NCAA Women's Elite 8 Best Bet: Notre Dame vs. UConn Odds & Prediction (March 29)

It's Sunday, and the NCAA Women's Elite 8 is here!  The NCAA Tournament is down to eight teams, and only one will be crowned the winner. In this article, I will focus on today's matchups between Notre Dame and UConn.

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Beginning at 1:00 p.m. ET, No. 6 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (25-10) will face No. 1 UConn Huskies (37-0). Both are in Fort Worth Region 1, and whoever wins will earn a trip to the Final Four.

UConn is the No. 1 overall seed, and is the only team, men's or women's, to remain undefeated.  Through three rounds, they took care of UTSA, Syracuse, and UNC. Considered one of the most prestigious programs in NCAA history, UConn is set to make another Elite 8.

Notre Dame is headed to its first Elite 8 since 2019 and the first since head coach Niele Ivey took over for Muffet McGraw in 2020. After defeating Fairfield and Ohio State in the first two rounds, the Fighting Irish won a thriller over Vanderbilt 67-64 in the Sweet 16.

UConn and Notre Dame Have a Long Standing Rivalry

The odds haven't changed, and oddsmakers view UConn as a large favorite to repeat as national champions (-290). The odds gap continues to grow with UCLA (+500) and South Carolina (+850) being the next teams favored. Notre Dame has the highest odds (+25000) and is considered a long shot to win the NCAA title.

This isn't an ordinary game; both these teams have a rich history. A rivalry that's been standing for decades. Auriemma and Ivey get a shot at competing for another high-stakes matchup. UConn is 39-16 against Notre Dame all-time, and we all remember Arike Ogunbowale's game-winning 3-pointer over Napheesa Collier and UConn in the Final Four (2018). Subsequently, the Fighting Irish defeated the Huskies in 2019, crushing their dreams of winning a title.

Most importantly, UConn defeated Notre Dame in back-to-back NCAA title games in 2014 and 2015. This game certainly means so much more than just a victory.

UConn heads into today's matchup as a 27.5-point spread favorite, and has been favored by 25+ points in each of their NCAA Tournament matchups.

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NCAA Women's Elite 8 Betting Odds Are Current As Of March 29 at 10 A.M ET

If you're betting on NCAA basketball, welcome! The matchup between Notre Dame and UConn will begin at 1 p.m. ET and will air on ESPN.

I've already discussed that UConn is a heavy favorite, so much so that the moneyline isn't available on FanDuel. The over/under total is set at 141.5 points.

Let's take a look at my best bet, betting odds, and prediction for Notre Dame vs. UConn on Sunday, March 29. I will include a mix of value bets and player prop picks.

NCAA Women's Elite 8 Best Bet: Notre Dame vs. UConn Betting Odds for March 29 (FanDuel)

• Moneyline: TBD
• Spread: Notre Dame +27.5 (-112) | UConn -27.5 (-108)
• Total: Over 141.5 (-108) | Under 141.5 (-112)

Notre Dame vs. UConn Starting Five

NOTRE DAME

Hannah Hidalgo | Cassandre Prosper | Vanessa de Jesus | Iyana Moore | Malaya Cowles

 UCONN

KK Arnold | Azzi Fudd | Ashlynn Shade | Serah Williams | Sarah Strong

NCAA Women's Elite 8 Prediction for Sunday, March 29:  Notre Dame vs. UConn

Notre Dame vs. UConn Best Bets

• Notre Dame +27.5 (-112 FanDuel)
• Sarah Strong OVER 27.5 Points + Rebounds (-104 FanDuel)

Notre Dame +27.5

Today, I bet on Notre Dame to cover the 27.5-point spread as an underdog. So far, I've bet on UConn to cover large spreads, and it hasn't exactly panned out. While it's possible, 27.5 points is a ton for an Elite 8 matchup.

I know UConn is the top dog and has the best starting five in the nation. Any team that has a duo of Azzi Fudd and Sarah Strong is scary in itself. You add the depth that UConn has, and it makes them almost unbeatable.

That said, they will be a tough matchup for the Fighting Irish. UConn has the No. 1 defensive efficiency in the nation (69.9) and the second-best offense (123.2) behind UCLA. Not to mention that this is a team that puts up 88.4 points per game and ranks second in the country in 3-point percentage (38.8%)

Sure, UConn cruised past UTSA 90-52 and Syracuse 98-45 in the second round. What I'm most concerned about is its 63-42 Sweet 16 victory over North Carolina. Notably, Auriemma sounded off on the podium, critiquing practice times, baskets, and how much basketballs are inflated. Is that the reason why UConn scored just 63 points and was held to a season-low first-half points?

UConn shot just 26-of-65 from the field (40%) and 4-of-20 (20%) from three. That's hardly consistent with a team that shoots nearly 40 percent from beyond the arc. And while Azzi Fudd finished with just 10 points, Sarah Strong led the way with 21 points, 10 rebounds, and five steals.

UConn won by 21 points. I'm not saying that they are "bad." They had 18 steals and forced 24 turnovers. But they do play a rival in Notre Dame, a team that's hot.

