NFL Best Bets For Tonight's TNF (October 16): Steelers vs Bengals Betting Odds & Player Prop Bets

NFL week 7 has arrived, and there's a highly anticipated AFC North divisional matchup featuring the Steelers and Bengals! Thursday Night Football (TNF) is so back!

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Aaron Rodgers and the Pittsburgh Steelers (4-1, 2-0 away) will square off against Joe Flacco and the Cincinnati Bengals (2-4, 1-1 home).

The Steelers head into this matchup as leaders of a weaker AFC North divisional matchup, one that features the Bengals, Baltimore Ravens, and Cleveland Browns. With Aaron Rodgers under center as quarterback, Pittsburgh is cruising!

Fresh off a three-game winning streak, the Steelers have recent victories over the New England Patriots, Minnesota Vikings, and Cleveland Browns. Crushing the Browns 23-9 in week 6, it was a combination of kicker Chris Bowell, DK Metcalf, and Rodgers that earned them the victory.

Let's not forget the Steelers defense limited Browns quarterback Dillon Gabriel to 221 passing yards, completing 26 of 52 passing completions. Holding the run game to under 4o yards, not one Cleveland receiver topped 85+ receiving yards.

AFC North Divisional Matchup: Steelers vs Bengals

On the flip side, the Bengals continue to struggle, dropping four straight games against the Vikings, Denver Broncos, Detroit Lions, and Green Bay Packers. Despite enduring a brutal schedule, Cincinnati remains without star quarterback Joe Burrow due to turf toe.

With a 2-4 record, the Bengals are three years removed from Super Bowl LVI, and the team sits second behind the Steelers in the AFC North. While the team has bona fide stars in Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, the team recently switched out Jake Browning for veteran Joe Flacco. In the October 12 27, 18, loss against the Packers, Flacco threw for 219 passing yards and two touchdowns.

Divisional matchups tend to be closer; however, the books are not predicting that. The Steelers are 5.5-point spread favorites on the road and have a top ten defense led by T.J. Watt and company. The question remains: Can the Bengals keep up on both sides of the ball?

This matchup has always been a fun one to bet and watch over the years. However, without Joe Burrow, it just hits different.

Currently, the Steelers have the 16th-best odds to win the Super Bowl (+3300), while the Bengals have the second-worst odds to hold up the Lombardi Trophy (+40000).

Odds Are Current As Of October 16 AT 10 A.M. ET

If you're looking to bet on the NFL and Thursday night football, welcome!

Tonight's matchup between the Steelers and Bengals will kick off at 8:15 p.m. ET and will be broadcast on Amazon Prime Video. Set to take place at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio, the weather predicts mostly clear skies and 7 mph wind gusts at kickoff.

In this article, you will find a mix of player prop bets that include top quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers. It's important to note that I placed all my bets as separate picks within DraftKings and FanDuel Sportsbook.

Here are my three best bets, player prop picks, and predictions for the Thursday, October 16, NFL matchup featuring the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals.

Are you in search of further NFL and sports betting promotions? We have compiled a list of the best sports betting offers here. 

NFL WEEK 7 BETS: Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals FanDuel Odds For October 16

MONEYLINE

• PITTSBURGH STEELERS: -255
• CINCINNATI BENGALS: +210

SPREAD

• PITTSBURGH STEELERS: -5.5 (-108)
• CINCINNATI BENGALS: +5.5 (-112)

OVER/UNDER (TOTAL)

• OVER: 44.5 (-106)
• UNDER: 44.5 (-114)

BEST ODDS FOR PITTSBURGH STEELERS VS CINCINNATI BENGALS

• BetMGM has the best odds, favoring the Pittsburgh Steelers by 5.5 points (-105)
• The Cincinnati Bengals will get a third home matchup this NFL season.  BetMGM offers the best odds at -105, tabbing the Bengals +5.5- point underdogs.
• Caesars and BetMGM currently offer the best odds for the game totals. Caesars offers the best value for the under (44.5) at -110, while BetMGM offers the best value for the over (44) at -110 odds.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals Injury Report

