NFL Best Bets For Tonight's MNF(October 6): Chiefs vs Jaguars Betting Odds & Player Prop Bets

NFL week 5 is here, and Monday Night Football is back!

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Tonight, Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1, 2-0 home) will host Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs (2-2, 1-1 away).

Their first meeting since 2023, both teams will square off in Duval County. After starting 0-2 on the season, the Chiefs have rebounded with massive victories over the New York Giants and Baltimore Ravens. Defeating the Ravens 37-20 in week 3, it was the Chiefs who covered the 2.5-point spread as underdogs.

Led by Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs quarterback threw for four touchdowns and 270 passing yards. Connecting with nine different receivers, it was Xavier Worthy who led all receivers with 83 yards on five receptions.

The Jaguars are off to a 3-1 start under new head coach Liam Coen and are riding a two-game winning streak against the Houston Texans and San Francisco 49ers.

Patrick Mahomes Has a 9-3 Monday Night Football Record

Earning a 26-21 road victory over the 49ers, the Jaguars covered the 3.5-point spread as underdogs. We all remember Jacksonville's 87-yard punt return for a touchdown. It was running back Travie Etienne Jr. who led the team with 124 rushing yards and one touchdown.

The Chiefs' offense is finally starting to click, and both teams' defense is among the best in the NFL. 8-2 against the Jaguars since 2007, Mahomes threw for 305 yards and two touchdowns in the Chiefs' 17-9 victory over Jacksonville in September 2023.

+160 moneyline underdogs Monday, the Jaguars have a blended running committee, but have yet to get Travis Hunter and Brian Thomas Jr. fully going in the passing game. For the Chiefs, Xavier Worthy is listed as questionable (ankle), but is expected to lace up. In Jacksonville, defensive end Travon Walker is listed as questionable.

Odds Are Current As Of October 6 AT 10 A.M. ET

If you're betting on the NFL and Monday Night Football, welcome in!

A primetime matchup featuring the Chiefs and Jaguars, kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET, and tonight's showdown will air on ABC.

Located in Jacksonville, Florida, the winds are predicted at 12.8 mph at the start of the game. It's the first time the Jaguars have hosted the Chiefs since 2023.

I have a 65-41 NFL betting record this season, and I am up over eight units through September and October. Be sure to follow all of my bets on Ballislife.com, the Ballislife Bets Discord, and the Pikkit App.

In this article, you will find a mix of player prop picks, including top quarterbacks, wide receivers, and running backs.  I placed all of my bets as separate picks within DraftKings and FanDuel Sportsbook.

Here are my three best bets, player prop picks, and predictions for the Monday, October 6 NFL matchup featuring the Kansas City Chiefs and Jacksonville Jaguars.

Are you in search of further NFL and sports betting promotions? We have compiled a list of the best sports betting offers here. 

NFL WEEK 5 BETS: Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars FanDuel Odds For October 3

MONEYLINE

• KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: -190
• JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: +160

SPREAD

• KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: -3.5 (-104)
• JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: +3.5 (-118)

OVER/UNDER (TOTAL)

• OVER: 45.5 (-110)
• UNDER: 45.5 (-110)

BEST ODDS FOR KANSAS CITY CHIEFS VS JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

• FanDuel has the best odds, favoring the Kansas City Chiefs by 3.5 points (-104).
• The Jacksonville Jaguars are undefeated at home.  BetMGM offers the best odds at -110, tabbing the Jaguars as +3.5-point spread underdogs.
• DraftKings and BetMGM currently offer the best odds for the game totals. DraftKings Sportsbook offers the best value for the under (45.5) at -108, while BetMGM offers the best value for the over (45.5) at -110 odds.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars Injury Report

CHIEFS

1. Xavier Worthy, WR: Questionable
2. Omar Norman-Lott, DT: Questionable
3. Kristian Fulton, CB: Questionable
4. Ethan Driskell, RG: OUT
5. Rashee Rice, WR: Suspended

