NFL Best Bets For Tonight's TNF (November 20): Bills vs Texans Betting Odds & Player Prop Bets

Ballislife is back with NFL picks, this time featuring a week 12 Thursday night matchup between the Bills and Texans!

(Photo by Kathryn Riley/Getty Images)

Tonight, Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills (7-3, 2-2 away) will head to the Lone Star State to take on Davis Mills and the Houston Texans (5-5, 3-2 home).

5.5-point spread and -275 moneyline favorites on the road, the Bills will get a C.J. Stroud-less Texans team that just announced running back Joe Mixon will miss the remainder of the season.

It's been a tumultuous season for the Texans with high-highs and low-lows. Winning three of their last four matchups, two of them came against AFC South division rivals, the Tennessee Titans and the Jacksonville Jaguars. After a 0-3 start to the season, the Texans have crawled their way back. That includes a 36-29 come-from-behind victory over Jacksonville just two weeks ago.

At 7-3, the Bills sit second in the AFC East behind the Patriots, and are fresh off a 44-32 shootout victory against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Josh Allen is 8-0 on Thursday nights in his career, do the Bills make it two in a row tonight? Enduring brutal losses this season to the Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots, and Atlanta Falcons, which version of Buffalo will we see Thursday?

Although underdogs at home tonight, the Texans are 6-3 against the Bills since 2006, and 3-0 vs Buffalo since 2020! Though both teams are vastly revamped, Houston last defeated the Bills 23-20 in October 2024. Given that both teams are in the playoff hunt, tonight is a crucial game for both squads.

The Bills are the third favorites (+800) to win Super Bowl LX, while the Texans have higher odds to raise the Lombardi Trophy (+6500).

RELATED: BILLS VS TEXANS ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN SCORER BETS 

Odds Are Current As Of November 20 AT 1 P.M. ET

If you're looking to bet on the NFL and tonight's matchup between the Bills and Texans, welcome!

Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. and tonight's showdown will air on Amazon Prime Video.

In this article, you will find a mix of running back, quarterback, and kick plays all placed within FanDuel Sportsbook!

Let's take a deeper look at my three best bets, player prop picks, and predictions for the Thursday, Nov. 20, NFL matchup featuring the Buffalo Bills and Houston Texans!

Are you in search of further NFL and sports betting promotions? We have compiled a list of the best sports betting offers here. 

NFL WEEK 12 BETS: Buffalo Bills vs Houston Texans FanDuel Odds For November 20

MONEYLINE

• BUFFALO BILLS: -270
• HOUSTON TEXANS: +220

SPREAD

• BUFFALO BILLS: -5.5 (-112)
• HOUSTON TEXANS: +5.5 (-108)

OVER/UNDER (TOTAL)

• OVER: 44.5 (-110)
• UNDER: 44.5 (-110)

BEST ODDS FOR BUFFALO BILLS VS HOUSTON TEXANS

• BetMGM has the best odds, favoring the Buffalo Bills by 5.5 points (-110)
• The Houston Texans will get their sixth home game this NFL season.  BetMGM offers the best odds at +100, tabbing the Texans as +5.5-point spread underdogs.
• Caesars and FanDuel Sportsbook currently offer the best odds for the game totals. FanDuel offers the best value for the under (44.5) at -110, while Caesars offers the best value for the over (43.5) at -115 odds.

 Buffalo Bills vs Houston Texans Injury Report

BILLS

1. Dalton Kincaid, TE: OUT
2. Curtis Samuel, WR: OUT
3. Mecole Hardman, WR: OUT
4. Tyler Bass, K: IR
5. Phidarian Mathis, DT: Questionable

TEXANS

1. C.J. Stroud, QB: OUT
2. Jalen Pitre, S: OUT
3. Jimmie Ward, FS: OUT
4. Tank Dell, WR: OUT
5. Jaylin Smith, CB: IR

NFL Predictions for Thursday, November 20, Week 12: Dolphins vs Bills

NFL Player Prop Bets Tonight: Josh Allen

2025-2026 Season Stats

GP: 10  | CMP: 204 | ATT: 293 | CMP %: 69.6 % | Pass Yards: 2,456 | AVG: 8.4 | Pass TD: 18 | INT: 7 | Rush Yards: 351 | Rush TD: 10 | Pass Long: 54 | Rush Long: 40

• OVER 39.5 Rushing Yards (+142 FanDuel)

My first best bet for tonight, I placed one unit on Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen to record over 39.5 rushing yards against the Texans.

I'm on an Allen kick today. First, I have him to score a touchdown.  Now, I have to run over yards for plus money? That sounds like a steal to me!

Allen is one of the most elite quarterbacks in the NFL and one of the best rushers. Ranked No. 4 in rush EPA, No. 10 in scramble percentage (5.83 %), and No.2 in rush yards (351), here's why I love this play tonight.

Is Josh Allen An MVP Candidate?

As mentioned in my previous article, Houston boasts the top defense in the NFL.  Not only do they rank No.1 in defensive DVOA, but they are also first in defensive passing DVOA! With that, they give up just 190 passing yards to opposing quarterbacks!

