5-5 O/U record and 0-4 since the Elite 8.