NFL Best Bets For Tonight's TNF (December 11): Falcons vs Buccaneers Betting Odds & Player Prop Bets

Another Thursday night football matchup is here, and Amazon Prime's showdown tonight features NFC Division rivals the Falcons and Buccaneers.

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Thursday night, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6, 3-3 home) will host the Atlanta Falcons (4-9, 2-5 away) in the Big Guava.

5.5-point favorites, this is a must-win for Tampa, which leads the NFC South Division alongside Bryce Young and the Carolina Panthers. With three weeks remaining, every game counts, and the Buccaneers are the current favorites (-300) to win the division. With a 4-9 record, the Falcons have been eliminated from playoff contention.

RELATED: FALCONS VS. BUCCANEERS TOUCHDOWN PREDICTIONS & BETTING ODDS

With a 2-1 division record, the Buccaneers defeated the Falcons 23-20 on opening day, and both teams have endured tumultuous times, including injuries. The Buccaneers are expected to get their top receiver, Mike Evans, back, while Kirk Cousins will continue to lead at quarterback with Michael Penix Jr. out with an ACL tear.

NFC South Matchup: Will the Buccaneers Win the Division?

It's been a disappointing season for the Falcons, who boosted their defense in the offseason and nailed the NFL draft with defensive juggernauts James Pearce Jr. and Jalon Waker. Middle of the road on both sides of the football, they've dropped two straight and seven of eight games. In fact, their only win in eight games came against division rival New Orleans Saints.

The Buccaneers offense has looked disheveled at times, and even Baker Mayfield isn't at full strength. I will say, a healthy Chris Godwin Jr., Mike Evans, and Jalen McMillan should considerably boost the offense.

While the Buccaneers are the overwhelming favorites to win the division, they are long shots (+1600) to win the NFC and Super Bowl LX (+3500). With injuries and such, they've dropped four of the last five games.

The question remains: Can the Falcons survive without their top receiver, Drake London? Kirk Cousins gets his fourth straight start tonight and threw for 509 passing yards against Tampa Bay last season. Can they upset the Buccaneers with a banged-up defense? While Tampa gets its receiving corps back, it has several injury marks on both sides of the ball.

Odds Are Current As Of December 11 AT 1 P.M. ET

If you are looking to bet on the Falcons vs. Buccaneers game, welcome!

Kick off between these two division rivals is at 8:15 p.m. ET, and the matchup will air on Amazon Prime. Located at Raymond James Stadium, the weather forecast predicts mild weather at 58 degrees with wind gusts of 7 mph at the start.

In this article, you will find my three best bets, player props, and predictions for the Thursday, Dec. 11, NFL matchup featuring the Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Tonight's prop bets will include popular running backs and spread picks, where I've placed within DraftKings Sportsbook.

Are you in search of further NFL and sports betting promotions? We have compiled a list of the best sports betting offers here. 

NFL WEEK 15 BETS: Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers FanDuel Odds For December 11

MONEYLINE

• ATLANTA FALCONS: +220
• TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: -270

SPREAD

• ATLANTA FALCONS: +5.5 (-108)
• TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: -5.5 (-112)

 OVER/UNDER (TOTAL)

• OVER: 43.5 (-105)
• UNDER: 43.5 (-115)

BEST ODDS FOR ATLANTA FALCONS VS TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

• BetMGM has the best odds, favoring the Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 5.5 points (-105)
• The Atlanta Falcons will get their eighth game on the road this NFL season.  BetMGM offers the best odds at -105, tabbing the Falcons as 5.5-point spread underdogs.
• FanDuel and BetMGM currently offer the best odds for the game totals. BetMGM offers the best value for the under (44) at -110, while FanDuel offers the best value for the over (43.5) at -105 odds.

 Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Injury Report

FALCONS

1. Drake London, WR: OUT
2. Malik Verdon, FS: OUT
3. Kyle Pitts Sr., TE: QUESTIONABLE
4. Jalon Walker, LB: QUESTIONABLE
5. David Onyemata, DE: QUESTIONABLE

BUCCANEERS

1. SirVocea Dennis, LB: OUT
2. Tykee Smith, FD: DOUBTFUL
3. Mike Evans, WR: QUESTIONABLE
4. Jalen McMillan, WR: QUESTIONABLE
5. Cade Otton, TE: DOUBTFUL

NFL Predictions for Thursday, December 11, Week 15: Falcons vs Buccaneers

NFL Player Prop Bets Tonight: Bijan Robinson

2025-2026 Season Stats

GP: 17  | Carries: 215 | Rushing Yards: 1,081 | Avg Rushing: 5.0 | Rush TD: 5 | Rec TD: 2 | Rush Long: 81 | First Down: 48 | Receiving yards: 602 | Receiving TD: 2 | Receiving long: 24

• OVER 39.5 Receiving Yards (-111 DraftKings)

My first best bet for Thursday night, I placed one unit on Falcons running back Bijan Robinson to record over 39.5 receiving yards.

As mentioned in my previous article, Bijan is having a career year in the receiving department and has emerged as a massive part of the passing attack. With Michael Penix. Jr. or Kirk Cousins, he should be heavily involved in the passing game, especially since top wideout Drake London remains out.

Let's face it—Cousins is left with a weak receiving core of Darnell Mooney, Dylan Drummond, and David Sills V. Now with Kyle Pitts Sr. questionable, I like this player prop even more.

I fully expect Tyler Algeier to have a prominent role once again, but I expect Robinson to retain those lead-back duties. While it's Robinson who trails Algeier in red zone scoring touchdowns, Cousins performs well against the blitz, and this is where the short game could come in handy in the backfield.

Why Bijan Robinson Will Be An X-Factor Thursday Night Against the Buccaneers

Blanked by the Seahawks 37-9 last week, Robinson was barely targeted in the backfield, totaling just eight receiving yards on two receptions. In three straight weeks prior, he collected 127 receiving yards against the Panthers, Saints, and Jets, along with 11 receptions.

Although Penix Jr. was at the helm at the time, Robinson crushed the Falcons for 24 rushing yards and 100 receiving yards in week 1. The Falcons now have a ton of injuries and have majorly regressed on the defensive side of the ball. It's evident that Atlanta gives up the most receiving yards to running backs in the NFL.

Overall, we've seen running backs such as James Cook (66 receiving yards), Jahmyr Gibbs (82 receiving yards), Christian McCaffrey (57 receiving yards), and Ty Johnson (61 receiving yards), among others, have crushed this player prop line.

The Buccaneers' defense is banged up, now that SirVocea Dennis has been ruled out, and Tykee Smith is now doubtful. In his last four head-to-head matchups against the Buccaneers, Bijan has totaled 213 total receiving yards (53 per game).

Recording over 200+ passing yards just once over the last five games, I expect tonight to be a run and pass heavy night for Bijan.

Final Falcons vs Buccaneers NFL betting prediction: Bijan Robinson OVER 39.5 Receiving Yards (-111 DraftKings)

I'm confident in this prop given Robinson torched the Buccaneers once already, and he's averaging 33.8 receiving yards and over three receptions over the last four games.

Overall, Tampa Bay's run defense is strong, but we've seen vulnerability among the defensive unit.

• I'm taking Bijan Robinson to record over 39.5 receiving yards. He's soared over this bet in six games this season, and faces a Buccaneers defense that allows an average of an NFL-most 53.9 receiving yards per game to running backs. 

NFL Player Prop Bets Tonight: Rachaad White

2025-2026 Season Stats

GP: 12  | REC: 38 | Targets: 63 | Receiving Yards: 706 | AVG: 18.6 | TD: 6  | Rec. Long: 64

• OVER 18.5 Rushing Yards (-118 DraftKings)

My second-best bet for Thursday night, I placed one unit on Buccaneers running back Rachaad White to record over 18.5 rushing yards.

It's clear the Bucs are easing top running back Bucky Irving into playing time, and it's possible he will split carries with White in order to preserve health for possible playoff matchups. Not only did White and Irving split the snaps evenly last week (49 %), but Irving rushed for 55 yards on 15 carries, and White for 53 yards on 11 carries.

