Bills vs Texans Anytime Touchdown Scorer Predictions: NFL Best Bets for Thursday, November 20

NFL week 12 has arrived, and there's a highly anticipated AFC Thursday night football matchup between the Bills and Texans!

(Photo by Bryan M. Bennett/Getty Images)

The 7-3 Buffalo Bills will take on the 5-5 Houston Texans at NRG Stadium, located in Houston, Texas. With kickoff scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET, this is a crucial game for both teams.

The Bills have owned the AFC East for the past five seasons, and now they trail behind the New England Patriots for first place. Under Mike Vrabel, the Patriots haven't taken control of the division since 2019: can they do it this year, or can the Bills come back full steam? After all, Bills quarterback Josh Allen is once again an MVP candidate.

With a 5-5 record, the Texans are third in the AFC South, trailing the Indianapolis Colts and Jacksonville Jaguars. Division leader of the last two seasons, can they get it done without quarterback CJ Stroud on Thursday night?

Tonight's TNF matchup is available on Prime Video. With that said, let's take a look at my two best bets and touchdown scorer predictions for the Thursday, Nov. 20, matchup featuring the Buffalo Bills and Houston Texans. I do believe this will be a low-scoring affair, so I'm backing Josh Allen and Woody Marks to score a touchdown Thursday night.

All of my bets in this article were made separately within Fanatics Sportsbook.

Bills vs. Texans Anytime Touchdown Scorer Betting Odds (FanDuel)

• Josh Allen (-120)
• James Cook (-105)
• Woody Marks (+130)
• Nico Collins (+140)
• Khalil Shakir (+310)
• Dawson Knox (+320)
• Dalton Schultz (+320)
• Keon Coleman (+410)
• Gabe Davis (+410)
• Josh Palmer (+480)
• Nick Chubb (+550)
• Jayden Higgins (+600)
• Buffalo Defense (+850)
• Houston Defense (+1000)

NFL Week 12 Best Bets: Bills vs Texans Anytime Touchdown Scorer Predictions for Thursday, November 20

Josh Allen Anytime TD Odds: -110 (Fanatics)

2025-2026 NFL Stats

GP: 10  | CMP: 204 | ATT: 293 | CMP %: 69.6 % | Pass Yards: 2,456 | AVG: 8.4 | Pass TD: 18 | INT: 7 | Rush Yards: 351 | Rush TD: 10 | Pass Long: 54 | Rush Long: 40

My first best bet for Thursday, I placed one unit on Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen to score a touchdown against the Houston Texans.

This is not an easy feat for Allen and the Bills, as they face a Texans defense that allows the fewest points in the NFL (16.3) and ranks No. 1 in DVOA. Houston head coach DeMeco Ryans is a defensive mastermind, and this team allows just 258 yards of offense per game! If we look at the stats, Allen is averaging 245.6 passing yards ALONE over the first 10 games.

The Texans do have some injuries on the defensive side, including safety Jalen Pitre, who's been ruled out for Thursday.  In addition, safety Jimmy Ward, who has two interceptions on the season, will also miss tonight's matchup. With M.J. Stewart and Jaylin Smith placed on IR, the secondary is thin.

Is Josh Allen The Best Rushing Quarterback in the NFL?

The Texans boast one of the most elite defensive lines in the NFL—one that includes Danielle Hunter, Will Anderson Jr., Tim Settle, and Sheldon Rankins. They put up a 41.5 percent pressure rate, which means Allen will be utilizing his legs on the ground tonight. With a 38.5 % rush sack rate, this is a team that's allowed zero rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks this season.

We know Josh Allen is an anomaly.  With 10 rushing touchdowns on the year, three of them came in week 11 against Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. In a 44-32 shootout victory over Tampa, Allen was indeed the first touchdown scorer for Buffalo, and captured the game with two rushing tuddies in the fourth quarter.

