NFL Best Bets Today (Sept. 27): Week 3 Odds & Picks for Sunday

The first two weeks of the NFL season have reminded bettors why September can be the most dangerous — and potentially profitable — stretch on the betting calendar: the market is still searching for the right number. Point spreads are adjusting quickly, preseason power ratings are being challenged, and bettors must decide which early results reflect legitimate trends and which are simply small-sample noise.

We’ve already seen how dramatically perceptions can change from one Sunday to the next. Chicago exploded for 59 points in Week 1, then managed only three against Minnesota, the second-largest scoring drop from Week 1 to Week 2 in NFL history.

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Cincinnati has opened 2-0 behind a defense showing significant improvement, while Kansas City also sits 2-0 after Patrick Mahomes threw for 382 yards and three touchdowns in an overtime victory over Indianapolis. Seattle, meanwhile, carried a franchise-record 12-game winning streak — including last postseason — through Week 2.

Two Weeks of Evidence ... Now The Market Gets Serious

Now comes Week 3, when bettors finally have two full games of evidence to compare against the numbers oddsmakers established during the summer. That creates fascinating decisions: Are we buying what we’ve seen, selling an overreaction or grabbing value on a team the market has downgraded too quickly?

And the schedule provides plenty of opportunities to answer those questions.

The Chargers travel to Buffalo after dropping their first two games, while Cincinnati and Pittsburgh renew an AFC North rivalry. Baltimore and Dallas take their 1-1 records to Rio de Janeiro for the NFL’s first regular-season game there, and Sunday night gives us a matchup between last season’s conference championship runners-up when the Rams visit Denver to face the Broncos.

Week 3 is where early-season impressions begin turning into betting opinions, and where separating reality from September noise becomes increasingly important.

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NFL Betting Odds For Sunday, Sept. 27

(Odds via FanDuel)

Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills

• Spread: Los Angeles +7.5 (-120) | Buffalo -7.5 (-102)
• Moneyline: Los Angeles (+295) | Buffalo (-370)
• Total: O/U 50.5 (-105/-115)

Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins

• Spread: Kansas City -10.5 (-112) | Miami +10.5 (-108)
• Moneyline: Kansas City (-700) | Miami (+500)
• Total: O/U 45.5 (-105/-115)

Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints

• Spread: Las Vegas +3 (-102) | New Orleans -12.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Las Vegas (+152) | New Orleans (-180)
• Total: O/U 43.5 (-112/-108)

Two weeks are in the books. The oddsmakers have made their adjustments. The betting public has picked its favorites.

Now it’s time to attack the board.

Week 3 is where the NFL betting market starts getting interesting. We have enough evidence to recognize strengths and weaknesses, but not enough football for every number to be completely dialed in. That means opportunity.

We’re looking for inflated favorites. Undervalued dogs. Totals that don’t match the matchup. And, most importantly, numbers that still give us an edge before the market takes it away.

Forget chasing what happened last Sunday. This is about identifying what happens next.

There are 15 games left on the Week 3 board, but we don’t need action on all of them. We need the right games at the right numbers.

The following three wagers stand out as the best bets on the NFL card (Odds via FanDuel):

Bills -7.5 over Chargers (-120)

Buffalo has been the NFL’s early offensive wrecking ball, scoring 77 points through two games while averaging 427.5 yards and 38.5 points. The Bills lead the league at 7.1 yards per play, and rank second with 14.6 yards per pass completion. They're also third in the NFL in third-down conversion, at 57.1 percent.

Josh Allen has completed 40 of 60 passes for 582 yards, five touchdowns and zero interceptions, producing a 125.8 rating. He has added four rushing touchdowns, becoming the first quarterback ever with five passing scores and four rushing scores through two games. Against Detroit, Allen accounted for five touchdowns while James Cook rushed for 135 yards and Dalton Kincaid caught seven passes for 95 yards and a score.