Will The Buccaneers Split Carries Between Rachaad White and Bucky Irving?

In my opinion, this is a must-win game for the Buccaneers, but there's no reason to blast Irving at full speed if he's not 100 % healthy. Let's not forget it wasn't too long ago that White was the top dog before Irving took over as the lead back.

This might be a free bet, given that 18.5 rushing yards isn't a lot to ask for, and he's soared over this in eight of the last nine games. We are talking about a player who's averaged 28+ rushing yards in four of the last six head-to-head matchups against the Falcons.

Luckily for White, he's re-entered the conversations since Irving has been hampered by injuries. With over 400 rushing yards on the season, he's been a complementary No.2 back in the wake of his return.

There's no question the Falcons' defense is banged-up, regressed, and they rank No. 24 in defensive rush DVOA.  Allowing the eighth most rushing yards to running backs, the defense has been shaky at times. In fact, RB2s Zach Charbonett (46 yards) and Rico Dowdle (45) soared well over this player prop.

Final Falcons vs Buccaneers NFL betting prediction: Rachaad White OVER 18.5 Rushing Yards (-118 DraftKings)

As for top running backs, Jonathan Taylor (244 rushing yards), Christian McCaffrey (129 rushing yards), and James Cook (87 rushing yards) have trampled Atlanta on the ground. Given Baker is not 100 % healthy with his shoulder, I see a big production coming on the ground tonight from Irving and White.

• I'm taking Rachaad White to record over 18.5 rushing yards tonight. He's been a consistent second back for Tampa, and faces a prime matchup with Atlanta. Loom for White to be involved as the Buccaneers continue to ease Irving into the offense. Trust me, this is a great matchup for the Buccaneers' running game—the Falcons rank No. 24 in rush EPA. 

Spread Bet Tonight: Falcons vs Buccaneers

2025-2026 Season Stats

• Atlanta Falcons +5.5 (-112 DraftKings)

My third-best bet for today, I placed one unit on the Falcons to cover the 5.5-point spread as underdogs against the Buccaneers.

This is a division game, yet a tale of two vastly different teams. The Falcons have been eliminated from the playoffs, while the Buccaneers are fighting for the NFC South crown title. It should be a blood bath between the two teams.

I initially wanted to lay the points with the Buccaneers, but division games, especially in the NFC South, have been rather close. While win/loss records differ between the teams, the Falcons are 5-7-1 ATS, and the Buccaneers are 5-8. Dropping four of the last five games, I know the Buccaneers have faced a rigorous schedule. However, there was no excuse to drop a 24-20 week 14 game against the Saints.

Why The Falcons Can Cover the Spread

Last defeating the Falcons 23-20 on opening day, both teams were much healthier.  But if we look at the trends, each of their last four head-to-head matchups has been decided by six points or less.

I know it's hard to trust this Atlanta team, which was recently dominated by the Seahawks and lost to the Jets, 27-24. For the moneyline, the Buccaneers should take this one, especially since Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Bucky Irving are all back.

In the first meeting, we saw Bijan Robinson explode for 100 receiving yards against the Buccaneers, and now they get a short week.  Plus, we are talking about a Buccaneers team that hasn't fully figured out the offense. While they hold up defensively, they rank No. 18 on offensive DVOA and No. 25 in rushing DVOA.

Aside from last week's blowout, the Falcons have kept their last four losses within six points or less. Losses to the Jets, Panthers, and Patriots all came down to three points or less. I'm not saying I believe in the Falcons' passing game— it could be another "You like that!" Kirk Cousins' game.

Final Falcons vs Buccaneers NFL betting prediction: Atlanta Falcons +5.5 (-112 DraftKings)

Baker Mayfield has his weapons back, but we have to ask ourselves, how healthy is this team? Mayfield hasn't thrown as much with a shoulder injury, but the Bucs are expected to play with urgency. Are we going to expect the Falcons to just hand the division over to them easily!?

• Not only are the Falcons 4-2 SU against the Buccaneers over the last six meetings, but 4-2 ATS against Tampa Bay since 2023. Kirk Cousins and Bijan Robinson could very well keep them in this game tonight. I'm laying the points with the Falcons.