Key Points
- SJ gives her favorite bets and predictions for the April 4 Final Four matchup featuring the South Carolina Gamecocks and the Texas Longhorns
It's official, the NCAAW Final Four is finally here!
Photo Credit: Jineen Williams/Ballisllife
With four teams fighting for an NCAA Championship, Tampa will be rocking all weekend! The first game is an SEC rival matchup between the
No.1 South Carolina Gamecocks
(34-3) and the
No.1 Texas Longhorns (35.3).
It's an incredible story for the Longhorns, who will make their first Final Four appearance since 2003! The NCAA reigning champion South Carolina Gamecocks will return for their fifth consecutive Final Four.
Who will declare victory to proceed to the NCAAW Champion against either UCLA or UConn? South Carolina and Texas are familiar with each other's games, and tonight should be pure cinema.
Tonight, two dominant powerhouses in the NCAAW tournament will feature two of the most prominent coaches in all of women's college basketball—Gamecocks
Dawn Staley vs Longhorns
Vic Schaefer.
Vic Schaefer is forever indebted to women's basketball, bringing the Longhorns basketball back to relevance after 22 years. Having taken Mississippi to the Final Four twice, in 2017 and 2018, Dawn Staley will be the biggest challenge of them all.
Staley now has guided South Carolina to five straight Final Four appearances and is among the most elite coaches in NCAAW history. Can South Carolina become the first team since the UConn Huskies to repeat as back-to-back NCAAW March Madness Champions?
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If you're looking to bet on the NCAAW Final Four and women's basketball, welcome! With a betting record of 12-4 in March, let's start April off right!
With tip-off set for 7 p.m. ET, the Texas Longhorns and South Carolina matchup will air on ESPN, ESPN2, and ESPN+. Set to take place in Tampa, Florida, it's about to be a showdown between these two teams!
In their quest to obtain their first NCAAW Tournament Championship since 1985, it's an exciting time for Texas! On the flip side, South Carolina has the ability to make history under coach Staley.
Included in my article are are my best bets and predictions for the Friday, April 4 Final Four showdown between Texas and South Carolina.
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NCAAW Tournament Final Four Best Bets: Texas Longhorns v South Carolina Gamecocks Bet MGM Odds For April 4
MONEYLINE
- TEXAS LONGHORNS: +185
- SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS: -225
SPREAD
- TEXAS LONGHORNS: +5.5 (-115)
- SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS: -5.5 (-105)
OVER/UNDER (TOTAL)
- OVER: 124.5 (-110)
- UNDER: 124.5 (-110)
All-TIME HEAD-TO-HEAD MATCHUPS: TEXAS VS SOUTH CAROLINA
- March 9, 2025
(SEC Championship): South Carolina 64, Texas 45 (Greenville, SC)
- February 9, 2025:
Texas 66, South Carolina 62 (Austin, Texas)
- January 12, 2o25:
South Carolina 67, Texas 50 (Greenville, SC)
- March 30,2021:
South Carolina 62, Texas 34 (San Antonio, Texas)
- December 1, 2016:
South Carolina 76, Texas 67 (Austin, Texas)
- November 25, 2025: Texas 59, South Carolina 55 (Bahamas)
- March 20, 1988: Texas 77, South Carolina 58 (Austin, Texas)
NCAAW Tournament Final Four : Texas v South Carolina Predictions for Friday, April 4
Best Spread Bet: Texas v South Carolina
- South Carolina -4.5 (-120 FanDuel)
One of my best Final Four bets for today, I placed one unit on the South Carolina Gamecocks to cover the 4.5 favorable spread vs Texas.
The last time I bet on South Carolina, they failed to cover the 17.5 point spread margin vs Maryland. Yes, I'm well aware of their struggles.
- After surging to a 108-48 first round victory over Tennessee Tech, every matchup has been held within 11 points or less.
With a slim four point win margin over Maryland and Duke, I can see why the Gamecocks are slim 4.5 point favorites v Texas. Dawn Staley and company barely survived against the Terrapins and Blue Devils.
When I say barely survive, South Carolina held a thin two point lead over Duke with five seconds remaining in the fourth quarter. It was in fact, Bree Hall's clutch defensive round, and Chloe Kitts two free-throws that saved the day for South Carolina.
Scoring at the collegiate level is always less, but 54 points? Duke cruised their way into the Elite Eight all with defense. Was it concerning South Carolina only had two players score in double figures? Sure, but let's look at the opponent. Duke's defense was second to none in the NCAAW Tournament.
That's not to say Texas doesn't have a defense, because they are one of the most elite in the tournament. Defeating TCU 58-47 last round almost had me rethink my bet. Boasting the 16th best scoring defensive in NCAAW, the Longhorns held opponents to 55.7 points all season.
