NFL Best Bets For Tonight's TNF (September 18): Dolphins vs Bills Betting Odds & Player Prop Bets

NFL Week 3 has arrived, and there's a highly anticipated AFC East divisional matchup tonight! Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills (2-0, 1-0 home) will host Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins (0-2, 0-1 away) Thursday night.

(Photo by Bryan M. Bennett/Getty Images)

Favored by 11.5 points on the spread, the Bills are undefeated on the season with victories over the Baltimore Ravens and New York Jets. Defeating the Ravens 41-40 in a barnburner season opener, the Bills took care of business in week 2 against New York.

Defeating the Jets 30-10, the Bills offense was firing on all cylinders, thanks to James Cook's 132 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Although Jets quarterback Justin Fields suffered a concussion, New York couldn't move past the Bills' defense. Not only did Buffalo hold New York to 83 total passing yards, the Jets tallied just 154 total yards of offense.

Tonight, the Bills get a Dolphins team that's yet to find the win column this season.  With losses to the Patriots and Colts, and Dolphins have been outscored by 31 points through the first two weeks. While their defense is one of the weakest in the NFL, they get a division rival tonight.

AFC East Divisional Matchup: Dolphins vs Bills

6-0 against the Dolphins in their last six head-to-head matchups, the Bills own a 9-1 record against Miami over the last 10 meetings.

Although the Bills will be without defensive stars Matt Milano and Ed Oliver, the books are anticipating the Bills to win by a landslide. For Miami, Chop Robinson and Benito Jones are questionable on the defensive side. Plus, Ifeatu Melifonwu and Storm Duck are out for tonight's game.

On the offensive end, Jaylen Waddle is questionable to play, leaving the passing game in doubt aside from Tyreek Hill.

The Bills have the second best odds (+550) to win Super Bowl LX, while the Dolphins have the seventh worst odds (+22500) to hold up the Lombardi Trophy.

Odds Are Current As Of September 18 AT 10 A.M. ET

If you're looking to bet on the NFL, and Thursday Night Football (TNF), welcome!

Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET, and tonight's matchup will air on Amazon Prime Video. The forecast predicts light winds at 4.7 mph winds in Buffalo.

With a 35-18 NFL betting record, I am up over 10 units on the 2025 season! Be sure to follow all my bets in the Ballislife Bets Discord, articles, and the Pikkit app.

In this article, you will find a mix of player prop bets including top quarterbacks, running backs, and more! Keeping my bank roll management in mind, I placed my bets as straight picks within DraftKings and FanDuel Sportsbook.

Let's take a deeper look at my three best bets, player prop picks, and predictions for the Thursday, September 18 NFL matchup featuring the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills!

Are you in search of further NFL and sports betting promotions? We have compiled a list of the best sports betting offers here. 

NFL WEEK 3 BETS: Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills FanDuel Odds For September 18

MONEYLINE

• MIAMI DOLPHINS: +610
• BUFFALO BILLS: -900

SPREAD

• MIAMI DOLPHINS: +11.5 (-105)
• BUFFALO BILLS: -11.5 (-115)

OVER/UNDER (TOTAL)

• OVER: 49.5 (-118)
• UNDER: 49.5 (-104)

BEST ODDS FOR MIAMI DOLPHINS VS BUFFALO BILLS

• FanDuel has the best odds, favoring the Buffalo Bills by 11.5 points (-115)
• The Miami Dolphins will head on the road for the second time this NFL season.  BetMGM offers the best odds at -105, tabbing the Dolphins as +11.5- point underdogs.
• Caesars and FanDuel Sportsbook currently offer the best odds for the game totals. Caesars offers the best value for the under (50) at -110, while FanDuel offers the best value for the over (49.5) at -112 odds.