STEELERS

1. Calvin Austin III, WR: OUT
2. DeShon Elliot, S: Questionable
3. Miles Killebrew, S: OUT
4. Will Howard, QB: IR
5. Donte Kent, NB: IR

BENGALS

1. Trey Hendrickson, DE: Questionable
2. Charlie Jones, WR: Questionable
3. Tanner Hudson, TE: OUT
4. Joe Burrow, QB: IR
5. Lucas Patrick, RG: IR

NFL Predictions for Thursday, October 16, Week 7: Steelers vs Bengals

NFL Player Prop Bets Tonight: Aaron Rodgers

2025-2026 Season Stats

GP: 5  | CMP: 95 | Attempts: 138 | CMP: 68.8 % | Passing Yards: 1,021 | Passing TD: 10 | Pass Long: 80 | Rushing Yards: 12 | Rushing TD: 0

• OVER 216.5 Passing Yards (-114 FanDuel)

My first best bet for Thursday night, I placed one unit on Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers to record over 216.5 passing yards against the Cincinnati Bengals.

Let's face it, Rodgers is having a fantastic season in his first year with the Steelers. At 41 years old, he's put up 10 touchdowns and three interceptions. Through six weeks, the Steelers have a 4-1 record.

Soaring over this player prop twice, Rodgers lit up his former team, the New York Jets, for 244 passing yards in week 1. He did it again with 235 passing yards last week against the Browns. In fact, he's recorded 200+ yards in three of four weeks.

Under head coach Mike Tomlin, recent quarterbacks such as Justin Fields, Russell Wilson, and Kenny Pickett have been game managers more than anything. That's not the case with Rodgers this season. By calling pass plays 56.9 percent of the time, the Steelers have a balanced run and pass game. However, let's look at this matchup.

Can Aaron Rodgers Lead The Steelers To The Super Bowl?

Even with the re-signing of Trey Hendrickson, who's questionable, this Bengals defense is a mess. They rank No. 30 in defensive DVOA and No. 28 in defensive passing DVOA. We are talking about a Bengals squad that allows the second-most passing yards per game (258.5). Without Burrow, the offense has suffered (17.2). That leaves the defense gassed and on the field more than necessary.

Not to mention, the Bengals rank No. 29 in defensive EPA per play, and No. 30 in success rate (49.6 %). Given that Rodgers is primarily a quick pocket passer, he should feast against a Bengals defense that ranks in the bottom tiers in dropback EPA and dropback sack rate.

Now that Metcalf is donning the black and gold, Rodgers has a prime-time matchup against this team, which gives up the second-most passing yards to quarterbacks. In fact, since week 1, quarterbacks have destroyed the Bengals. Through six weeks, they average 280.8 passing yards per game. The following quarterbacks have cleared this player prop line this season:

• Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers (259 passing yards)
• Jared Goff, Detroit Lions (258 passing yards)
• Bo Nix, Denver Broncos (326 passing yards)
• Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars (271 passing yards)
• Joe Flacco, Cleveland Browns (290 passing yards)

Final Steelers vs Bengals NFL betting prediction: Aaron Rodgers OVER 216.5 Passing Yards (-114 DraftKings)

You get the point here. If Joe Flacco can throw for 290 passing yards with a thin receiving core, so can Rodgers. While Metcalf is the top receiver, don't count on Jaylen Warren, Jonnu Smith, and Darnell Washington in the passing game. Austin is out for tonight's matchup, so that does leave Rodgers with one less weapon.

• I'm taking Aaron Rodgers to throw for over 216.5 passing yards Thursday night. 

