NFL Best Bets For Tonight's MNF (December 29): Rams vs Falcons Betting Odds & Player Prop Bets

Week 17 is coming to a close, and tonight will feature the last regular-season Monday night showdown featuring the Rams and Falcons.

(Eric Thayer / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images)

Tonight's matchup will include the Los Angeles Rams (11-4, 5-3 away) and the Atlanta Falcons (6-9, 2-4 home).

Kirk Cousins and the Falcons have officially been eliminated from NFL playoff contention, but there's plenty at stake for the Rams.

With an 11-4 record, the pressure is on the Rams, who look to find their seeding in the NFC. They were eliminated from winning the NFC West after the 49ers defeated the Bears in dramatic fashion Sunday night. Plus, Sam Darnold and the Seattle Seahawks defeated Bryce Young and the Carolina Panthers on the road on Sunday.

The Rams are the current No. 5 seed in the NFC and have remaining games against the Falcons and Cardinals. Now, it's all about where they will be seeded. If LA wins tonight and next week, No. 5 will be a lock. If they lose tonight, the Rams could fall to No. 6. Does Sean McVay and company really want to face the Eagles on the road in the first round?

Monday Night Football: Los Angeles Rams vs Atlanta Falcons: What's At Stake?

Despite losing out on the NFC West, the Rams remain the favorites to win the NFC (+280) and Super Bowl LX (+490). 8-2 in their last 10 games, they get a banged-up Falcons squad that has won two straight despite playoff elimination.

Tonight's game wouldn't mean much, as the Panthers and Buccaneers are set to play for the NFC South title next Saturday. However, a win over LA would guarantee the Panthers as division winners. This division may very well be decided by an 8-9 record by any team.

Favored by 7.5 points and -360 on the moneyline tonight, the Rams have several players listed on the injury report. That includes wide receiver Davante Adams, Braden Fiske, and several members of the offensive line (Alaric Jackson, Kevin Dotson).

For the Falcons, star receiver Drake London is questionable to suit up, and cornerback Mike Hughes has been ruled out with an ankle injury.

Odds Are Current As Of December 29 AT 10 A.M. ET

If you're betting on the Rams vs. Falcons matchup, welcome!

Kickoff between the two squads is set for 8:15 p.m.at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia. A Monday night matchup in the ATL, this showdown will be broadcast on ESPN.

With the NFL season winding down, this weekend's matchups have not disappointed. Let's take a look at my three best bets, player prop picks, and predictions for the Dec. 29 MNF matchup featuring the Rams and Falcons. Placing one unit on each bet separately, my picks include Puka Nacua, Bijan Robinson, and Kirk Cousins. Stay tuned for a free bonus bet at the end.

I've placed all of my bets within Fanatics, DraftKings Sportsbook, and FanDuel Sportsbook.

Are you in search of further NFL and sports betting promotions? We have compiled a list of the best sports betting offers here. 

NFL WEEK 17 BETS: Los Angeles Rams vs Atlanta Falcons FanDuel Odds For December 29

MONEYLINE

• LA RAMS: -360
• ATLANTA FALCONS +290

SPREAD

• LA RAMS: +7.5 (-102)
• ATLANTA FALCONS: -7.5 (-120)

OVER/UNDER (TOTAL)

• OVER: 49.5 (-105)
• UNDER: 49.5 (-115)

BEST ODDS FOR LA RAMS VS ATLANTA FALCONS

• DraftKings has the best odds, favoring the LA Rams by 7.5 points (-120)
• The Atlanta Falcons will get a home game for the seventh time this NFL season.  BetMGM offers the best odds at -115, tabbing the Rams as 7.5-point underdogs.
• Caesars and BetMGM currently offer the best odds for the game totals. Caesars offers the best value for the under (49.5) at -110, while BetMGM offers the best value for the over (49.5) at -105 odds.

LA Rams vs Atlanta Falcons Injury Report

RAMS

1. Davante Adams, WR: DOUBTFUL
2. Kevin Dotson, RG: OUT
3. Alaric Jackson, LT: QUESTIONABLE
4. Braden Fiske, DE: QUESTIONABLE
5. Josh Wallace, NB: OUT

FALCONS

1. Drake London, WR: QUESTIONABLE
2. Mike Hughes, CB: OUT
3. Malik Verdon, FS: OUT
4. Troy Anderson, LB: OUT
5. Michael Penix Jr., QB: IR

NFL Predictions for Monday, December 29, Week 17: Rams vs Falcons

NFL Player Prop Bets Tonight: Puka Nacua

• Over 105.5 Receiving Yards (-125 Fanatics)
• 30+ Longest Reception (-125 Fanatics)

Tonight, I'm going with Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua to record over 105.5 receiving yards and a longest reception of 30+ yards.