Starting with Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr., the Texans' defensive line is scary, and one I believe will heckle Allen all night. Not only is this a defense that ranks third in success rate, but it is also first in defensive dropback EPA. In other words, Josh Allen will have to scramble. He already faces the sixth-highest sack rate, so don't be surprised if the defense is after him all night.

I know Allen is coming off 317 passing yards and has over 600 in the last two games. In that span, he's also collected 71 rushing yards. In 10 games, he's rushed over 39.5 rushing yards four times.

Final Bills vs Texans NFL betting prediction: Josh Allen OVER 39.5 Rushing Yards (+142 FanDuel)

Overall, running back James Cook has been mostly contained in the last two outings. It's no joke when I say the Texans allow the fourth-fewest passing yards to quarterbacks. In fact, they haven't allowed a quarterback to throw for over 2oo+ yards since Sam Darnold one month ago. Since, Box Nix, Trevor Lawrence, and Cam Ward have each been held under 200 passing yards.

• While it's not 40, each of those three quarterbacks has tallied 30+ rushing yards over the last three weeks. For plus money, I'm taking Josh Allen to record over 39.5 rushing yards Thursday night. 

NFL Player Prop Bets Tonight: Woody Marks

2025-2026 Season Stats

GP: 10  | Carries: 99 | Rushing Yards: 348 | Avg Rushing: 3.5 | Rush TD: 2 | Rec TD: 2 | Rush Long: 23 | First Down: 17 | Receiving yards: 190 | Receiving TD: 2 | Receiving long: 50

• OVER 62.5 Rushing Yards (-112 FanDuel)

My second-best bet for tonight, I placed one unit on Houston Texans running back Woody Marks to record over 62.5 rushing yards against the Buffalo Bills.

Similar to Josh Allen, I have Marks to score a touchdown and to crush this player prop tonight.  Marks is the clear No.1 running back ahead of Nick Chubb and has tallied 348 rushing yards on the season. Although he's putting up just 3.5 yards per carry, Marks has put up some decent performances.

Why Woody Marks Can Feast Against the Bills Thursday

Although he's yet to crack 100+ rush yards, we've seen him record 69, 62, and 63 rushing yards against the Titans, 49ers, and Jaguars. Leading all Texans running backs in snap counts, he now has 32 carries over the last two games! Marks isn't the type of running back that's going to break tackles left and right, but here's why he has a chance to feast tonight.

Let's face it—the Bills have an extremely porous defense that allows the second-most rushing yards per game (153). In fact, they allow the second-most rushing yards to running backs, and this has been evident in recent weeks! Sean Tucker and De'Von Achane recently demolished the Bills' defense with 100+ rush yards each over the last two weeks.

With that, Bijan Robinson (Falcons) and Derrick Henry (Ravens) exploded for 170 and 169 rushing yards against Buffalo this season.

• I'm taking Woody Marks to record over 62.5 rushing yards tonight. Given the Bills' rank No. 11 in defensive pass DVOA, DeMeco Ryans may turn to Marks instead of Davis Mills and a heavy passing game

NFL Player Prop Bets Tonight: Ka'imi Fairbairn

2025-2026 Season Stats

GP: 2  | CMP: 47 | Attempts: 71 | CMP: 66.2 % | Passing Yards: 542| Passing TD: 2 | Pass Long: 51 | Rushing Yards: 89 | Rushing TD: 2

• OVER 6.5 Kicking Points (-144 FanDuel)

My third-best bet for today, I placed one unit on Ka'imi Fairbairn to record over 6.5 kicking points against the Bills.

Fairbairn is one of the best kickers in the NFL behind Cameron Dicker and has made 22 field goals so far this season!  Not to mention, he has 25 attempts on the year.

The Bills' defense isn't perfect and has shown it's vulnerable at times. Ranking No. 19 in defensive DVOA, they are fairly decent against the pass. Without Stroud in the game, I'm expecting some field goals and more tonight.

Coming off a 5-6 field goal performance against the Broncos, Fairbairn has soared over this prop in all but just one game this season! With the Texans this season, he's averaging 2.7 field goals made on 3.1 attempts, along with 1.5 extra point attempts.

Overall, he's made 22 of 25 kicks this season, only missing three on the year. And to add to my point, he put up 11 points when the Texans faced the Bills in October 2024.

Final Bills vs Texans NFL betting prediction: Ka'imi Fairbairn OVER 6.5 Kicking Points (-144 FanDuel)

Last week, Chase McLaughlin went 2-2 from the field and 2-2 in extra points. If the Texans can get down the field with Mills, I'm all for this, he's crushed this line all year line.

• I'm taking Ka'imi Fairbairn to record over 6.5 kicking points tonight. Back in action after missing the last two games, his longest kick is 57 yards this year. 5-8 from 50+ plus, I'm confident either Mills or Woody Marks can get Houston up the field. After all, the Bills have given up back-to-back 30+ points to the Buccaneers and Dolphins.