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills Injury Report

DOLPHINS

1. Storm Duck, CB: OUT
2. Benito Jones, DT: Questionable
3. Ifeatu Melifonwu, S: OUT
4. Chop Robinson, DE: Questionable
5. Jaylen Waddle, WR: Questionable
6. Darren Waller, TE: OUT

BILLS

1. Taron Johnson, NB: Questionable
2. Matt Milano, LB: OUT
3. Ed Oliver, DT: OUT
4. Shaq Thompson, LB: Questionable

NFL Predictions for Thursday, September 18 Week 3: Dolphins vs Bills

NFL Player Prop Bets Tonight: Josh Allen

2025-2026 Season Stats

GP: 2  | CMP: 47 | Attempts: 71 | CMP: 66.2 % | Passing Yards: 542| Passing TD: 2 | Pass Long: 51 | Rushing Yards: 89 | Rushing TD: 2

• OVER 24.5 Rushing Yards (-157 DraftKings)

My first best bet for today, I placed one unit on Buffalo Bills start quarterback Josh Allen to record over 24.5 rushing yards against the Miami Dolphins.

Considered of the premier rushing quarterbacks in the NFL, Allen is off to a strong start to the season. Tallying 30 and 59 rushing yards against the Ravens and Jets, he's soared well over this player prop line twice.

Mind you, in the Bills' 30-10 victory over the Jets, Allen rushed for 59 yards, while Cook added 132 on the ground. While Cook should continue to take pressure of of Allen in the run game, I still feel great about this prop. Here's why.

There's no doubt Allen rushed over this prop just once in the last five head-to-head matchups against Miami, recording 67 rushing yards in January 2024.

Is Josh Allen The Best NFL Quarterback?

This season, the Dolphins are a bottom tier defense that's allowed 28.5 rushing yards to quarterbacks this season. Giving up two straight 33-points to New England and Indianapolis, Drake Maye and Daniel Jones each rushed for 25+ yards.

With the Dolphins' defense tallying just four sacks in two games, I'm not saying the pass rush is great. Miami ranks No. 17 in sack rush SR, so they aren't dead last. However, if anyone can escape pressure and utilize his legs to move the chains, it's Josh Allen.

Allen didn't have to throw much against the Jets, tallying just 148 passing yards. This could play out similar against the Dolphins, who allow 33 points per game, and and eighth most rushing yards per game (139).

Overall, this is a Dolphins' team that allows 8.5 rushing attempts to quarterbacks, and Josh Allen is averaging a career-high 10 rushing attempts per game this season. With 14 and six rushing attempts, Allen put up 9.8 average yards per rush last week alone!

Final Dolphins vs Bills NFL betting prediction: Josh Allen OVER 24.5 Rushing Yards (-157 DraftKings)

The odds may be a bit juiced, and Allen has backs in Ray Davis and James Cook. However, Allen has rushed for 89 yards through two games, and he's backed by an offense that ranks No. 1 in EPA/play. Compare that to a Dolphins defense that ranks dead last in EPA/play.

• I'm taking Josh Allen to record over 24.5 rushing yards tonight. Dating back to last season, Allen has averaged 38.8 rushing yards over the last five games. 

NFL Player Prop Bets Tonight: James Cook

2025-2026 Season Stats

GP: 2 | Carries: 34 | Rush Yards: 176 | Rush Avg.: 5.2 | Rush TD: 3 | Rush long: 44 |REC: 6 | Targets: 6 | Receiving Yards: 61 | Rec Avg.: 10.2 | Receiving TD: 0 | Receiving long: 51

• OVER 9.5 Longest Reception (-110 DraftKings)

My second best bet for today, I'm taking Buffalo Bills running back James Cook to record over a 9.5 longest reception against the Buffalo Bills.

Cook is having another stellar year, ranking No. 4 in rushing yards (172) through two weeks. Cracking top ten in running back receiving yards (61), Cook is averaging a solid 10.2 receiving yards per game.

Considered one of the most elite backs in the game, there's no question Cook is a special talent in the backfield. Allen's fifth leading receiver behind Keon Coleman, Josh Palmer, Dalton Kincaid, and Khalil Shakir, Cook holds the longest reception at 51 yards (vs the Ravens).