- One of the nation's best in guarding the perimeter (27.7 %), the Longhorns had one of the best defensive showings of the year.
Tonight's Final Four Matchup Will Be A Defensive Battle Between South Carolina And Texas
In fact, Texas held TCU, one of the heavier offensive teams to just 47 points! We are talking about a TCU team that held the ninth highest three-point percentage (37.6 %) in NCAAW Basketball. A complete masterclass by Vic Schaefer and company, the Longhorns held star Hailey Van Lith to 17 points, on 3-15 shooting.
- What's even scarier is that Texas held the Horned Frogs to 26.7 percent from the field, and 20 percent from beyond the arc.
Do I expect Texas to keep up the defensive momentum? Absolutely. Tonight will showcase two of the top defensive teams in the Longhorns and Gamecocks.
One of the premier defensive teams in the Final Four, this is a South Carolina team that limited opponents to 57.4 points per game. In addition, the Gamecocks rank no. 4 in the nation in opponent field goal percentage (35.2 %), and 29.2 three-point percentage. This is a ruthless defense that will keep Texas in check tonight.
As bettors saw in the Elite Eight, South Carolina didn't allow Duke to surpass 50 points, limiting them to 31.7 percent from the floor, and 29.4 percent from deep. Aside from Toby Fournier's 18 points off the bench, the Blue Devils offense was abysmal. As much as Duke disrupted the Gamecocks flow, South Carolina was relentless on the defensive side of the ball. Although Duke lacks super stardom, restricting Ashlon Jackson and Reigan Richardson to a combined 7-26 from the floor was impressive.
- Overall, Texas and South Carolina are No.1 seeds for a reason. Two of those top offenses, neither team is going to kill the other from beyond the arc, or so I think.
South Carolina Owns Texas Historically
What I do know, is that even though these two teams are SEC Rivals, they've only met seven times in NCAAW history. With South Carolina holding a 5-2 record all-time record, three of their seven meetings came this season!
Ultimately, South Carolina won the regular season series 2-1, including a dominant 64-45 victory to claim the SEC Championship as three-peats.
- Arguably their best defensive showing of the season, the Gamecocks held Texas to 16-54 (29.6 %) from the field, and just 1-8 (12.5 %) from downtown. Stars Madison Booker and Rori Harmon were limited to 10-28 (40%) from the field.
Winning the battle on the boards, Chloe Kitts and Sania Feagin led all Gamecocks starters with 14 and 11 points. The duo makes up one of the strongest front courts in the NCAAW tournament, giving me all the confidence why South Carolina can cover tonight.
In their two victories over Texas this season, South Carolina finished with a 36 point differential. Limiting Texas to 50 points or less in two outings, the trajectory for that to continue is strong. Among those victories, the Longhorns shot an abysmal 28.7 percent from the field. While the three-point factor has been nil for Texas against South Carolina, which version will we see tonight?
We did see the Longhorns defeat South Carolina 66-62 earlier this year, in which the Longhorns didn't hit one three-point shot. While South Carolina was slow to get started, they simply couldn't get over the hump.
Again, I'm not fading Dawn Staley and the South Carolina Gamecocks. They've prevailed in every game, and figured out a way to win ugly games. Now in their fifth final four, this is a team that's looking for their third championship in four seasons. Even against Duke's stingy defense, Staley admitted the Blue Devils disrupted their offensive schemes. They figured out a way, and that's what matters.
- While both coaches are strong, Staley has built a powerhouse in Greenville, SC.
Final NCAAW Tournament Final Four Betting Prediction: South Carolina Gamecocks -4.5 (-120 FanDuel)
I'm more convinced after South Carolina shut down Texas in the SEC Championship. The Gamecocks have the deepest bench in the tournament, and have an elite front court with Kitts and Feagin. Given Tessa Johnson, MiLaysia Fulwiley, and Joyce Edwards are three incredible players off the bench, I simply trust South Carolina's offense more. Sure, it will be a defensive battle, this was the case all year between these two teams.
While it will come down to the turnover and rebounding battle, South Carolina boasts the fourth best scoring margin in NCAAW basketball (+22.4).
- Compare that to Texas, who holds the second best with +22.7.
South Carolina has a formulated a plan how to defeat Texas a long time ago. Their fourth meeting this year, there's no one I trust more to get it done than the Gamecocks. The depth will prevail, which is what Texas greatly lacked last matchup against TCU.
- I'm betting on the South Carolina Gamecocks to cover the -4.5 points spread vs Texas in the Final Four on Friday.
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