Bears vs Commanders Anytime Touchdown Scorer Predictions: NFL Best Bets for Monday, October 13

NFL week 6 is here, and there's a highly anticipated Monday night matchup featuring the Bears and Commanders! After all, it is a rematch of the Hail Mary game!

(Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images)

Tonight, Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears (2-2, 1-1 away) will face Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders (3-2, 2-0 home) on the road. Bears fans might get flashbacks after Jayden Daniels connected with Noah Brown for a 52-yard bomb in October of 2024. With the touchdown, the Commanders went on to beat the Bears with two seconds remaining.

Second in the NFC East behind the Philadelphia Eagles, the Commanders are one season removed from an NFC Championship appearance. Under new ownership, with head coach Dan Quinn and Quarterback Jayden Daniels, Washington is once again a contender.

3-2 on the season, the Commanders get their third home game of the 2025-2026 NFL season, and are fresh off an impressive 27-10 week 5 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers. With the defense holding Justin Hebert and company to zero points after the first quarter, no player exceeded 100 rushing or receiving yards for LA.

For Washington, running back Jacory Croskey-Merritt led the way with 111 rushing yards and two touchdowns.  Wide receiver Deebo Samuel recorded 96 receiving yards on eight receptions for one touchdown. Heading into week 6, the Commanders have victories over the Chargers, Raiders, and Giants. With losses to the Atlanta Falcons and Green Bay Packers, they face an up-and-coming Bears team under head coach Ben Johnson.

Speaking of the Bears, they are riding a two-game winning streak over the Raiders and Cowboys. While it was D'Andre Swift who scored the go-ahead touchdown in the force, the Bears overcame a 16-21 deficit.

Monday Night Football (MNF) Matchup: Chicago Bears vs Washington Commanders

While the Bears hired Johnson from the Detroit Lions, the Bears rank No. 23 in offensive and defensive DVOA. The passing game is the strongest suit of this team, which dropped the first two games to NFC North rivals, the Detroit Lions and the Minnesota Vikings.

Overall, D'Andre Swift has put up underwhelming numbers on the ground, and Rome Odunze has passed DJ Moore as Caleb Williams' top receiver. With several receiving options in Odunze, Moore, Zaccheaus, Kmet, and Burden III—how will the Bears fare tonight? Under coach Quinn, the Commanders rank inside the top 10 in defensive and offensive DVOA.

The books aren't predicting a relatively close matchup on Monday, and the Commanders are 5.5-point spread and -255 moneyline favorites at home. Covering the spread as underdogs the last two games, the Bears get a Commanders team who are 3-2 ATS.

Head-to-head, Washington is 7-2 vs Chicago over their last 10 meetings, and the Commanders last defeated the Bears 18-15 in October 2024. It's a new era, highlighting sophomore quarterbacks Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels. Two franchise quarterbacks, this is a matchup of the future.

The Washington Commanders have the 11th-lowest Super Bowl odds (+2000), while the Bears have the 11th-highest odds (+8000) to raise the Lombardi Trophy.

Let's take a look at my best bets and anytime touchdown scorer predictions for the Monday, October 13, NFL matchup between the Chicago Bears and Washington Commanders.

All of my bets in this article were made separately within FanDuel Sportsbook.

NFL Week 6 Best Bets: Bears vs Commanders Anytime Touchdown Scorer Predictions for Monday, October 13

Jacory Croskey-Merritt Anytime TD Odds: -150 (FanDuel)

2025-2026 NFL Stats

GP: 5  | Carries: 43 | Rushing Yards: 283 | Avg Rushing: 6.6 | Rush TD: 4 | Rec TD: 0 | Rush Long: 42 | First Down: 17

My first best bet for Monday, I placed one unit on Washington Commanders running back Jacory Croskey-Merritt to score a touchdown against the Chicago Bears.

Croskey-Merritt has emerged as the Commanders' lead back after Austin Ekeler went down for the season with an Achilles injury.