While Matthew Stafford and Drake Maye lead the NFL MVP conversations, Allen continues to climb the rankings and has seven rushing touchdowns over the last four weeks! In three of those games, he's tallied 2+ rushing touchdowns against the Panthers, Chiefs, and Buccaneers.

Final NFL Anytime Touchdown Bills vs Texans Betting Prediction: Josh Allen ATS Odds: -110 (FanDuel)

Well on his way to setting career highs in rushing touchdowns, he has 22 red zone rushing attempts over the last four games! Can we talk about last week? Allen had nine red zone rush attempts alone! Inside the 20, 10, or five, he's a threat on the ground from anywhere.

• I'm taking Josh Allen to be the first quarterback to score a touchdown against the Houston Texans tonight. While the Bills have banged-up receivers and tight ends in Dalton Kincaid, Curtis Samuel, and Mecole Hardman, I do think he will struggle with the pass. Over the last four weeks, he has led the team with seven rushing touchdowns for 33 yards on nine attempts. Over that span, only Ty Johnson has been the lone touchdown scorer in the running back department. 

Woody Marks Anytime TD Odds: +135 (Fanatics)

2025-2026 NFL Stats

GP: 10  | Carries: 99 | Rushing Yards: 348 | Avg Rushing: 3.5 | Rush TD: 2 | Rec TD: 2 | Rush Long: 23 | First Down: 17 | Receiving yards: 190 | Receiving TD: 2 | Receiving long: 50

My second-best bet for tonight, I placed one unit on Texans running back Woody Marks to score a touchdown against the Buffalo Bills.

Running back Joe Mixon continues to remain sidelined for the Texans, and Ryans continues to trust Marks as the RB1. I bet on him last week to score a touchdown against a weak Titans defense. In the narrow 16-13 victory, he was bottled up for 44 yards on 18 carries, and the Texans were just 1-3 on red zone attempts.

With C.J. Stroud out on concussion protocol, quarterback Davis Mills threw for 274 yards, and Houston was very much committed to the pass game. I think that changes today, given Buffalo ranks No. 11 in defensive pass DVOA and No. 30 in defensive rush DVOA.

We are talking about a Bills team that can't stop the run if they tried. Aside from the Cincinnati Bengals, they allow the second-most rushing yards per game (153) and rushing yards to backs!

Why Woody Marks Can Score a Touchdown Against A Permeable Bills Defense

There's no doubt that Marks struggled last week, and the Texans went just 4-13 on third-down conversions. Averaging just 3.5 yards per carry on the season, his efficiency hasn't been stellar. Production has been tumultuous, and Marks remains a dual threat on the ground and in the passing game.

While posting just one touchdown over the last six weeks, he leads all Texans running backs with a 338 snap count, and outplayed Nick Chubb last week, who logged just 26 percent of snaps. Logging 80 and 66 percent of snaps over the last two weeks, Marks remains the guy—for now.

Marks should feast tonight, given the Bills just gave up 106 and 174 rushing yards to Sean Tucker (Buccaneers) and De'Von Achane (Dolphins) over the last two weeks! Let's face it— this is a Bills team that's given up seven touchdowns to running backs since Oct. 13. That includes Tucker, who had three, and Achane, with two.  With teams scoring over 57 percent in the red zone against Buffalo, there's a good chance Marks finds the end zone.

Final NFL Anytime Touchdown Bills vs Texans Betting Prediction: Woody Marks ATS Odds: +135 (Fanatics)

While Marks hasn't been extremely productive in the end zone, we have to analyze the stats here. Production has vastly increased, and he has 16 red zone rushing attempts over the last two games. It's clear Ryans is looking to score on the ground, despite Houston putting up a 23.8 rushing scoring percentage.

• I'm taking Woody Marks to feast and score a touchdown against the Bills tonight. The clear No.1 back, he did struggle against Tennessee last week. Holding a lackluster 2 percent touchdown rate, he is a threat in the backfield, and let's face it—I simply don't trust the Bills' front seven.