JAGUARS

1. Travon Walker, DE: Questionable
2. Wyatt Milum, LG: Questionable
3. Yasir Abdullah, LB: OUT
4. Cooper Hodges, LG: OUT

NFL Predictions for Monday, October 6 Week 5: Chiefs vs Jaguars

NFL Player Prop Bets Tonight: Patrick Mahomes

2025-2026 Season Stats

GP: 4  | CMP: 87 | Attempts: 142 | CMP: 61.3 % | Passing Yards: 939 | Passing TD: 7 | Pass Long: 49 | Rushing Yards: 130 | Rushing TD: 2

• OVER 35.5 Passing Attempts (-139 DraftKings)

My first best bet for Monday, I placed one unit on Kansas City Chiefs Quarterback Patrick Mahomes to record over 35.5 passing attempts Monday vs the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Surprisingly, the Chiefs have put up the eighth-fewest amount of passing yards (887) through four weeks. On top of that, Mahomes ranks outside the top 15 in total passing attempts in the 2025 season (142).

If we look at the numbers, the Chiefs' offense has been firing on all cylinders over the last two weeks. Scoring a total of 59 points against the Giants and Ravens, Mahomes has thrown for nearly 500 yards over this span.

Naturally, the Chiefs run pass plays 67.9 percent of the time, compared to run plays (32.1 percent). There's no doubt that Mahomes is going to throw the ball here, and I have a logical explanation.

Is Patrick Mahomes Still The Best Quarterback In The NFL?

Since November 2022, Mahomes has thrown for 331 and 305 yards in two of the three last matchups with Jacksonville. He's historically performed very well against the Jaguars, although this is a revamped team.

The Jaguars signed Eric Murray, Dennis Gardeck, and Jourdan Lewis in the offseason. Not to mention, they drafted two-way star Hunter Travis. While the Jaguars remain one of the better defensive teams in the NFL, edge rusher Travon Walker is questionable! That would make Mahomes' life so much easier, wouldn't it?

It's clear the Chiefs have evolved as a pass-heavy team, and I expect this, especially if wideout Xavier Worthy can suit up. With back-to-back 37 pass attempts, Mahomes has 37+ attempts in three of four games this season. Given the Jaguars allow the third fewest rushing yards in the NFL (82.8), I can see Mahomes having a big night.

While I veered away from passing yards, the Jaguars allow the 23rd most yards through the air this season. Not to mention, Brock Purdy (49ers) and C.J. Stroud (38) are coming off 38 passing attempts each. Even Panthers quarterback Bryce Young finished with 35 attempts in week 1.

Final Chiefs vs Jaguars NFL betting prediction: Patrick Mahomes OVER 35.5 Passing Attempts (-139 DraftKings)

If Worthy is ready to roll, Mahomes will have several receivers available tonight. While Travis Kelce highlights the team, Hollywood Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster are other adequate receiving options. Instead of one star, Mahomes has a ton of receiving options, which makes him dangerous.

• I'm taking Patrick Mahomes to record over 35.5 passing attempts today. Although Jacksonville ranks No.2 in success rate, I can't fade Mahomes here. 

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NFL Player Prop Bets Tonight: Travis Etienne Jr.

2025-2026 Season Stats

GP: 2 | Carries: 65 | Rush Yards: 394 | Rush Avg.: 6.1 | Rush TD: 2 | Rush long: 71 |REC: 6 | Targets: 10 | Receiving Yards: 32 | Rec Avg.: 5.3 | Receiving TD: 1 | Receiving long: 11

• OVER 59.5 Rushing Yards (-159 DraftKings)

My second-best bet for today, I placed one unit on Jacksonville Jaguars running back Travis Etienne Jr. to record over 59.5 rushing yards Monday against the Chiefs.

