NFL Best Bets For Tonight's MNF (October 13): Bills vs Falcons Betting Odds & Player Prop Bets

Monday Night Football is here! While there are two games scheduled for MNF, let's focus on the Bills and Falcons showdown.

(Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images)

Tonight, Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills (4-1, 1-0 away) will square off against Michael Penix Jr. and the Atlanta Falcons (2-2, 1-1 home).

3.5-point spread favorites on the road, the Bills lead the AFC East with a 4-1 record. Undefeated on the road, the Bills have victories over the Ravens, Jets, Dolphins, and Saints. That's not saying much given all of those teams hold a sub .500 record. In week 5, they were outscored and outplayed by division rival Drake Maye and the New England Patriots (23-20). While the Patriots' defense was steady, it was Andy Borregales who kicked a 52-yard field goal to capture New England's road victory in Orchard Park.

Last week, it was all Josh Allen, who threw for 253 yards and two touchdowns. With a fair abysmal running game with James Cook III, Dalton Kincaid let the way with 108 receiving yards. With various threats, the Bills couldn't get it done against New England. Now they get a stingy Falcons defense on the road.

Monday Night Football Matchup: Buffalo Bills vs Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons remain one of the best defensive units in the NFL, allowing just eight touchdowns and 244 defensive yards through week 5. With a 2-2 record on the season, it's been tumultuous for this group so far. Not only was Michael Penix Jr. benched for Kirk Cousins in the Falcons' 0-30 blowout loss against the Panthers, but they also lost to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 23-30.

While it's hard to grasp this team's identity as a whole, the Falcons are coming off an impressive 34-27 victory in week 4 over the Washington Commanders. While the Commanders were without star quarterback Jayden Daniels,  Penix Jr. had a massive performance with 313 passing yards and two touchdowns. Both Drake London (110 ) and Bijan Robinson (106) led Atlanta with 100+ receiving yards each.

Atlanta heads into week 6 with both momentum and home-field advantage. Can they knock off Josh Allen and the Bills? Buffalo is 2-0 against Atlanta since 2017, and last defeated the Falcons 29-15 in January of 2022.

Heading into tonight's matchup, the Buffalo Bills are the favorite on FanDuel Sportsbook to win the 2025-2026 Super Bowl (+500). For the Falcons, they have the 13th-highest odds (+6500) to raise the Lombardi trophy.

Odds Are Current As Of October 13 AT 10 A.M. ET

Although the Bills are 2-0 against the Falcons since 2017, the two teams have split a 2-2 record head-to-head since 2009. This presents a unique scouting challenge, given that both teams haven't faced each other since 2022. The Bills will be without linebacker Matt Milano and possibly without tight end Dalton Kincaid, who's questionable to play. For the Falcons, wide receiver Darnell Mooney has been ruled out, along with safety Billy Bowman Jr.

Kickoff is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET and is set to be broadcast on ESPN. This time, the Falcons get home advantage at Mercedes-Benz Stadium for the second straight game.

Up over 25 units in week 6 of NFL Sunday, you can find all my bets here at Ballislife.com, our betting discord, and the Pikkit App (@SaraJaneGamelli).

In this article, you will find a mix of player prop bets from quarterbacks and receivers. In addition, I've offered my best spread bet on who will cover on MNF.

Let's take a deeper look at my three best bets player prop picks and predictions for the Monday, October 13, NFL matchup featuring the Buffalo Bills and Atlanta Falcons.

Are you in search of further NFL and sports betting promotions? We have compiled a list of the best sports betting offers here. 

NFL WEEK 6 BETS: Buffalo Bills vs Atlanta Falcons FanDuel Odds For October 13

MONEYLINE

• BUFFALO BILLS: -205
• ATLANTA FALCONS: +172

SPREAD

• BUFFALO BILLS: -3.5 (-115)
• ATLANTA FALCONS: +3.5 (-105)

OVER/UNDER (TOTAL)

• OVER: 49.5 (-118)
• UNDER: 49.5 (-104)

BEST ODDS FOR  BUFFALO BILLS VS ATLANTA FALCONS

• Caesars has the best odds, favoring the Buffalo Bills by 3.5 points (-115)
• The Atlanta Falcons will get their third home matchup this NFL season.  DraftKings offers the best odds at -112 tabbing the Dolphins as 4.5-point underdogs.
• BetMGM and DraftKings Sportsbook currently offer the best odds for the game totals. BetMGM offers the best value for the under (50) at -110, while DraftKings offers the best value for the over (49.5) at -118 odds.

Buffalo Bills vs Atlanta Falcons Injury Report

BILLS

1. Matt Milano, LB: OUT
2. Curtis Samuel, KR: Questionable
3. Damar Hamlin, SS: IR
4. Tyler Bass, PK: IR

FALCONS

1. Darnell Mooney, WR: OUT
2. Billy Bowman Jr., NB: Questionable
3. Clark Phillips III, CB: OUT
4. LaCale London, NT: OUT

*Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook*

NFL Predictions for Monday, October 13, Week 6: Bills vs Falcons

NFL Player Prop Bets Tonight: Josh Allen

2025-2026 Season Stats

GP: 5  | CMP: 107 | Attempts: 152 | CMP: 70.4 % | Passing Yards: 1,217 | Passing TD: 9 | Pass Long: 51 | Rushing Yards:212 | Rushing TD: 3

• OVER 33.5 Rushing Yards (-114 FanDuel)

My first best bet for today, I placed one unit on Buffalo Bills starting quarterback Josh Allen to record over 33.5 rushing yards against the Atlanta Falcons.

The favorite to win the NFL MVP at +140 odds, Josh Allen, continues his hot start to the season. A dual threat, not only can Allen sling the football, but he's also one of the best at using his legs to move the chains. He sits only second behind James Cook III with 212 rushing yards on the season.

In fact, he leads the Bills with 5.3 rushing yards per carry and has totaled a longest rush of 40 yards to pair with three touchdowns. Is there anything Josh Allen can't do?

Averaging 42.4 rushing yards per game through five weeks, Allen last rushed for 53 yards on nine carries against a stingy New England Patriots defense. With 98 rushing yards over the last two weeks, Allen has exceeded this player prop line in three of the previous four games.

Josh Allen Has The Best Odds To Win The NFL MVP Award

Tonight marks the highest rushing prop line of the season, as Allen's line has hovered anywhere from 26.5 to 32.5 rushing yards this season.

With that said, Allen is one of the best scramblers in the game and ranks No. 7 with an 11.6 scramble percentage. Additionally, he's top 6 in rush EPA (12.54), and sits behind Justin Fields and Patrick Mahomes with the third-most rushing yards among running backs (212).

Overall, the Bills have a strong offensive line with Dion Dawkins, David Edwards, Connor McGovern, O'Cyrus Torrence, and Spencer Brown. Allen holds just under a 5 percent sack rate; however, he faces a Falcons defense that ranks No.4 in defensive dropback sack rate.

With edge rushers James Pearce Jr. and Jalon Walker, the Falcons are giving up 22.8 rushing yards to quarterbacks. If linebacker Divine Deablo gets past that defensive line, Allen will absolutely be running for his life.

Final Bills vs Falcons NFL betting prediction: Josh Allen OVER 33.5 Rushing Yards (-114 FanDuel)

This season, the Falcons allow the 12th most rushing yards to quarterbacks, and we've seen J.J. McCarthy (25) and Baker Mayfield (39) rush for a good amount of yards.

Behind Allen and Cook, the Bills rank No. 3 in offensive rushing DVOA. Conversely, Atlanta ranks No. 12 in defensive rushing DVOA.

• I'm taking Josh Allen to record over 33.5 rushing yards tonight. With over 200 yards on the ground, he's second among all quarterbacks in rushing attempts. Given the Falcons' rank No. 1 in defensive passing DVOA, this may be a challenging night for Allen and his receivers.  The last time he faced the Falcons, Allen rushed for 81 yards. 

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NFL Player Prop Bets Tonight: Joshua Palmer

2025-2026 Season Stats

GP: 5 | REC: 12 | TGTS: 18 | REC Yards: 174 | AVG: 14.5 | Long: 32 | FD: 8 | TD: 0

• OVER 12.5 Longest Reception (-120 FanDuel)

My second best bet for Monday, I placed one unit on Buffalo Bills wide receiver Joshua Palmer to record over a 12.5 longest reception tonight.

Palmer is Josh Allen's fourth receiving option behind Dalton Kincaid, Khalil Shakir, and Keon Coleman. Aforementioned, Kincaid is listed as questionable—if he's unable to go, this could massively benefit Palmer.

Palmer isn't the top guy; he's recorded just 89 receiving yards on 12 receptions and 18 targets. However, he's very much been the downfield guy for Allen. Averaging a second-best 14.5 yards per reception for the Bills, Palmer has fulfilled three massive plays for Buffalo this season.

You may be wondering why I'm betting on a player who averaged just 34.8 receiving yards per game. Last week, Palmer played 51 percent of snaps and ranks third in snap count on Buffalo. With a 25+percent increase in snap counts, that's encouraging.

Why Joshua Palmer Can Clear This Player Prop Line Monday Night  Against The Falcons

Although Josh Allen has several weapons to throw to, 12.5 is a tad low for this player prop. Palmer has recorded back-to-back 32 longest receptions against the Ravens and Jets in weeks 1 and 2. Not to mention, he's soared over this line easily in four of five games this season. In fact, through 5 weeks, he's averaging a 21.1 longest reception.

As mentioned before, the Falcons are elite against the pass. Ranking No.1 in pass DVOA, they also rank first in defensive DVOA. In addition to boosting their defense in the 2025 NFL Draft, Jessie Bates III and Xavier Watts hold it down in the Falcons' secondary.

Primarily lined up in the wide vs the slot, this isn't an elite matchup for Palmer. With that, the Falcons allow the fifth fewest receiving yards to receivers.

Don't let that fool you, given WR1s in Deebo Samuel (24), Tetairoa McMillan (23), Justin Jefferson (50), and Emeka Egbuka (30) have all had success with the longest receptions. Plus, secondary receivers Luke McCaffrey (16), Adam Thielen (19), and Sterling Shepard (19) have all soared over this player prop line.

Final Bills vs Falcons NFL betting prediction: Joshua Palmer OVER 12.5 Longest Reception (-120 FanDuel)

The books are sleeping on this line tonight. While Palmer has just four receptions in the last two games, he's averaging a 66.7 percent catch rate and 19 percent of the team's air yards. Although targets are low, he makes every catch count.

• I'm taking Josh Palmer to record over a 12.5 longest reception. The line should be higher, and he already has three 20+ yard catches this season. Above all, Josh Allen is his quarterback. 

Spread Bet Tonight: Buffalo Bills vs Atlanta Falcons

• Buffalo Bills -3.5 (-115 FanDuel)

For my third best bet tonight, I placed one unit on the Buffalo Bills to cover the 3.5-point spread on the road against the Atlanta Falcons.

With a 2-2 record, we've seen the Falcons roll over the Vikings, 22-6, and the Commanders, 34-27. With that said, they covered the spread in both of those matchups.

While week 4 was impressive, the Commanders were without quarterback Jayden Daniels. How can I confidently say they can cover tonight after losing to the Carolina Panthers 0-30 in week 4?

Everyone seems to be focused on the Bills' rushing defense. Yes, they will face Bijan Robinson, one of the best running backs in the NFL. With that, they rank No. 30 in defensive DVOA. Without Matt Milano, I don't see Buffalo doing much to stop the run.

While it hasn't been the Bills' defense that's stepped up (No. 22 in defensive DVOA), they've been one of the most potent teams on the offensive end (No. 6 offensive DVOA). Not only that, but they have an MVP candidate in quarterback Josh Allen.  Cracking the top 5 in passing, the Bills remain one of the most elite running teams in the league.

Why The Buffalo Bills Can Cover The Spread Monday

Sure, the Bills flat-out lost to the Patriots at home, and couldn't cover an 8.0-point spread. However, this is the slimmest point spread margin since week 1 against the Ravens. While the books are predicting a close matchup, the Bills will look to redeem themselves from last week.

We are talking about a Bills team that leads the AFC East with a +40 point differential and ranks first in the NFL with 395.8 offensive yards and 30.6 points per game. Under Josh Allen, Buffalo puts up the second-most rushing yards per game (154.4) and the eighth-most passing yards per game (241.4).

With 1,217 yards, nine touchdowns, and just two interceptions, Josh Allen gets a top defensive team.

This is where the Falcons lose me. I'm not 100 percent sold on Michael Penix Jr., who will face a forgiving and banged-up Bills defense. He is arguably coming off his best game of the season, where he threw for 313 yards and two touchdowns against the Commanders. However, the Falcons rank No. 21 in offensive DVOA. On the season, Penix Jr. has tallied 919 yards for three touchdowns and three interceptions.

Final Bills vs Falcons NFL betting prediction: Buffalo Bills -3.5 (-115 FanDuel)

Overall, Penix Jr. ranks No. 27 in total EPA, and ranks well outside the top 30 in pass EPA and success percentage. While the Falcons have Drake London and Bijan Robinson, is it enough to get past the 4-1 Buffalo Bills?

Buffalo is arguably coming off its worst loss of the season, and it still only lost by a 52-yard field goal. The Bills are coming off less rest, which we have to take into account vs the Falcons, who are fresh off a BYE week.  Although the Falcons have been elite against the pass, they've yet to face a quarterback like Josh Allen (That is no disrespect to Bryce Young and Marcus Mariota).

• I'm laying the points with the Bills tonight. The Falcons are 1-1 ATS at home, and Michael Penix Jr. is the true x-factor tonight. While they have the home field advantage, the Bills are 1-0 ATS on the road. Josh Allen and the Bills can beat you several ways, and if the pass isn't there, expect James Cook and Allen to have a massive game on the ground. While I'm tempted to take Atlanta here, I expect Buffalo to bounce back.