Key Points
- SJ breaks down her best bets and predictions for the April 6 NCAAW Championship matchup featuring the UConn Huskies and South Carolina Gamecocks
The day bettors have been waiting for has finally arrived. It's NCAAW Championship game day!
(Photo by Sean Rayford/Getty Images)
A rematch of the 2022 NCAAW Title game, Dawn Staley and the
South Carolina Gamecocks
once again matchup with Geno Auriemma and the
UConn Huskies.
A classic No.1 (Gamecocks) vs. No. 2 seed (Huskies) matchup will be crowned with one victorious winner today! Who will it be? Will South Carolina go back-to-back as champions? Or will UConn capture their first championship since 2016?
We have yet to see a championship in the Paige Bueckers era, but the Huskies have been plagued by injuries. Now fully healthy, the Huskies will be given the chance to compete. Don't sleep on the Gamecocks and the dynasty Staley has built in Greenville, SC.
Of these two teams, who will be named the 2025 NCAAW March Madness champions?
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If you're looking to bet on the Championship matchup between UConn and South Carolina, welcome! Bettors, get your popcorn out, we have some excitement again! Similar to the Duke vs Houston game last night, I expect this to be a very competitive matchup.
With tip-off set for 3:00 p.m. ET, UConn and South Carolina will square away in Tampa, Florida. Available to watch on ABC, ESPN, and ESPN+, all eyes will be locked in on the championship game.
If you haven't watched women's basketball, I'm cordially inviting you into the space! With women's sports on the rise, what better way to support the game? I am up nearly 13 units on the week betting, let's stay hot!
Let's take a look at my best bets and predictions for the Sunday, April 6 NCAAW National Title game featuring UConn and South Carolina!
Are you in search of further NCAAW and sports betting promotions? We have compiled a
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NCAAW Championship Best Bets: UConn Huskies vs South Carolina Bet MGM Odds For April 6
MONEYLINE
- UCONN HUSKIES: -350
- SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS: +275
SPREAD
- UCONN HUSKIES: -7.5 (-110)
- SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS: +7.5 (-110)
OVER/UNDER (TOTAL)
- OVER: 133.5 (-110)
- UNDER: 135.5 (-110)
LAST FIVE HEAD-TO-HEAD MATCHUPS: UCONN VS SOUTH CAROLINA
- February 16, 2025: UConn 87, South Carolina 58 (Columbia, SC)
- February 11, 2024: South Carolina 83, UConn 65 (Columbia, SC)
- February 5, 2023: South Carolina 81, UConn 77 (Hartford, CT)
- April 3, 2022 (National Championship):
South Carolina 64, UConn 49 (Minnesota)
- November 22, 2021: South Carolina 73, UConn 57 (Bahamas)
NCAAW Championship : UConn vs South Carolina Predictions for Sunday, April 6
Best Totals Bet: UConn vs South Carolina
- Over 133.5 (-110 Bet MGM)
I've learned my lesson never to bet against Dawn Staley and and the South Carolina Gamecocks, so I've avoided the moneyline and spread entirely. Plus, are the books sleeping on the fact South Carolina is the major underdog by 7.5 points?
That said, I'm picking the UConn and South Carolina matchup to total over 133.5 points for -110 odds on Bet MGM.
Both these teams boast two of the top defenses in NCAA women's basketball. One, UConn ranked no.1 in scoring defense, limiting opponents to 52 points per game! Through the NCAA March Madness tournament, they've held each team to an average of 53.5 points. Aside from the South Dakota State Jackrabbits, USC, Oklahoma, and Arkansas State didn't shoot over 35.5 percent from the field.
UConn's defense has been elite, and we've seen this team master their defensive craft all season long. Led by Paige Bueckers, UConn has several two-way players in Azzi Fudd, Kaitlyn Chen, KK Arnold, and Sarah Strong just to name a few. With opponents shooting 28.8 percent from beyond the arc, we saw the Huskies innate ability to double team UCLA's Lauren Betts and quickly defend the perimeter.