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NFL Player Prop Bets Tonight: Jaylen Warren

2025-2026 Season Stats

GP: 4 | Carries: 54 | Rush Yards: 184 | Rush Avg.: 3.4 | Rush TD: 0 | Rush long: 11 |REC: 13 | Targets: 14 | Receiving Yards: 153 | Rec Avg: 11.3 | Receiving TD: 1 | Receiving long: 65

• OVER 69.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-129 DraftKings)

For my second-best bet today, I placed one unit on Pittsburgh Steelers running back Jaylen Warren to record over 69.5 rushing and receiving yards.

It's looking like Kenneth Gainwell has emerged as the goal-line back for Mike Tomlin, and he nearly has as many rushing yards as Jaylen Warren.

Speaking of Warren, he has underperformed as a running back this year. Through four games, he's put up 184 rushing yards for an average of 46 yards on the ground per game. Rushing for a career-low 3.4 yards per carry, he's yet to rush for a touchdown. A dual threat in the back field, Warren is the more explosive back over Gainwell.

With that out of the way, let's talk about his contributions to the team as a receiver. In fact, he's Rodgers' second leading receiver behind Metcalf. While I wouldn't tab the Steelers' receiver corps as particularly strong behind DK, I expect Warren to be heavily involved tonight. This is especially since Calvin Austin is out tonight.

Why Jaylen Warren Can Feast Against the Bengals Thursday Night

Through four games, Warren has posted 153 receiving yards on 13 receptions and 14 targets. With 11.8 yards per reception, we all remember that 65-yard catch and run against the Seahawks in week 2. In that matchup, he tallied 48 rushing and 86 receiving yards alone.

I do think Warren bounces back this week, who totaled 52 rushing yards and 11 receiving against a stingy Browns defense. While Gainwell leads Pittsburgh running backs with three touchdowns, Warren outsnapped him 53 percent to 34 percent last week. In fact, Warren played 80 percent of the snaps in week 3. Overall, he leads all Steelers backs with 135 snaps.

If all goes right, Warren has one of the strongest matchups tonight. Not only do the Bengals allow the second-most rushing yards to running backs, but they also allow the third-most receiving yards to backs. While the Steelers rank No. 9 in offensive rushing DVOA, the Bengals rank No. 30 in defensive rushing DVOA.

In fact, the Bengals rank a gloomy 27th in rush EPA.

Final Steelers vs Bengals NFL betting prediction: Jaylen Warren OVER 69.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-129 DraftKings)

Since September 14, running backs have absolutely dominated this Bengals defense. Travis Etienne Jr (71), Jordan Mason (116), J.K. Dobbins (101), Jahmyr Gibbs (54), and Josh Jacobs (94) all tallied high rushing yard counts. Of those five running backs, all of them clear this player prop line for an average of 109.4 rush and receiving yards.

• I'm taking Jaylen Warren to record over 69.5 rushing and receiving yards on Thursday night. I do think the books are sleeping on this line, and I truly don't trust a weak Bengals defensive line and linebacker core. To be honest, Demetrius Knight Jr., Barrett Carter, and Logan Wilson haven't been able to stop to the run. Add that to a fragile defensive line that may be without Trey Hendrickson.

NFL Player Prop Bets Tonight: Ja'Marr Chase

2025-2026 Season Stats

GP: 6 | REC: 42 | TGTS: 57 | Receiving Yards: 468 | Avg: 11.1 | TD: 4 | Long: 64 | First Down: 21

• OVER 69.5 Receiving Yards (-138 FanDuel)

For my third-best bet today, I placed one unit on Cincinnati Bengals star wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase to record over 69.5 receiving yards tonight.

It's been a tough year for Chase, who is on his third quarterback of the year. The No. 1 fantasy football player in several drafts, Chase has a chance to turn it around with Joe Flacco at the helm.

While it's been an up-and-down year for the Bengals' receiving core, Chase has put up 468 receiving yards, which is an average of 78 receiving yards per game.