Can't Compare To Buffalo's Offensive Machine

Now compare that production with Los Angeles. The Chargers are 0-2 SU and ATS, averaging only 14 points. Justin Herbert completed 15 of 27 passes for 192 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions against Las Vegas. Los Angeles ranks 23rd offensively with 578 yards, 21st defensively in allowing 698 yards and has been outscored by 24 points.

Buffalo is 2-0 ATS and has covered four straight after allowing fewer than 90 rushing yards. The Bills also receive a scheduling advantage: a second consecutive home game after playing Thursday, while Los Angeles travels cross-country for its first road game of the season.

Buffalo’s offensive efficiency creates little margin for error. If Los Angeles falls behind early, Herbert must chase Allen in a building where Buffalo can dictate tempo. Eight points is substantial, but through two weeks the separation between these teams has been even larger.

Chiefs (-10.5) over Dolphins (-112)

Kansas City enters 2-0 with an offense that looks increasingly difficult for Miami to match possession for possession. Mahomes erupted for 382 yards and three touchdowns against Indianapolis, completing 32 of 47 passes, and now heads to a building where his only previous start produced 393 yards and two scores. Mahomes has also thrown for at least 250 yards in four consecutive road games.

The supporting cast is creating problems everywhere. Kenneth Walker III has opened the season with consecutive 175-plus scrimmage-yard performances, including 117 rushing and 61 receiving last week. Travis Kelce just delivered nine catches for 101 yards and a touchdown, while Xavier Worthy and Jalen Royals also found the end zone.

Dolphins Don't Have What It Takes

Miami enters 0-2 SU and ATS after 14- and 22-point losses. The Dolphins rank 27th offensively and 30th defensively in the early efficiency profile, while Kansas City sits first offensively and third defensively. Miami is also generating pressure on only 18 percent of opponent dropbacks and has yet to record a sack.

Malik Willis was efficient last week, posting a 103 passer rating, but Miami has scored only 13 points in each game. De’Von Achane has just 159 scrimmage yards through two weeks.

Kansas City is only 1-1 ATS, so laying double digits requires respect. But the Chiefs own massive advantages at quarterback, explosive-play potential and overall efficiency. If Miami again struggles to reach 20, Mahomes and Kansas City have the offensive firepower to create separation. That combination makes Miami vulnerable from opening kickoff.

Over 43.5 points Raiders at Saints (-112)

The instinct may be Under because Las Vegas is 2-0 to the Under, but offensive numbers make 43.5 inviting here. The Raiders are averaging 26.5 points, while New Orleans is producing 27 per game. A repeat of those scoring averages sails comfortably beyond this number.

Kirk Cousins has thrown three touchdown passes in each of his first two games, becoming the first Raiders quarterback since Ken Stabler in 1976 to do so. He threw for 253 yards against the Chargers, with Tre Tucker exploding for 119 yards and a touchdown. Las Vegas could also get Brock Bowers back; he finished with 1,874 receiving yards over his first two NFL seasons.

Light Up The Scoreboard In The Superdome

New Orleans provides the stronger statistical reason to expect points. Tyler Shough has completed 62 of 90 passes for 662 yards, four touchdowns and two interceptions, a 95.7 rating. The Saints are averaging 383.5 total yards, including 305.5 passing yards per game, while converting 50 percent on third down. Chris Olave already has 18 receptions for 268 yards.

The matchup offers additional scoring paths. New Orleans allows 136.5 rushing yards per game, 26th in the league, and Las Vegas allows four yards per carry. Both defenses can be attacked when either offense stays balanced.

Yes, recent trends lean Under: Las Vegas is 0-2 O/U and New Orleans 1-1. But this is a modest total for two offenses averaging 53.5 combined points. We need 44. Count on both quarterbacks to create enough explosive plays to get there.

W.G. Ramirez is a veteran sports writer from Las Vegas and a Staff Analyst at Ballislife Bets. Follow him on X at @WillieGRamirez