NCAAW Tournament Elite 8 Best Bets For Monday (March 31): UConn vs USC Betting Odds & Predictions

The Elite 8 continues, and bettors have a highly awaited matchup between the No.2 UConn Huskies (34-3) and No.1 USC Trojans (31-3).

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One of the most anticipated matchups of the NCAAW Tournament, this isn't an ordinary meeting. This is a rematch of last year's Elite 8, in which UConn upset No.1 USC, 80-73, as a No. 3 seed. Unfortunately, this time, JuJu Watkins is out for the matchup and the rest of the season with an ACL tear.

This matchup was supposed to feature two of the top generational stars in women's basketball, Watkins and Paige Bueckers. While that won't be the case, USC has a fairly competitive team aside from Watkins. Although, I will say that USBA National Player of the Year Juju Watkins is irreplaceable.

Heavy 14.5 point spread favorites,  the Huskies will make their 18th Elite 8 appearance in the last 19 years. The Huskies already hold the record for the most Final Four appearances (23), will they dance their way back? +730 underdogs on the moneyline, don't sleep on the USC Trojans. UConn's money line is incredibly juiced at -1300 odds on FanDuel!

With Watkins suffering an injury early in the second round against Mississippi State, the Trojans took care of business. After the last round, USC barely survived Kansas State. With all eyes on Senior Kiki Iriafen, multiple freshmen are expected to step up. With a 72-70 victory over the Huskies this season, can USC pull off the upset?

Odds Are Current As Of March 31 AT 9 A.M. ET

If you're looking to bet on the NCAAW March Madness Elite 8 matchup between USC and UConn, welcome! The matchup will tip off at 9 p.m. ET and be aired on ESPN.

Up 13 units betting this week, let's bounce back and add another unit to the win column. Here are my best bets and predictions for the March 31 Elite 8 matchup featuring the USC Trojans and USC Huskies.

Are you in search of further NCAAW and sports betting promotions? We have compiled a list of the best sports betting offers here. 

NCAAW Tournament Elite 8 Best Bets: USC Trojans vs UConn Huskies FanDuel Odds For March 31

MONEYLINE

• USC TROJANS: +730
• UCONN HUSKIES: -1300

SPREAD

• USC TROJANS: +14.5 (-108)
• UCONN HUSKIES: -14.5 (-112)

OVER/UNDER (TOTAL)

• OVER: 138.5 (-110)
• UNDER: 138.5 (-110)

LAST FOUR HEAD-TO-HEAD MATCHUPS: USC VS UCONN

• December 21, 2024: USC 72, UConn 70
• April 1, 2024: UConn 80, USC 73 (Elite 8)
• December 7, 2003: UConn 72, USC 69
• December 8, 2002: UConn 68, USC 44

NCAAW Tournament Elite 8 : USC vs UConn Predictions for Monday March 31

Best Totals Bet: USC vs UConn

• Over 138.5 Total Points (-110 FanDuel)

My best Elite 8 bet, I placed one unit on the USC vs UConn game to total over 138.5 points for -110 odds on FanDuel.

I completely avoided the moneyline, since UConn are the heavy favorites as -1300 odds. I also veered away from the spread, since 14.5 is quite a large margin for an Elite 8 matchup.

Unfortunately the absence of JuJu Watkins changes the landscape of the Trojans game entirely. USC's leader in minutes, points (23.9), assists (3.4), steals (2.2), and blocks (1.8) there's not one player that can replace Watkins level of talent on both sides of the ball.

While the statistics are just numbers, they will often be misleading without Watkins on the court. However, we saw how well USC performed against Mississippi State. Pulling out a gutsy 67-61 victory over Kansas State, it was more the defense that kept them in contention rather than offense.

Don't get it twisted, freshman Avery Howell and Kennedy Smith are more than capable of handling the pressure. Although pouring in a combined 37 points vs Kansas State, tonight will be a different story.

Why UConn Can Win The NCAA Championship With Elite Defense

What makes UConn so elite is their defense, point blank. Boasting the nations best defense, they limited opponents to 51.7 points per game through 37 regular season games. Yes, I'll say that again, 51.7!

Headlined by star Paige Bueckers, the Huskies are a scary team now that they've been nursed back to full health. Top to bottom, this team is elite defensively. In the back court alone, Bueckers, Azzi Fudd, and Katilyn Chen recorded 10 steals against Oklahoma. The secret weapon off the bench is KK Arnold, who's the heart and soul on the hustle and defensive side of things. Totaling two steals in the Sweet 16, Arnold is an underrated x-factor for UConn.

Limiting opponents to 29 percent from beyond the arc, the Huskies excel on the defensive rebounds specifically against opponents. And shall we talk about how UConn allows the third lowest opponent field goal percentage in the NCAA (34.7%)?

We are not in Kansas anymore, no pun intended! While the Kansas State Wildcat's defense is no slouch, UConn is in another tier.

Yet to allow an opponent soar past 60 points in the tournament, the Huskies held Arkansas State to an abysmal 34 points. From there, South Dakota State was limited to 57 points, and Oklahoma, 59 points. Mind you, Oklahoma had one of the most potent offenses in the NCAAW tournament. Fifth in points per game, the Sooners averaged 84.7 points per game. We are talking about an Oklahoma team that put up 26.4 3-pointers per game!

Why We Can't Sleep On The USC Trojans

The Sooners hopes and dreams were crushed, when the Huskies broke away in the third quarter. Getting Raegan Beers into early foul trouble was key, and UConn held Oklahoma to 32-73 (43.8 p%) from the field.

No matter how you slice it, USC will struggle offensively against UConn. I also highly doubt this Elite 8 matchup will resemble the 72-70 regular season outing (142 total points). We have to remember, yes the Trojans shot 49.2 percent from the floor, and 56.3 percent from deep that matchup. Watkins also led the team with 25 points.

With opponents averaging just 50 points against UConn in the NCAAW Tournament, teams have averaged 31.3 percent from the field, and 28 percent from deep. Sure the talent gap was massive in the first round, however, Arkansas State shot just 17.1 percent against the Huskies! Although soaring over 138.5 points against SD State and Oklahoma state, tonight will be a different vibe.

USC was undoubtedly one of the top offensive powerhouses with Watkins. Having averaged 81.1 points over the regular season, Watkins made up nearly 31 percent of the offense. This is a team that's prided themselves in attacking down hill and inside, rather than the 3-point line.

With the USC vs Kansas State matchup tallying 128 points, 67 points is hard to adjust for USC bettors. Kiki Iriafen largely struggled, shooting an abysmal 3-13 from the field. Tonight, Iriafen should have a better matchup against Sarah Strong, in which she poured in 16 points against the Huskies in December.

Final NCAAW Tournament Elite 8 Betting Prediction: USC vs UConn Under 138.5 Points (-110 FanDuel)

While Howell and Smith stepped up, there wasn't much offensive contribution beyond them and Rayah Marshall.

Overall, I'm taking the under points tonight. Even without Watkins, the books are sleeping on USC and their defense. Holding opponents to an average of 48.3 points, the Trojans limited Mississippi and Kansas State to under 65 points without Watkins.

• Holding opponents to 58.8 regular season points, we saw just how impactful Avery Howell and Kennedy Smith can be on the defensive end. I'm taking the Elite 8 matchup between USC and UConn to total under 138.5 points.