NFL Best Bets Today (Oct. 4): Week 4 Odds & Predictions for Sunday

Three weeks into the NFL season, the standings are starting to tell a story. For bettors, the challenge is deciding whether that story matches the team taking the field Sunday. A winning record can conceal offensive problems. A losing record can disguise competitive football against difficult opponents. And one injury can change a matchup faster than three weeks of statistics can explain it.

That distinction matters on this week's board. The Giants enter their matchup with Arizona at 2-1, but quarterback Jaxson Dart and pass rusher Brian Burns are lost for the season. Detroit also sits 2-1, with an offense that has delivered the same scoring output every week, yet the Lions are still searching for their first ATS victory. Kansas City and Las Vegas, meanwhile, have combined for six wins without a loss, setting up an early battle for control of the AFC West.

(Photo by: Amy Kontras/Getty Images)

Look Beyond The Standings With Three Weeks Of Evidence

Now comes Week 4, when the picture gets clearer without becoming complete. We have enough football to identify recurring strengths, but circumstances still matter. Who produced those numbers? Against which opponents? And how much of that production can carry into a matchup with different personnel and a different game plan?

Arizona's visit to New York puts those questions front and center. The Cardinals' record looks worse than the Giants', but New York's injuries have changed the comparison considerably.

Sunday also offers two very different tests for established offenses. Detroit visits Carolina for a primetime matchup against a defense dealing with significant personnel losses. Kansas City travels to Allegiant Stadium, where the Raiders' undefeated start has been supported by a defense that has made opponents pay for mistakes.

The calendar has turned to October. Our approach remains the same: identify the matchup advantage, respect the opposing argument and find a number worth playing.

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NFL Betting Odds For Sunday, Oct. 4 (DraftKings)

Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants

• Spread: Arizona -2.5 (-112) | New York +2.5 (-108)
• Moneyline: Arizona -135 | New York +114
• Total: O/U 44.5 (-108/-112)

Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders

• Spread: Kansas City -4.5 (-115) | Las Vegas +4.5 (-105)
• Moneyline: Kansas City -225 | Las Vegas +185
• Total: O/U 47.5 (-115/-105)

Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers

• Spread: Detroit -3.5 (-115) | Carolina +3.5 (-105)
• Moneyline: Detroit -192 | Carolina +160
• Total: O/U 51.5 (-102/-118)

September is in the books. The first impressions have been formed. Now October asks whether those impressions can survive a closer look.

It's time to attack the board.

Week 4 gives us a better statistical foundation, but records alone still won't cash a ticket. Injuries can undermine a winning team. A productive offense can remain undervalued after a competitive loss. And two teams scoring consistently can still meet in a matchup built around defensive strengths.

We're looking for those differences between perception and opportunity.

That means evaluating Arizona against the Giants available this Sunday. It means examining how Carolina can cover Detroit's weapons with a depleted secondary. And it means asking whether Chiefs-Raiders deserves the offensive expectations attached to its quarterbacks.

NFL Best Bets for Week 4 (Oct. 4)

Three different matchups. Three different paths to an edge.

The following three wagers stand out as the best bets on the Week 4 NFL card (Odds via DraftKings):

Cardinals -2.5 over Giants (-112)

Arizona's 1-2 record doesn't tell the entire story. The Cardinals just scored 30 points at San Francisco, and Jacoby Brissett has completed 70.1 percent of his passes for 652 yards, four touchdowns and just one interception through three games. Trey McBride has provided a dependable outlet with 26 receptions for 211 yards and two scores.

The more revealing comparison involves New York's current personnel. Dart is out for the season, and Burns' torn ACL removes a major pass-rush threat. Against Brissett, that second loss could be especially costly.

Brissett has completed 78.6 percent of his passes from clean pockets, with four touchdowns, no interceptions and a 107.4 rating. Under pressure, his completion rate drops to 48.5 percent and his rating falls to 48.9. New York needs disruption, but must generate it without Burns.