Putting together a career season, Nacua is undoubtedly one of the most elite receivers, if not the top wideout, in the NFL. In his third NFL season with quarterback Matthew Stafford, he's compiled the second-most receiving yards (1,592) and eight touchdowns.

Ranking in the top five among receivers in receptions (114), yards (1,592), YAC (611), and total EPA (144), it's safe to say Nacua is elite.

Additionally, the fifth-round pick out of BYU has recorded three straight games with 167+ receiving yards, including a career-high 225 last week against Seattle.

Yes, you read that correctly. Nacua torched Seattle's stingy defense for 225 yards on 12 receptions last week. Making his case for NFL Offensive Player of the Year (+250) behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Nacua has been lights out.

Over the last three weeks, he's compiled 573 receiving yards, averaging 191 per game, along with 38 total targets and 28 receptions.  We are talking about a player who's averaging 94.6 air yards per game and hauling in nearly 29% of team targets. Am I really going to fade him here?

Is Puka Nacua And Matthew Stafford The Best Quarterback/Wide Receiver Duo In The NFL?

I know a 105.5 receiving line is steep, especially at -125 odds. However, Davante Adams is doubtful once again tonight, leaving Nacua as the sole workhorse receiver. We saw him sauce up last week for 200+ receiving yards without Adams; what will tonight bring?

It's been a tough year for the Falcons, who lost quarterback Michael Penix Jr. to injury, along with defensive studs Clark Phillips III, Mike Hughes, and Billy Bowman Jr. Despite drafting Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr., this is a middle-of-the-road defensive unit.

Ranking No. 15 in defensive DVOA, this is a Falcons squad that gives up the 12th-most receiving yards to receivers and hasn't been able to hold them in the red zone.

Over the past six weeks, we've seen Mike Evans (Buccaneers) torch the Falcons' secondary for 132 receiving yards and Tetairoa McMillan (Panthers) for 130 yards. While just shy of this player prop bet line, Smith-Njigba (Seahawks) exploded for 92 receiving yards, and Adonai Mitchell (Jets) for 102 yards.

Overall, the Falcons primarily play zone defense, and Nacua has compiled the second-most receiving yards (1,126), along with 77 receptions against the zone. Against man or zone, Nacua is elite.

Final Rams vs Falcons NFL betting prediction: Puka Nacua Over 105.5 Receiving Yards (-125 Fanatics) + 30+ Longest Reception (-125 Fanatics)

Without Adams, Stafford loses a down-the-field target, and Nacua is the next man up. Recording a longest reception of 30+ yards in five straight games, he should feast in a matchup with A.J. Terrell tonight. Not to mention, the Falcons have allowed a longest reception of 30+ yards to eight WR1s this season.

• I'm taking Puka Nacua to record over 105.5 receiving yards and a longest reception of 30+ yards. He exploded against a top-tier Seahawks' defense last week. I'm confident he'll be heavily involved tonight. While a steep like for receivers in general, it's actually low for Nacua. 

NFL Player Prop Bets Tonight: Bijan Robinson

• Over 43.5 Receiving Yards (-112 FanDuel)

This may be a corporate and popular pick, but I'm taking Falcons running back Bijan Robinson to record over 43.5 receiving yards Monday night.

Robinson has been a solid player to bet on this NFL season, and I'm not fading him tonight. This game may not have much meaning for the Falcons; however, it's fantasy football championship week for many.

Ranking in the top five among NFL running backs with 1,250 receiving yards, Robinson has reached a new career-best in receiving yards (776), targets (92), receptions (71), and yards per reception (10.9).

While Robinson has always been a dual-threat back, he's emerged as one of Kirk Cousins' favorite targets in the backfield. With Penix Jr. out for the season, Atlanta has very much stayed committed to the short pass game in the backfield.

Atlanta doesn't have the strongest receiving corps, although Drake London is a star who's been hampered by injuries. Tight end Kyle Pitts Sr. is finally back on track since being selected No.4 overall in the 2021 NFL Draft.