Far outplaying backs Jeremy McNichols and Chris Rodriquez Jr., Croskey-Merritt leads the Commanders with 283 rushing yards and 43 carries. Not to mention, he's averaging 6.6 yards per carry and 56.5 rushing yards per game.

In the season opener, Croskey-Merritt rushed for 82 yards on 10 carries with a touchdown against the New York Giants. In week 5, the rookie rushed for a career-high 111 yards and two touchdowns against a stingy Los Angeles Chargers defense. Posting 7.9 yards per carry on 14 carries, Croskey-Merritt helped the Commanders come back from a 10-0 deficit.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt Was A Seventh-Round Steal

Leading all Washington running backs with four touchdowns per game, he's the go-to guy. Leading all backs with 109 snaps, he's coming off 47 percent in the last match. Compare that to McNichols, who played just 25 percent of snaps in week 4.

Under Croskey-Merritt and Daniels, the Commanders are one of the premier rushing teams in the NFL. Ranking No. 5 in rushing DVOA, Washington averages the most rushing yards per game in the NFL (156.4). Better yet, they face a Bears defense that ranks No. 28 in rushing DVOA.

Although the odds are a bit juiced at -150, there's still value here, and this is a strong bet. Not only do the Bears give up the 17th most rushing touchdowns to running backs, but they also rank No. 23 in rush EPA. Aside from Montez Sweat, it isn't easy to trust the Bears' defensive line. Plus, Bears' defensive tackle Grady Jarrett is out for Monday's matchup.

Final NFL Anytime Touchdown Bears vs Commanders Betting Prediction: Jacory Croskey-Merritt ATS Odds: -150 (FanDuel)

Overall, Croskey-Merritt leads the Commanders with 33 rushing attempts, four touchdowns, and six rushing attempts inside the red zone. With 35.3 percent of rushes taken by him, he has a 9.3 rushing touchdown percentage. That's not bad for a player who was drafted in the seventh round out of Arizona!

• I'm taking Jacory Croskey-Merritt to score a touchdown tonight. He's excellent at breaking tackles and has a 27.9 percent broken tackle percentage. With 9.6 touches per game, he ran over 16 percent of routes against the Chargers.
• The Commanders are already without receivers Terry McLaurin and Noah Brown. In addition, Deebo Samuel is listed as questionable for Monday night. Washington runs only 37.9 percent of plays; however, the Bears give up the second-most rushing yards per game (164.5). 

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Rome Odunze Anytime TD Odds: +140 (FanDuel)

2025-2026 NFL Stats

GP:4  | Receptions: 20 | Targets: 35 | Receiving Yards: 296 | Avg: 14.8 | Rec TD: 5 | Rush TD: 0 | Long Rec: 37 | First Down: 16

For my second-best bet on Monday, I placed one unit on Chicago Bears' wide receiver Rome Odunze to score a touchdown tonight.

Now in his second season out of Washington, Odunze has emerged as Caleb Williams' top receiver by a mile. Outperforming DJ Moore, he leads all Bears receivers in targets (35), receiving yards (296), and receptions (20). Odunze is averaging a team-high 74 receiving yards per game. Not to mention, he leads the team with five touchdowns. Of eight total receiving touchdowns, Moore, Cole Kmet, and Luther Burden III have one each.

This isn't out of the ordinary, after former Lions OC Ben Johnson was hired as head coach of Chicago. The Bears are putting up just 328 total offense per game and rank No. 23 in offensive DVOA. Mentioned previously, they average well over 225 passing yards per game, which puts them No. 12 in passing DVOA.

Is Rome Odunze The Official WR1 For Caleb Williams And The Bears?

Although Caleb Williams ranks well outside the top 25 in EPA/play, his chemistry with Odunze is undeniable. With that said, Odunze and Moore each played 76 percent of the snaps in the last game. Olamide Zaccheaus followed with 60 percent, and Cole Kmet with 100 percent. Overall, Odzune leads all receivers with 236 snaps.

