NFL Best Bets: Week 2 Odds & Predictions (Sept. 20)

When I place bets on NFL games, I almost never look for markets like this week’s Baltimore Ravens moneyline (-430) or the Houston Texans moneyline (-138). Why not? Because those markets have no value; I wouldn’t win much. No, when I put my hard-earned money down on NFL games, I want to at least double my money.

That means I have to find markets where my choice has a better chance of winning than the bookmaker’s odds suggest (minimum +100 odds).

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NFL Best Bets for Week 2 (Sept. 20)

After a careful review of the teams, stats, and trends for several of the games on Week 2’s Sunday slate, I have identified three such wagers (all odds via FanDuel):

Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons

• Falcons ML (+122, FanDuel)

I watched the Bears-Panthers game in Week 1; the Carolina defense made Caleb Williams look like an MVP. Williams and Ben Johnson’s system deserve a lot of credit, of course. But facts are facts — Carolina’s defense was awful.

Last year’s unit was average (No. 15 in scoring and 16 in total yards).  This one has a handful of new starters; it often takes time for a defense to gel. Growing pains are expected. But heading into this Week 2 matchup against the Falcons, the Panthers rank last in scoring (59), last in rushing yards (291), and last in total yards (552).

Is this why I’m picking Atlanta to win outright? Yes and no.

Yes, because the Falcons should be able to feed Bijan Robinson the ball all day long with success. But that’s not the only reason — Cooper Rush. Yes, I’m serious, Cooper Rush. Well, Rush and head coach Kevin Stefanski.

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Rush did not look good last week. But that was to be expected against a solid Steelers defense when he was named the starter on Friday after Tua Tagovailoa went down with an injury Thursday. But he’ll have a full week of practice with a coach that knows a thing or two about getting quarterbacks up to speed.

Remember the Browns' 2023 season when Stefanski used five quarterbacks? Those guys won 11 games and made the playoffs. Rush was good enough to help the Cowboys go 4-1 when Dak Prescott was lost to an injury for a few weeks in 2022.

Stefanski has a week with a solid, career backup QB and great weapons like Kyle Pitts, Drake London, and Robinson. Yeah, the Dirty Birds can win this game. They definitely shouldn’t be 2.5-point dogs at home to a team that gave up 59 points last week.

Green Bay Packers vs. New York Jets

Last week, the Packers defense made Carson Wentz look like a viable starter once again (which he isn’t). With two of their top defensive linemen out with injuries (Javon Hargrave and Warren Brinson), I don’t see a reason to believe the defense will be better this week.

Is that fair to say, though? Actually — yes. The Packers have a lot of new players on defense this season, including a handful of rookies and a new defensive coordinator, Jonathon Gannon. He’s a good DC, but he’s got a young unit with a lot of new parts. It takes time to get a group like that on the same page, and it'll be harder this week with guys out.

But it’s the Jets! Right? Yeah, they beat the Tennessee Titans 23-10 last week, but that was the Titans (who are destined to have the No. 1 pick in the draft next year). That is true, and the Jets have been awful in recent years.  This squad went 3-14 last season, after all.

However, this is Aaron Glenn’s second year as head coach. He’s been able to rebuild the roster his way and has a solid OC in former Colts head coach Frank Reich. They acquired Geno Smith in the offseason as QB1 and have some great weapons for him to work with (i.e., Breece Hall, Braelon Allen, Garrett Wilson, Adonai Mitchell, etc.). Of course, they'll need the version of him fans saw in Seattle, not the Vegas version.

The Jets offense is better than a Carson Wentz-led Vikings offense. Factor in the six-game slump Jordan Love and the Packers are mired in dating back to last season, and the Jets team that beat Tennessee last week could be good enough to beat Green Bay and its injury-depleted, underperforming defense.

My Pick: Jets ML (+160, FanDuel)

I can’t shake the feeling that the Packers are a 3.5-point road favorite more because of what we expect from them and the Jets over what we’ve seen. But that’s not 100 percent accurate because the Packers ended last season on a five-game losing streak. Green Bay is not as good as it is perceived to be.

I’m not ready to say the Jets are better than we think they are. But from what we saw last week, I would have made this game a pick’em. So, yeah — I’m all over the Jets at +160.

Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys

Yes, Dak Prescott has put up some incredible numbers in the past. CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens are one of the best receiver duos in the NFL. However, the offensive line is below average (No. 24 according to PFF), the run game is non-existent (69 total yards and a touchdown on 18 carries last week), and the defense is still terrible.

It redefined “bad” in 2025, rebuilt in the offseason (eight new starters in Week 1), and has a new defensive coordinator. But the results in Week 1 were a lot like last season: they couldn’t make a stop when they needed to.

Somehow these guys are 4.5-point favorites this week.

It’s probably because we expect them to beat the Washington Commanders because they usually do. Dak Prescott is 13-2 vs. the Commanders during his career, including wins in four of the last five. Since Washington also lost in Week 1, we don’t have definitive proof this year could be different.

Ah, but we do. Washington played well enough to beat the Philadelphia Eagles last week. Jayden Daniels didn't play great, but he looked good overall in his first game back from injury. At the least, the game should have gone to overtime. But an unfortunate (and foolish) penalty cost the Commanders an extra point, forcing them to go for two to tie the game (which they missed).

My Pick: Washington ML (+168, FanDuel)

The Commanders are far from a great team, but with a healthy Daniels, the offense has life (unlike last season). They brought in a lot of new talent on both sides of the ball, along with new coordinators. Overall, both units were okay/good in Week 1 against a tough opponent.

But Dallas does not qualify as a “tough” opponent. Its offensive line is suspect. It can’t run the ball, and the defense is still terrible. Head coach Brian Schottenheimer is so focused on having a balanced offense that it has become pedestrian and lacks explosiveness.

Washington’s offense will look a lot better this week against this Dallas defense. Since the Commanders' defense kept the Eagles offense from blowing up, it should have a solid night against Dallas. But will Washington win? It is absolutely possible, but recent history against Dallas has been pretty poor.

However, based on what we saw from both teams in Week 1, the Commanders moneyline is a solid value play at +168.