Giants' Winning Record Hides Tougher Assignment

Jameis Winston hasn't provided the same stability. His third-down passer rating over the past two weeks is 38.4, while Arizona ranks 10th in offensive success rate despite facing a demanding early schedule. That creates an advantage in sustaining possessions and avoiding the mistakes that decide competitive games.

Rookie running back Jeremiyah Love also showed progress against San Francisco, rushing for 90 yards on 21 carries and adding a receiving touchdown. A credible running threat gives Brissett another way to keep New York from loading up against McBride.

Arizona is 2-1 ATS, but the Giants are also 2-1 ATS and have covered both home games. This isn't a dismissal of New York's competitiveness.

It's a bet that Arizona's steadier quarterback play and multiple possession-building options can exploit a Giants team now missing two of its most important players.

Under 47.5 points Chiefs at Raiders (-105)

Matching scoring averages make the offensive case easy to see: Kansas City and Las Vegas are each producing 29.3 points per game. But this matchup brings together defenses that have been considerably more reliable than an automatic shootout expectation suggests.

Kansas City allows only 16.7 points and 278 yards per game, ranking among the NFL's best in both categories. The Chiefs surrender 4.7 yards per play, third-fewest, and rank sixth in both opponent EPA per play and opponent success rate. Las Vegas allows 18 points per game and ranks second in opponent EPA per play.

That combination suggests sustained touchdown drives will be harder to manufacture than either offense's scoring average implies.

Defense Can Dictate This AFC West Showdown

The Raiders' offense also needs closer examination. Las Vegas averages 311.7 yards, ranking 19th, and has benefited from nine takeaways and a league-leading plus-five turnover margin. Its defense has helped generate 23 points off turnovers. Repeating that favorable field position against Patrick Mahomes is a different assignment.

Both offensive lines have injury concerns. Kansas City will be without tackle Josh Simmons, while Raiders right guard Jackson Powers-Johnson is out. Protection problems can disrupt passing rhythm and put either offense behind schedule.

This play faces legitimate threats. Kenneth Walker III leads the league with 360 rushing yards, and Brock Bowers returned with 10 catches for 116 yards and a touchdown. Either can change a possession quickly.

Still, the Under is 6-4 in the last 10 meetings — including the last three — and 8-2 in Kansas City's last 10 games. The Raiders, meanwhile, have stayed low in eight of their last 13 in Las Vegas. With both defenses limiting efficiency, I expect more contested possessions and fewer clean scoring opportunities than the offensive headlines suggest.

Lions -3.5 over Panthers (-115)

Detroit's offense has been remarkably consistent, scoring 31 points in each of its first three games. Jared Goff has thrown eight touchdown passes without an interception, last week completing 25-of-32 passes for 269 yards and two touchdowns against the Jets.

Carolina presents an inviting matchup for that efficiency. The Panthers allow 27.7 points per game, ranking tied for 27th, and now both starting cornerbacks, Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson, are on injured reserve. Asking replacements to handle Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams and Detroit's other receiving options puts considerable pressure on the entire defense.

Jahmyr Gibbs further complicates the assignment after scoring three touchdowns against New York. Carolina must defend Detroit across the field while accounting for a back who can punish coverage attention directed elsewhere.

Carolina's Injuries Open The Door For Detroit

The Panthers have problems on offense, too. Left guard Damien Lewis and receiver Xavier Legette are ruled out, while right tackle Monroe Freeling and receiver Jalen Coker are questionable. Detroit has registered 12 sacks, with Aidan Hutchinson contributing 3.5 and three other defenders already reaching two apiece.

There is a real opposing argument. Bryce Young leads the league with 313 passing yards per game, and Detroit allows a league-worst 299.3. The Lions are also 1-2 ATS, while Carolina has covered 12 consecutive games following a straight-up loss dating to 2024.

Those numbers deserve respect. But trends don't replace the players missing Sunday. Detroit has the healthier offensive foundation, a quarterback protecting the ball and several ways to attack Carolina's replacement corners.

Back that combination to put the Lions in position to earn their first cover.

W.G. Ramirez is a veteran sports writer from Las Vegas and a Staff Analyst at Ballislife Bets. Follow him on X at @WillieGRamirez