We are witnessing a breakout year for Odunze, who's averaging a career-high 14.8 yards per catch. In addition, he's hauling in 26.7 percent of team targets, which is a large amount. Moreover, he's been targeted on nearly 26 percent of routes, and puts up 41.8 percent of team air yards.

Yeah, this guy's a stud.

This may be a popular pick, but I love the value at +14o odds.   I don't trust Moore's or Zaccheau's connection with Williams just yet. After all, Odunze leads all Bears receivers with six targets and two touchdowns inside the red zone. He's been targeted by Williams 40 percent inside the 20-yard line, which is a significant difference from Moore (13.3%), Zaccheaus (26.7%), and Luther Burden III (20%).

Under Johnson, the Bears throw the ball 63.6 percent of plays, and Williams is putting up nearly a five percent big-time throw percentage. Likely to line up outside compared to the slot, Odzune should have a prime matchup against Mike Sainristil or Marshon Lattimore.

Final NFL Anytime Touchdown Bears vs Commanders Betting Prediction: Rome Odunze ATS Odds: +140 (FanDuel)

Luckily for Odunze, the Commanders allow the sixth most touchdowns to receivers, and opponents are scoring over 58 percent in the red zone. The Bears are scoring over 63 percent inside the 20, which makes this such a strong play.

Sure, Williams has various receiving options; however, it's hard to fade his top receiver against a great matchup. Overall, Washington has allowed six touchdowns to receivers this season. With Drake London finding the end zone, the Raiders' wideout scored three touchdowns alone against Chicago on September 21.

• I'm taking Rome Odunze to score a touchdown Monday night. Although Washington ranks No. 9 in success rate, it ranks No. 15 in EPA/play. Look for Odunze to keep the ball rolling on primetime MNF.

Luke McCaffrey Anytime TD Odds: +380 (FanDuel)

2025-2026 NFL Stats

GP: 5  | Receptions: 7 | Targets: 9 | Receiving Yards: 146 | Avg: 20.9 | Rec TD: 2 | Rush TD: 0 | Long Rec: 50 | First Down: 5

For my third-best bet today, I placed one unit on Washington Commanders receiver Luke McCaffrey to score a touchdown against the Chicago Bears.

This may be a long shot play at +380 odds, so always bet responsibly. Here's why I like him to score a touchdown Monday night.

Washington is without star wide receiver Terry McLaurin and now Noah Brown. While Deebo Samuel is questionable, he's expected to play. The leader with three touchdowns, just how healthy will Samuel be if he suits up?

Now in his second season with the Commanders, McCaffrey technically isn't listed as WR1, 2, or three. However, I expect him to step up big tonight.

Not only does McCaffrey have two touchdowns behind Samuel, but he's fourth on the team with 146 receiving yards. Under Daniels, he's put up seven receptions and nine targets. The number that stands out is the 20.9 yards per reception. He's gone long several times for big plays this season—logging a longest reception for 43 and 50 yards against the Raiders and Chargers.

Tallying 50+ receiving yards over the last three games, it's clear McCaffrey is a trusted part of the passing game.  All are doing so by playing just 39 percent of snaps in the last game and 86 overall. If we remember, it was McCaffrey who caught a 50-yard pass for the game-tying field goal against the Chargers last week!

Final NFL Anytime Touchdown Bears vs Commanders Betting Prediction: Luke McCaffrey ATS Odds: +380 (FanDuel)

His usage and snap rate have only increased over the weeks, and this is expected to continue tonight. With a 77.8 percent catch rate, he's averaged an impressive 6.9 yards after the catch.

• While all eyes will be on Samuel and Zach Ertz, McCaffrey is a great option here. I'm taking him to score a touchdown Monday night, especially since the Bears allow the third most touchdowns to wide receivers. In fact, Adam Schefter recently reported that Samuel is expected to play with a heel injury.
  
• Although Chicago has yet to allow a touchdown to a WR2 or WR3, George Pickens (1), Amon-Ra St.Brown (3), and Justin Jefferson (1) have scored a combined five touchdowns over the last four weeks against Chicago.