NFL Best Bets: Matthew Stafford Passing Props Odds & Predictions

Anyone seeking a compelling season-long bet should examine Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford’s player prop market. Despite his age, Stafford remains an elite distributor whose arm talent, processing and command of coach Sean McVay’s offense support another productive season.

In 2025, Stafford threw for 4,777 yards and 46 touchdowns, earning MVP honors while operating one of the NFL’s most explosive passing attacks. Repeating those totals will be difficult, particularly if his touchdown rate regresses, but the underlying environment remains favorable.

(Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images)

McVay’s scheme consistently creates efficient throws and favorable matchups, while Puka Nacua and Davante Adams give Stafford both volume and scoring upside.

Nacua’s ability to generate yards after the catch complements Adams’ precision and red-zone reliability, allowing Stafford to attack every level of the field. Meanwhile, Kyren Williams and Blake Corum provide enough rushing credibility to support play-action and prevent defenses from simply flooding coverage.

The risks are clear: age-related durability concerns, a potentially lower touchdown rate and fewer pass attempts if Los Angeles plays with frequent leads. Still, Stafford’s combination of projected volume, receiving talent and offensive continuity makes him a viable candidate to challenge high-end passing benchmarks. The key question is whether the market is pricing his age fairly, or undervaluing the conditions around him.

Matthew Stafford 2026 Regular-Season Props: Passing Yards + Passing TDs

Here is a look at Matthew Stafford's season passing props (odds via DraftKings):

• Stafford Over/Under 3,899.5 Passing Yards (-110/-110)
• Stafford Over/Under 30.5 Passing TDs (+100/-120)

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Over 3,899 Regular-Season Passing Yards (-110 via DraftKings)

Stafford should be positioned to surpass 3,900 passing yards because the Rams’ offensive structure continues to place substantial responsibility on his arm. The threshold is 877 yards below his 2025 total of 4,777, meaning he could drop 18.4% and still cash the over.

That margin is significant, particularly for a quarterback who has already demonstrated the ability to operate at high volume within McVay’s system. Even if his MVP-level efficiency regresses, his expected workload gives him a strong statistical foundation.

The supporting cast reinforces that projection. Puka Nacua’s ability to generate yards after the catch can turn high-percentage completions into explosive gains, while Davante Adams provides a reliable target on intermediate routes and in the red zone. Together, they should support both Stafford’s completion efficiency and his scoring opportunities.

If the Rams average roughly 35 pass attempts per game across a 17-game schedule, Stafford would finish with 595 attempts. At a modest 7.0 yards per attempt, that workload would produce approximately 4,165 yards, comfortably above the 3,900-yard line.

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Balance Will Help

The Rams' powerful rushing attack should enhance Stafford’s passing efficiency without eliminating the volume necessary to surpass 3,900 yards. Williams and Corum formed the NFL's most productive running-back tandem in 2025, combining for 1,998 yards and 16 touchdowns on 404 carries.

Williams supplied 1,252 yards, 10 touchdowns and 74 rushing first downs, while averaging 4.8 yards per carry. Corum added 746 yards and six scores at an even more explosive 5.1 yards per attempt. Collectively, that production helped Los Angeles finish seventh in rushing yards and sixth with 4.6 yards per carry.

But how does all that rushing equate to passing TDs? Stafford still attempted 597 passes - approximately 35 per game - and threw his 46 touchdowns. Those numbers strongly suggest McVay views the running game as a complement to Stafford, not a replacement. Williams and Corum force linebackers and safeties to respect the run, creating larger passing windows through play action, pre-snap motion and McVay’s layered route combinations.

That balance becomes especially valuable late in close games, when Los Angeles can threaten the run without taking the ball out of Stafford’s hands. In the fourth quarter last season, Stafford completed 71% of his passes, threw 12 touchdowns and recorded a 126.4 passer rating, demonstrating how productive he remained when game scripts demanded late passing.

To achieve this benchmark, Stafford would need to average only 6.5 yards per attempt over 600 throws, or approximately 6.8 over 575 attempts. Both figures are comfortably below his 2025 average of 7.9 and his career mark of 7.4.

Last 5 Passing Totals for Matthew Stafford

• 2025: 4,707 yards, 46 TDs (17 games)
• 2024: 3,762 yards, 20 TDs (16 games)
• 2023: 3,965 yards, 24 TDs (15 games)
• 2022: 2,087 yards, 10 TDs (9 games)
• 2021: 4,886 yards, 41 TDs (17 games)

Over 30.5 Regular-Season Passing TDs (+100 via DraftKings)

Stafford is also positioned to throw at least 31 touchdown passes because the Rams return the same two receivers who powered his league-leading 46-touchdown performance in 2025. Reaching 31 would be a substantial 32.6% decline from last season, giving Stafford plenty of room for regression while still clearing the proposed total.

Adams remains the centerpiece of the touchdown argument. Despite missing the final three regular-season games with a hamstring injury, Adams led the NFL with 14 touchdown receptions. It was the third season of his career with at least 14 scores, while his 117 career touchdown catches rank seventh in league history.

Adams is more than a high-volume receiver; he is one of the most accomplished red-zone specialists the position has produced. His release package, route precision and ability to win contested catches give Stafford a dependable scoring option when the field becomes compressed.

Nacua provides the Rams with a different but equally imposing threat. He led the NFL with 129 receptions in 2025 while producing 1,715 yards and 10 touchdowns in 16 games. Nacua also averaged 107.2 receiving yards per game, generated 80 first-down catches and averaged an exceptional 3.8 yards per route run.

His ability to create separation, break tackles and turn underneath completions into scores gives Stafford touchdown opportunities from well beyond the red zone. Together, Nacua and Adams combined for 24 receiving touchdowns last season, meaning the league’s most productive starting tandem nearly supplied enough scores by itself to approach Stafford’s new threshold.

Additional Weaponry

The secondary options strengthen the projection. Tight end Davis Allen contributed three touchdown receptions in 2025, while Tyler Higbee gives Stafford an experienced middle-of-the-field target. Jordan Whittington can create after the catch, and the return of Tutu Atwell restores a familiar vertical threat who has averaged 14.6 yards per reception during his career. This depth prevents defenses from devoting all their coverage resources to Adams and Nacua.

The required efficiency is also reasonable. Stafford threw 46 touchdowns on 597 attempts last season, producing a career-high 7.7% touchdown rate. If he attempts approximately 575 passes in 2026, he would need a touchdown rate of only 5.4% to reach 31. That represents significant regression and remains well below the 6.8% rate he posted while throwing 41 touchdowns during the Rams' 2021 championship season.

With Adams dominating condensed areas, Nacua generating touchdowns through volume and explosiveness, and multiple complementary targets occupying defensive attention, Stafford does not need another MVP-level season. He merely needs to preserve a portion of last year’s production to throw at least 31 touchdowns.

W.G. Ramirez is a veteran sports writer from Las Vegas and a Staff Analyst at Ballislife Bets. Follow him on X at @WillieGRamirez