With Flacco earning his first start with the Bengals last week, Chase capped out at 94 receiving yards on 12 targets against the Packers. He now has a total of 204 receiving yards and 22 targets over the last two weeks.

There's no doubt the Bengals have a strong receiving core with Chase and Tee Higgins. Again, there's no debate: Ja'Marr Chase is the Bengals' top receiver. In fact, he leads the team in targets (57), receptions (42), and receiving yards (468).

Playing 100 percent of snaps last week, he leads the team with 327 snaps. Second is Tee Higgins with 299 snaps.

Understandably, the Bengals rank No. 28 in passing DVOA, and face a Steelers defense that ranks No. 4 in defensive passing DVOA.

Is Ja'Marr Chase The Best Wide Receiver In The NFL?

I do expect Chase to be heavily involved here, as he is one of the most explosive receivers in the NFL. Here, he faces a defense that allows the fifth most receiving yards to wideouts.

As we've seen this year, Justin Jefferson (Vikings) exploded for 126 receiving yards against Pittsburgh. It doesn't stop there— Jaxon Smith-Njigba posted 103 receiving yards, and Garrett Wilson, 95 receiving yards. So far, the Steelers have been forgiving to WR1s.

Overall, I love this spot for Chase, who's averaging 91 air yards per game, and targeted just shy of 24 percent of routes. With that said, he holds a low drop rate (1.8 percent) and is putting up 39.5 percent of the Bengals' air yards! That's pretty impressive without Joe Burrow. Poised for a matchup with Darius Slay or Jalen Ramsey, Chase has that matchup all day.

• I'm taking Ja'Marr Chase to record over 69.5 yards tonight. I do believe the books are greatly underestimating this line, especially given his history with the Steelers. Soaring over this line in four straight games against Pittsburgh, he's averaging 98 receiving yards in the span against the Steelers. 

NFL Player Prop Bets Tonight: DK Metcalf

2025-2026 Season Stats

GP: 5 | REC: 19 | TGTS: 31 | Receiving Yards: 356 | Avg: 18.7 | TD: 4 | Long: 80| First Down: 16

• OVER 24.5 Longest Reception (-120 FanDuel)

My fourth best bet for tonight, I placed one unit on Pittsburgh Steelers star wide receiver DK Metcalf to record over a 24.5 longest reception tonight.

Let's face it, DK Metcalf is one of the strongest downfield receivers in the NFL. He's known for making the big plays, and now he has a strong quarterback in Aaron Rodgers.

With Rodgers, he's on pace for 1000+ receiving yards, and is averaging a career-high 18.7 yards per reception. Soaring over this player prop line in three of five games, he recorded an 80-yard bomb from Rodgers against the Vikings in Dublin.

There's no way I'm fading Metcalk here, who last posted a longest reception of 30 yards against the Bengals in December 2023. Not to mention, he's averaging an average longest reception of 32 yards through five weeks.

Again, Metcalf has a prime matchup against a Bengals defense that has struggled to contain the deep ball all season. Ranking No. 28 in passing DVOA, the Bengals allowed Justin Jefferson (36), Parker Washington (40), and Amon-Ra St. Brown (40) to torch their secondary.

Likely to match up with DJ Turner II or Dax Hill, Metcalf is predominantly an outside receiver. Rodgers' top target, he leads all Steelers receivers with 248 snaps, and is averaging 11.7 yards after the catch!

Final Steelers vs Bengals NFL betting prediction: DK Metcalf OVER 24.5 Longest Reception (-120 DraftKings)

We are talking about a receiver who's posting 40 percent of the team's air yards and is targeted well over 21 percent of the time. In fact, he's hauling in 23 percent of the team's targets.

• I'm taking DK Metcalf to connect with Aaron Rodgers and record over a 24.5 longest reception. After all, the Bengals allow the sixth-most receiving yards to wideouts. 

Bonus Bet: Kennth Gainwell ATS (Touchdown Scorer) +195 FanDuel