Against Vanderbilt, Notre Dame capitalized on their shooting woes, and Hannah Hidalgo recorded an NCAA women's tournament record with 10 steals. Hidalgo has arguably been one of the best players in the tournament and recorded a triple-double (31 points, 11 rebounds, 10 steals) against Vandy. She joins Caitlin Clark as the only player to record a 30-point triple-double!

UConn Expected to Win. Here's Why Notre Dame Can Cover The Spread

I don't have Notre Dame winning this game, but if they play as they have lately, this can be kept closer than 27.5 points. Sure, UConn dominated Notre Dame 85-47 earlier in the season. In that matchup, the Huskies held the Fighting Irish to 19-of-52 (37%) from the field, and 1-of-16 (6%) from beyond the arc. Hidalgo notably struggled, scoring 16 points on 5-of-15 shooting.

So yes, I can see why the books have UConn as heavy favorites for this one. And yes, Notre Dame may not get as many points off turnovers. The Huskies turn the ball over just 12.6 times per game, and force nearly 25 turnovers per game.

I don't know UConn's game plan for Hidalgo, but they are finding ways to win. I'm not saying Vanderbilt is remotely in the same category as UConn, but they have options in Prosper, and KK Bransford will be the X-factor, along with de Jesus.

Notre Dame Thrives As the Underdog

Notre Dame is the biggest competition UConn's had in the tournament, and they didn't even beat UNC by more than 25. So here I'm fading UConn.

I've bet on Notre Dame as spread underdogs practically every single game. This is a large spread for them, but they've covered in five straight games. We've seen them cover the +6.5 against Vanderbilt, +4.5 against Ohio State, and +4.5 against Duke back on March 7. This team THRIVES on covering spreads as underdogs. Yes, UConn covered 37.5-point and 30.5-point spreads against Syracuse and Villanova.

• However, they failed to cover the 29.5-point spread against UNC.

I do think this spread is a bit inflated because of Notre Dame's defense (ranked 190th). However, we saw them turn on the jets and shut down the top 3-point shooting program in Fairfield. Limiting Vanderbilt to 64 points, you can say Mikayla Blakes had a bad shooting day. That said, Notre Dame held them to 29% from beyond the arc.

Facing UConn's defense won't be easy. But, I highly doubt that Notre Dame will have a repeating 1-of-16 shooting performance this late in the tournament. Notre Dame doesn't hit nearly as many three-pointers (6.4 3PM), but they do shoot 34.8% from deep.

Final NCAA Women's Elite 8 Betting Pick & Prediction: Notre Dame +27.5 (-112 FanDuel)

I do think UConn has the better coaching, players, and depth for this one, and I wouldn't be surprised if they won by 20 points or more. But nearly 28 points? We are talking about a Notre Dame team that may not be as elite, but went 5-5 against top-25 schools and averaged 77.8 points per game. Yes, the defense is inconsistent at times, but they lost to Duke by just two points in the ACC Tournament Semifinal.

• For these reasons, I'm taking the points with Notre Dame. They rank No. 37 in NET rating (17.9), and boast a 51.6% effective field goal percentage. I can't fade this team (spread-wise) as long as Hidalgo has been as disruptive and dominant as she has. It's hard to stop Hidalgo, who's averaging 23.6 points, 11 rebounds, five assists, and 13 steals in the tournament.

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Player Prop Bet: Sarah Strong (UConn) OVER 27.5 Points + Rebounds (-104 FanDuel)

My second-best bet for today, I placed one unit on UConn's Sarah Strong to record over 27.5 points and rebounds.

A NOY candidate, Strong is arguably the best player in the country who's been consistent. Throughout her second NCAA Tournament, she's averaging 19 points and 11 rebounds per game. Most recently, she put up 21 points and 10 assists against North Carolina.

A 6'2" Strong can do everything. She can post-up, hit the mid-range, and stretch the floor to the 3-point line. She's a physical force that is truly hard to stop in any matchup. In 36 regular-season games, she averaged 18.5 points, 7.6 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 3.4 steals, and 1.6 blocks.

It's hard to find a WNBA comparison for Strong because she's in a league of her own. When everyone else struggled against UNC, Strong led the way with 17 shot attempts. Against Notre Dame in January, she erupted for 18 points, 11 rebounds, three steals, and three blocks.

Final NCAA Women's Elite 8 Betting Pick & Prediction: Sarah Strong OVER 27.5 Points + Rebounds (-104 FanDuel)

UConn averaged 37.8 rebounds per game, and we know it has size and depth over Notre Dame (34.4 RPG). I can't rely on guard player props for UConn simply because Hidalgo has been such a pest on defense. This offense starts and ends with Strong, and to make my case, she erupted for 16 points and 20 rebounds against Michigan.

She'll get the points, but there's a reason why UConn led the Big East with over 24 defensive rebounds per game.

• Trust the over for Sarah Strong points and rebounds today. There's no player on Notre Dame that can stop her to the max. Plus, this is a great value prop at nearly plus money.