That leaves Robinson, who ranks third behind Pitts and London with 776 receiving yards. While no receiver has topped 1,000+ receiving yards this season, it's Robinson who sits second on the team with 71 receptions.

Why Bijan Robinson Can Soar Over This Player Prop Bet Monday

London is questionable to lace up and has been limited to just 10 games this season. While he's one of the premier wideouts in the game, it's no secret Robinson has capitalized in his absence.

In six games without London, Robinson has eclipsed 50+ receiving yards twice, averaging 34.8 yards through the air without him. And under Kirk Cousins, Robinson has been automatic in the backfield. Playing in eight games with Cousin, he's soared over this player prop line three times, averaging 46.38 receiving yards over that span.

I bet on Bijan to soar over rushing and receiving last week against the Cardinals, and he did not disappoint. Tallying 92 receiving yards on seven receptions, Robinson has recorded back-to-back 80+ reception yards over the last two weeks.

Clearing this line in three of the last four games, Robinson led the team in receiving yards. If London is unable to go, Cousins will continue to rely on both Pitts Sr. and Robinson.

We are talking about a running back that ranks third among backs in receiving yards (776), first in YAC (788), and second in target share (19.62%). Am I really going to fade a player who's been explosive, dominant, and hauling in nearly 20% of team targets? Let's not forget that Bijan is averaging 5.9 air yards per game and is targeted north of 22% of routes.

Now he gets a matchup against a stingy Rams' defense that ranks third in defensive DVOA and sixth in defensive rush DVOA. While it's a tough matchup for Robinson, the Rams do allow the eighth-most receiving yards to running backs. They are, in fact, human, given that Kenneth Walker rushed for 100 yards and 64 receiving yards against LA last week.

Final Rams vs Falcons NFL betting prediction: Bijan Robinson Over 43.5 Receiving Yards (-112 FanDuel)

Let's face it, the Rams have some injury question marks on the defensive end, but they boast the third-best pass defense in the NFL.  I'm expecting Cousins to connect with Bijan quite frequently for short throws (or long), and they've given up 64, 44, 66, and 82 receiving yards to Walker III and Christian McCaffrey (twice) this season.

• I'm taking Bijan Robinson to record over 43.5 receiving yards on Monday night. He's been targeted 22 times and has 15 receptions over the last two games. Not to mention, he played 70% of snaps last week, compared to Tyler Allgeier (40%).  It's a great spot against a Rams team that allows just under 40 receiving yards and 4.8 receptions to running backs per game. 

NFL Player Prop Bets Tonight: Kirk Cousins

• Over 0.5 Interceptions (-160 DraftKings)

My last and final bet for Monday night football (MNF), I placed one unit on Kirk Cousins to throw an interception. It's a tad juiced at -160 odds, but there's still value there.

It's been a tumultuous time for Cousins since he signed with the Falcons; however, he remains the starting quarterback since Michael Penix Jr. is out for the season.

As a starter, Cousins has compiled 1,338 passing yards, eight touchdowns, and four interceptions. With a 3-2 record under Cousins over the last five games, he's been more than a game manager. Throwing for 234 and 373 yards against the Jets and Buccaneers, Cousins is a massive reason for their two-game win streak.

Sure, Cousins may have five touchdowns over the last two games, and has connected on a serious level with both Kyle Pitts Sr. and Bijan Robinson. With 79 pass attempts over the past two games, that unfortunately comes with a cost.

With four interceptions on the season, all of them have come within the last five games, including two against an elite Seahawks defense. Now with three interceptions over the last three games, Cousins gets a tough matchup tonight.

The Rams may have injury question marks, but they boast the third-best defensive pass DVOA. Super Bowl favorites, the Rams rank among the top eight in interception percentage (2.8%) and the top six in total interceptions (15).

We saw Sam Darnold get picked off twice last week against the Rams and intercepted four times on Nov. 16. In addition, Jacoby Brissett, Mac Jones, Tyler Shough, Cooper Rush, Daniel Jones (2), and C.J Stroud have all thrown interceptions against LA this season.

Final Rams vs Falcons NFL betting prediction: Kirk Cousins Over 0.5 Interceptions (-160 DraftKings)

It's not looking great for Cousins, who has thrown all four interceptions against zone defense, and the Rams primarily deploy a zone scheme.

• I'm taking Kirk Cousins to throw an interception tonight. I'm expecting a pass-heavy game given that Cousins is averaging 35.5 pass attempts over the last four games.

Bonus Bet: Falcons +7.5