The Jaguars appear to be deploying a running back committee, including Etienne Jr., Bhayshul Tuten, and LeQuint Allen Jr. However, it's Etienne Jr. who played 60 percent of snaps in Week 4 and has lined up for 60+ percent of snaps in three of the four weeks.

Tuten played just 24 percent of snaps in week 4, while Allen Jr. played 18 percent. It's clear from a betting perspective that Etienne Jr. is the No.1 back.

Fifth in total NFL rushing yards (394), Etienne is averaging a career-high 6.1 yards per carry and is coming off 124 rushing yards and 19 carries against the 49ers. Mind you, he ran for 143 yards on 16 carries in week 1 against the Carolina Panthers.

Why Travis Etienne Jr. Can Soar Over This Player Prop Line Monday

I love this matchup tonight, especially since the Chiefs' defense against the run has been horrid. Not only do they give up 127 yards on the ground, but Kansas City also gives up 94.5 rushing yards to backs this season. In addition, they rank dead last in rush EPA, and gave up 72 rushing yards to Ravens RB2 Justice Hill. In week 2, Eagles star Saquon Barkley torched the Chiefs for 88 yards in a Super Bowl rematch.

Aside from Chris Jones and George Karlaftis, I don't trust the Chiefs' defensive line. We are talking about a Jaguars team that runs 41.6 percent of plays, and they average the fourth most rushing yards in the NFL (144.4).

Final Chiefs vs Jaguars NFL betting prediction: Travis Etienne Jr. OVER 59.5 Rushing Yards (-159 DraftKings)

The Jaguars' workhorse, Etienne, has 65 carries through four weeks, and rushed for the longest of 71 yards in week 1.  Tied with Rico Dowdle for the most 40+ runs, he ranks among the top five with three 20+ yard runs.

• I'm taking Travis Etienne Jr. to record over 59.5 rushing yards against the Kansas Chiefs on Monday. 

NFL Player Prop Bets Tonight: Brian Thomas Jr.

2025-2026 NFL Stats

GP: 4  | REC: 27 | Targets: 38 | Receiving Yards: 311 | Receiving TD: 3 | Receiving Long: 33 | First Down: 14

• UNDER 57.5 Receiving Yards (-114 DraftKings)

My third best bet for today, I placed one unit on Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. to record under 57.5 receiving yards Monday against the Chiefs.

I'm not sure if this is a sophomore slump issue or a coaching problem under pass game coordinator Shane Waldron, but Thomas Jr. has underperformed so far.

A star out of LSU, Thomas Jr. put up 1,282 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns in his rookie season. Through four weeks in 2025, he's recorded an underwhelming 164 receiving yards on 32 targets.

While his yards per reception (13.7) is solid, the production hasn't been there. Jacksonville primarily focused on the run game last week, and tight end Brenton Strange has emerged as the team's top receiver with 182 yards.

Thomas Jr. does lead the team in targets (32), but falls far behind in receptions (12). Logging 79 percent of snaps in week 4, it was Parker Washington who led the Jaguars with 85 percent of snaps played.

Tallying 164 receiving yards and 32 targets through four weeks is extremely uncharacteristic for Thomas Jr. Failing to eclipse 100+ receiving yards, the most he's recorded is 55 yards against the Texans in week 3.

Final Chiefs vs Jaguars NFL betting prediction: Brian Thomas Jr. UNDER 57.5 Receiving Yards (-114 DraftKings)

Perhaps this is his breakout game; however, the Chiefs' defense allows the fewest receiving yards to wide receivers. Soaring under in four straight games, Thomas gets a Kansas City team that allowed receivers to soar over this prop line in two of four games. (WR1s).

• I'm taking Brian Thomas Jr. to record under 57.5 receiving yards tonight. The Chiefs haven't given up 100+ yards to a receiver all season long, and the Jaguars barely put up over 200 yards per game (204). Although the Chiefs ranked No. 23 in success rate, they do have strong corners in Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson.