2026 Women's NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Best Bets: UConn, UCLA, LSU Picks & Odds (Mar. 27)

March Madness is in full swing, and the Women's NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 will begin today. Friday features highly anticipated, high-profile matchups, including UConn, UCLA, LSU, and more! Let's take a look at the matchups, betting odds, and best bets for today.

(Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images)

16 teams. One champion. We are down to the final 16 teams, eight of which will play today.

Similar to prior, UConn (-260) is the favorite to repeat as national champions on FanDuel. Followed are UCLA (+550), South Carolina (+850), Texas (+850), LSU (+2500), and Michigan (+10000). As you can see, there is a significant gap in odds between UConn and the rest. Oddsmakers are all in on Connecticut, but can another team defeat Geno Auriemma and company?

Set to tip off at 2:30 p.m. ET, No. 6 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (24-10) will face off against No. 2 Vanderbilt Commodores (29-4). Vanderbilt is back in the Sweet 16 since 2009, and Notre Dame returns for the fifth-straight season. This should be a matchup for the history books–one that headlines Notre Dame's two-way guard Hannah Hidalgo vs. Vanderbilt's star, Mikayla Blakes. Set to take place in Fort Worth Region 1 in Texas, Vanderbilt is a 6.5-point spread favorite and -260 on the moneyline.

Next up, No. 4 North Carolina Tar Heels (28-7) will face No. 1 UConn Huskies (36-0). Considered the most accomplished program in women's college basketball history, Connecticut heads to its 32-straight Sweet 16. Under head coach Courtney Banghart, the Tar Heels are headed to their second consecutive Sweet 16. UNC has +40000 odds on FanDuel to win the national championship, and will have its biggest test today. That said, UConn is a 29.5-point spread favorite. Starting at 5 p.m. ET, both teams are featured in Fort Worth Region 1 in Texas.

Women's NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Matchups

Beginning at 7:30 p.m. ET, No. 4 Minnesota Gophers (24-8) faces No. 1 UCLA Bruins (33-1). The Bruins will head to the Sweet 16 for the fourth consecutive year under head coach Cori Close, and are considered one of the favorites to win the NCAA title. Conversely, the Gophers have surprised many, as this is their first March Madness appearance since the 2017-2018 season. We all remember the Lindsay Whalen days, when Minnesota made its first Final Four appearance in 2004. 18.5-point spread underdogs, a Minnesota upset would be one for the history books. In a Sacramento 2 Region matchup, this game will take place at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California. The same goes for the matchup below.

Lastly, No. 3 Duke Blue Devils (26-8) will square off against No. 2 LSU Tigers (29-5). There's no better matchup than this, as head coaches Kara Lawson (Duke) and Kim Mulkey (LSU) will face off. Two well-respected coaches in the NCAA Tournament, LSU won an NCAA title under Mulkey during the Angel Reese era, and heads to a fourth-consecutive Sweet 16. Now in just her sixth season, Lawson continues to formulate and rebuild Duke women's basketball. The Blue Devils will head to their third-straight Sweet 16. This late-night matchup will tip off at 10 p.m. ET in the Sacramento 2 Region, and LSU is an 8.5-point spread favorite.

If you're betting on NCAA women's basketball, all games will air on ESPN.

Let's take a look at my best bets, player prop picks, betting odds, and predictions for the NCAA women's Sweet 16 matchups on Friday, Mar. 27.

Women's NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Betting Odds for Friday, Mar. 27 (FanDuel)

Women's NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Best Bets & Predictions for Mar. 27

• LSU Tigers -8.5 vs. Duke Blue Devils
• Notre Dame Fighting Irish +6.5 vs. Vanderbilt Commodores/ Mikayla Blakes OVER 26.5 Points
• Minnesota Gophers +18.5 vs. UCLA Bruins
• UConn Huskies -29.5  vs. North Carolina Tar Heels

No. 6 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Vanderbilt

• Notre Dame +6.5 (-102 FanDuel)
• Mikayla Blakes OVER 26.5 Points (-122 FanDuel)

My first bet for today includes Notre Dame to cover the 6.5-point spread against Vanderbilt. I also have Vanderbilt star Mikayla Blakes to score over 26.5 points today.