Both Teams Are Elite On Both Sides Of The Ball
As for South Carolina, they've always prided themselves on defense. With opponents averaging 55 points against them, the Gamecocks have held each opponent to under 40 percent from the field, aside from Indiana. With a mean front court duo consisting of Chloe Kitts and Sania Feagin, they've been showing why this team prevailed to make it to the National Championship.
While South Carolina historically owns UConn over the last five games, we can't forget that UConn broke South Carolina's 71-game home win streak back in February. With a crushing 87-58 victory, the Huskies took care of business in Greenville, SC. For the folks saying this game does not matter, think again. I do believe the point spread margin won't be this large, and tonight will be competitive.
UConn Put Up Nearly 90 Points In Their Last Outing Vs South Carolina
South Carolina since went on a seven game win streak following that loss, and can vouch they are an improved team, which I can attest to. Overall, their offense hasn't incredibly wowed me, however, they are averaging 72.4 points in the NCAAW Tournament.
In their lone matchup, the total soared over 133.5 points with 145 total points. A complete offensive and defensive masterclass by UConn, the Huskies shot over 46 percent from behind the arc. Dominating on the boards, UConn loves to play with pace, and off turnovers. In fact, the Huskies scored 31 points off turnovers!
Will that continue to be the case today? We know UConn isn't likely to put up nearly 90 points on the Gamecocks, however it nearly happened this season. With South Carolina going 3-17 (17.6 %) from downtown, the x-factors are going to be Te-Hina Paopao, Bree Hall, and Tessa Johnson, especially in transition from deep.
We saw how well South Carolina performed against Texas, defeating the Longhorns 75-57 in the Final Four. Boasting one of the most elite defenses, we saw Texas hold TCU to an abysmal 47 points. I'm not saying South Carolina will torch UConn on the defensive end, however, I do believe this will be a higher scoring game.
Scoring 74.2 points in the Tournament, the Gamecocks are shooting 48.6 percent from the floor, and eclipsed the 50 percent mark against Texas. Although their 3-point shooting can be streaky, South Carolina shot an impeccable 63.6 percent from beyond the arc against Texas. Over five NCAAW tournament games, the Gamecocks are shooting 45.9 from deep.
Are the Books Sleeping On the UConn vs South Carolina Total?
The total should be close tonight, and South Carolina has only soared over 133.5 points in two of the five tournament games. Compare that to UConn, who have soared over 133.5 points in all five of their March Madness matchups.
We saw USC pour in 64 points against UConn, and that was without JuJu Watkins. As elite UConn has been on the defensive side, their offense is humming. Averaging 87.8 points per game through five outings. In that span, UConn is shooting 52 percent from the field. We saw the Huskies put up 85 points on the Bruins, there's no way they can repeat their performance against South Carolina, can they?
The Huskies have been respectable from the 3-point line, boasting a 53.8 percentage from downtown. Hot at the right time, this team has few holes on both sides of the ball. The question remains, with such depth,
Dawn Staley is the only coach to defeat Geno Auriemma in the Final Four. As much as I'd like to think this will be a defensive battle, both UConn and South Carolina have the bandwidth to make this a high scoring game.
No team has more weapons than South Carolina. If this has any chance to hit the over, the Gamecocks will have to have a repeat type performance such as the Final Four against Texas. For UConn, they will continue to work their inside-outside game.
Final NCAAW Championship Betting Prediction: UConn vs South Carolina Over 133.5 Points (-110 Bet MGM)
UConn scored 85 points against a UCLA team in which Paige Bueckers struggled from the field (7-17). If she revives her game, I can't imagine what this game will resemble.
On the biggest stage, both teams are fighting for history and a National Championship. Will South Carolina go back to back, or will the Huskies win their 12th title in the Paige Bueckes era?
- I'm going with UConn vs South Carolina over 133.5 points. Expecting a defensive battle, I do expect the total to soar over.
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