Why James Cook Can Soar Over This Player Prop Tonight

Although tallying just three receiving yards against the Jets in week 2, Cook should have another monstrous performance tonight. The Dolphins allow the third most receiving yards to running backs (73), which we saw with Jonathan Taylor (27 receiving yards), and Rhamondre Stevenson. In fact, Stevenson led the Patriots' entire receiving core with 88 yards last week!

Given the Dolphins rank No. 19 in rush EPA, I truly don't trust their defensive line. Plus, several lineman are questionable to suit up tonight, including Chop Robinson and Benito Jones.

Cooks' 51 yard reception against the Ravens in Week 1 was a career-high, and I expect him to roll tonight since the Dolphins allow the second most receiving yards to backs. Cook is the clear lead back, who led the Bills with 56 percent of snaps in week 1, and 47 percent in week 2. However, don't be surprised if Ray Davis and Ty Johnson get some looks tonight.  Since the Bills deploy a multiple tight end system, this offense continues to thrive, and the extra body helps with blocking.

Final Dolphins vs Bills NFL betting prediction: James Cook OVER 9.5 Longest Reception (-110 DraftKings)

• I'm taking James Cook to record over a 9.5 longest reception. Expecting plenty of offense, this may be his best matchup of the season.

NFL Player Prop Bets Tonight: De'Von Achane

GP: 2 | Carries: 18| Rush Yards: 85 | Rush Avg.: 4.7 | Rush TD: 0 | Rush long: 26 |REC: 11 | Targets: 14 | Receiving Yards: 112 | Rec Avg.: 10.2 | Receiving TD: 2 | Receiving long: 39

• OVER 97.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-114 FanDuel)

My third best bet for today, I placed one unit on Miami Dolphins running back De'Von Achane to record over 97.5 rushing and receiving yards against the Buffalo Bills.

Yes, Achane is the Dolphins clear No. 1 back, he played 73 percent of the snaps in week 1, and 93 percent of snaps in week 2 against the Patriots. Considered one of the most elite backs when healthy, he's arguably a top receiving back in the NFL.

In fact, Achane is the Dolphins second leading receiving next to Tyreek Hill. With Nick Westbook-Ikhine and Malik Washington, this is a rather weak receiving core. If Jaylen Waddle is unable to play, I like this player prop even more.

Can The Achane, Dolphins Bounce Back Against The Billls?

It's hard to 100 percent trust the Bills defense, who gave up 40 points to the Ravens in week 1. Not only are they missing a key parts of their defensive line in Matt Milano and Ed Oliver, Taron Johnson is questionable to suit up.

Limiting Tyrod Taylor and Justin Fields to 54 passing yards, they did allow 100 rushing yards on the ground to Fields, Taylor, and Breece Hall. Putting up just eight points in week 1, Achane tallied just 30 rushing yards against the Patriots, yet recorded 92 receiving yards. In a crazy ending, the Dolphins couldn't come up with the victory. However, Tua and Achane connected for a team-high eight receptions.

Overall, the Dolphins have the No. 24 ranked offense, and and No. 29 rush offense. There is a plus in this matchup—The Bills rank No. 26 in rush EPA, allowing 100 rushing yards and 15.5 receiving yards to running backs. If anything, Achane should find success running the ball given the Bills have injuries, and allow the eighth most rushing yards to opposing backs.

Final Dolphins vs Bills NFL betting prediction: De'Von Achane OVER 97.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-114 FanDuel)

Achane could have had the go ahead touchdown last week, but stepped out of bounds against the Patriots late in the fourth quarter. He's one of Tua's top targets, and leading workhorse running back.

• I'm taking De'Von Achane to record over 97.5 rush and receiving yards. There's trouble in Miami, but Achane has not been one of them. One of the fewest bright spots on the team, expect him to potentially have a massive night. Dating back to 2023, Achane has cleared this prop line in three of four matchups against Buffalo, averaging 116.5 R+R yards.