A matchup featuring the Fighting Irish (ACC) vs. the Commodores (SEC), this is one of the most intriguing games of the day. And there's no denying what head coach Shae Ralph has done with this program. With just four losses on the season, Vanderbilt's success has been built on Blakes' success, along with its offense.

Blakes broke the Division I sophomore scoring record with 891 points, and she also led the nation with 27 points per game. And while Blakes steers the ship, let's not forget about Aubrey Galvan (13.2 points, 5.8 assists, 2.7 steals) and Justine Pissott (11.4 points, 4.5 rebounds).

Why Hannah Hidalgo and Notre Dame Can Cover the Spread

At just 5-foot-6, Galvan is a freshman, but is one of the brightest two-way stars in the game. Overall, this is a Vanderbilt team that averaged 84.9 points this season and forced over 20 turnovers per game. With massive victories over Illinois and High Point, the Commodores are playing well. But here's why Notre Dame can keep up.

There's no question that Notre Dame has faced some growing pains following the departure(s) of Olivia Miles and Sonia Citron. However, the Fighting Irish are one of the hottest teams in the tournament, and are led by Hidalgo, who was third in the nation in scoring (25.8 points per game). A two-way sensation, not only did she lead the country in steals (5.8 SPG), but she's also recorded 16 through the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament.

I'm aware of the Commodores' defense against Illinois, which led to them missing 16 consecutive shots. However, Notre Dame first defeated an offensive powerhouse in Fairfield and upset Ohio State, 83-73.

Final Women's NCAA Tournament Best Bet: Notre Dame +6.5 (-102 FanDuel) + Mikayla Blakes OVER 26.5 Points (-122 FanDuel)

We've seen Vanderbilt's vulnerability on defense in the past, and we can't forget about how KK Bransford, Iyana Moore, and Vanessa de Jesus combined for 38 points against Ohio State. Although streaky at times this season, Notre Dame boasts a 51.7 effective field goal percentage and can shoot the rock from deep (35.6%).

Overall, these are two of the top offenses in the country, and Notre Dame ranks No. 34 in offensive rating (107.2). That said, they have a +17.9 NET rating and have one of the lowest turnover rates in the country (15%).

• I do believe it comes down to Hidalgo, but also X-factors in Bransford and Moore. Both can keep up defensively, but rank No. 43 in defensive rating. I think Vandy wins this, but I expect Notre Dame to cover the spread. Blakes scored 25 points against Illinois and 30 against High Point. Given that she's the focal point of the offense, Blakes is averaging 19 field goal attempts in the tournament. Take the OVER points for Mikayla Blakes. 

No. 4 Minnesota vs. No. 1 UCLA

• Minnesota +18.5 (-110 DraftKings)

My second-best bet for the day includes Minnesota to cover the 18.5-point spread against UCLA.

These two teams are familiar with each other, as both are in the Big Ten Conference. And yes, I know these two teams are far apart, and UCLA is in its own tier.

UCLA has been one of the most dominant teams in the nation, first defeating Cal Baptist 96-43 in the opening round and Oklahoma State 87-68 in the Round of 32. There's no doubt in my mind that the Bruins will win this outright, but I do think 18.5 points is a large margin for a Sweet 16 matchup.

Why Minnesota Can Cover The Spread

Minnesota has been one of the surprising teams of the tournament, defeating Green Bay 75-68 in the first round and Ole Miss 65-63. In case you missed it, Amaya Battle hit the game-winning shot with .01 seconds left to propel the Gophers into the first round. Upsetting Cotie McMahon and company, it wasn't a high-scoring affair. However, I was impressed that Minnesota shot 22-of-49 (45%) from the field, and 7-of-12 (58%) from beyond the arc.

While I'm concerned Minnesota's bench produced just seven points, Battle (14 points, 11 rebounds), Mara Braun (17 points), and Sophie Hart (10 points) stepped up offensively.

I'm aware Minnesota trailed most of that game, but this is a team that ranks No. 16 in offensive rating (111.4) and averages 74.6 points per game. This isn't a team that will put up a ton of 3-pointers, but it is efficient from beyond the arc (35.3 %).

We know the Bruins are led by Lauren Betts and boast one of the top offenses and defenses in the country. A complete powerhouse, I would be shocked if they lost today. However, Minnesota was 4-5 against top-25 teams and beat Iowa, Ohio State, and USC.

Final Women's NCAA Tournament Best Bet: Minnesota +18.5 (-110 DraftKings)

I know UCLA is in its own category, but this is a team that lost to Michigan by just ten points. Not to mention, the Gophers lost to the Bruins, 76-58, back in January. While Kiki Rice exploded for 25 points for UCLA, Battle and Braun combined for 31 points. Scoring just 58 points, Minnesota shot just 40% from the field and 24% from three. The difference in that game was UCLA's free-throw attempts, rebounds, and shooting percentages.

• I was impressed by how Minnesota forced 17 turnovers and took 17 threes. Although making just four of them, the Gophers took 17 more shots than the Bruins. Plus, UCLA scored just 78 points. While I don't expect Minnesota to win outright, they can cover the 18.5-point spread. If they shoot anywhere near as efficiently as they did against Ole Miss, the spread will be closer than you think. In the NCAA Tournament thus far, this team has shot 13-of-27 from 3-point range. 

No. 4 North Carolina vs. No. 1 UConn

• UConn Huskies -29.5  (-112 FanDuel)

My third-best bet for today, I'm taking the UConn Huskies to cover the 29.5-point spread against North Carolina.

I usually don't like betting on large spreads, especially in Sweet 16 matchups. However, the Huskies are the most dominant team, and that's not an exaggeration.

Backed by USBWA Player of the Year Sarah Strong and Azzi Fudd, there are very few holes in this roster. As mentioned in previous articles, this is the most complete starting five, and one could argue that Blanca Quiñonez, Allie Ziebell, and Kayleigh Heckel would be starters on any other team—that's how deep this roster is.

Ranking No. 2 in the country in offensive rating (123.2) and No. 1 in defensive rating (69.9), UConn is shredding defenses apart. Owning the best NET rating in the nation (53.3), they also lead with the top field goal efficiency (59.7%) and 3-point percentage (39.2%) of any team.

As expected, UConn dominated against UTSA 90-52, but also put on a show against Syracuse. Not only did they hold a 65-12 lead at halftime, but Azzi Fudd went on an absolute first-half tear. A menace on both ends of the floor, Fudd led the way with 34 points, three rebounds, five assists, and four steals. Shooting 8-of-11 from downtown, the Huskies shot 13-of-26 (50%) collectively from beyond the arc.

The UConn Huskies Are Elite—Can Anyone Beat Them?

We know the offense is stacked, as Strong contributed 18 points and nine rebounds. Ultimately, Auriemma emptied his bench, which produced 37 points alone. Destroying Syracuse on the glass 46-28, they forced 20 turnovers and had 15 steals alone as a team.

What I'm getting at is that UConn's defense is unforgiving, no matter the opponent. This is a team that allows just 50.3 opponent points per game, and they did not let up against Syracuse. Although the Orange performed better in the second half, they were held to just 45 points on 33% field goal shooting, and 1-of-18 from three (6%). If that doesn't tell you how dominant this team is, I don't know what does.

Clearly, UNC is a better team and finished 28-7 in a tough ACC conference. Led by a core four of Nyla Harris (11.5 points, 6.9 rebounds), Lanie Grant (11.1 points), Elina Aarnisalo (10.4 points, 5.1 rebounds), and Indya Nivar (10.3 points, 6.2 rebounds), this team ranks No. 20 in offensive efficiency (107.9). Yes, I'm aware they put up 82 points against Western Illinois and took 40 3-pointers.

We saw Aarnisalo and Grant dominate Maryland 74-66, and both players combined for 41 points. Sure, UNC can spread the floor, but how will its guard pan out against KK Arnold and Azzi Fudd?

Final Women's NCAA Tournament Best Bet: UConn -29.5 (-112 FanDuel)

I have respect for UNC and what head coach Courtney Banghart has done with the program. But I do believe this is where the run ends, as UNC lost to Notre Dame by 23 points earlier in the season. While they beat Duke, they did lose to UCLA by 18 points early on. The issue with UNC is that they are missing a heavy-hitting offensive weapon on a consistent basis.

• I'm laying the points with the UConn Huskies. They've won both NCAA Tournament matchups by 38 points or more, including a 53-point victory over Syracuse. This isn't just dominance—this is an elite team. UConn is riding a 52-game win streak and has won by 45 points or more over its last five matchups. In fact, no team has scored over 70 points against UConn all season. Better yet, their own true struggle came against a 72-69 victory over Michigan. Aside from that matchup, UConn beat top-25 teams by 13 points or more this season. There is a chance the stars don't play in the fourth quarter, but I'll take the UConn bench to produce.

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No. 3 Duke vs. No. 2 LSU

• LSU -8.5 (-118 DraftKings)

My last bet for today, I'm taking LSU to cover the 8.5-point spread as favorites against Duke.

I am very much looking forward to this matchup between two of the most popular teams in women's NCAA basketball.

Led by Flau'jae Johnson (14.3 points), MiLaysia Fulwiley (14.2 points), Mikaylah Williams (14 points), and ZaKiyah Johnson (10 points). This team is firing on all cylinders and has one of the most talented rosters on the offensive end. Johnson staying at LSU was brilliant, and grabbing Fulwiley in the transfer portal from South Carolina was a crucial move for Mulkey.

This is a team that averages 94.5 points per game and ranks No.3 in offensive efficiency (122.1). Along with star power and offensive weapons, this team loves to push the pace (77.4) and is versatile in how they score. For what it's worth, LSU may not take as many 3-pointers as other teams (15.4 3PA), but they boast the third-best 3-point percentage in the country (37.8%).

Trust LSU's Offense

Last time, we cashed out on LSU's point total, and they ripped Jacksonville 116-58 in the first round, and Texas Tech, 101-47 in the second round. We are really talking about a team that's won by at least 100 points in 15+ games this season. Plus, let's not forget they boast the third-best defensive efficiency in the nation (78.1).

Overall, I like what Kara Lawson has done in her short time with Duke. They had a rough start to the season, but finished 5-5 against top-25 teams. And while its defense can be inconsistent and stagnant (74.2 PPG), the defense has been the focal point again this year (58.7 opponent points per game).

Final Women's NCAA Tournament Best Bet: LSU -8.5 (-118 DraftKings)

Duke had impressive victories over Charleston and Baylor, 69-46. And I do want to point out that Duke held Baylor to 0-14 from three and just 16-53 (30%) from the field. The Blue Devils are led by sophomore sensation Toby Fournier (17.4 points, 8.0 rebounds), but they also got nice production from Delaney Thomas (17 points), Ashlon Jackson (12 points), and Arianna Roberson (10 points) in the last game.

• Duke is a team that will force turnovers, but creates a ton of them at times. Similar to last season, I don't trust the offense to keep up with LSU. Both teams met earlier in the season, with LSU coming out victorious 93-77. While it was unusual for Duke to allow 93 points, it was a double-digit loss for the Blue Devils. Given that LSU shot 65% from the field and 45% from the three, they not only outrebounded Duke, but forced 19 turnovers! In that matchup, six players scored points in double figures for LSU, while Duke struggled to keep up offensively. I'll lay the points with LSU—they are simply the more explosive and more experienced team.