Chiefs vs Jaguars Anytime Touchdown Scorer Predictions: NFL Best Bets for Monday, October 6

Monday Night Football has arrived, and there's a highly anticipated NFL week 5 primetime matchup featuring the Chiefs and Jaguars.

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The Kansas City Chiefs (2-2, 1-1 away) will travel to Duval County to take on the 3-1 Jacksonville Jaguars.

With seven straight victories over the Jaguars since 2010, the Chiefs are -190 moneyline and 3.5-point spread favorites on Monday.

Backed by Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce, the Chiefs redeemed themselves against the Giants and Ravens. One year removed from the Super Bowl, the Chiefs sit third in the NFC West. The Jaguars are second in the AFC South behind the 4-1 Indianapolis Colts.

A new era has begun under Liam Coen and the Jaguars, who knocked off the 49ers and Texans. Now they get a shot at the Chiefs, who they haven't defeated since 2009!

A primetime matchup tonight, bettors will look for players who are most likely to score a touchdown with decent value. With over/under set for 45.5, the books are predicting a mid-high scoring game.

Given that both the Chiefs (19) and Jaguars (18) allow the third and fourth fewest points per game, this may end up being a relatively low-scoring game. Similar to defense, both teams average around the same number of points per game.

With Patrick Mahomes and Trevor Lawrence at the helm, let's take a look at my best bets and anytime touchdown scorer predictions for the Monday, October 6, NFL matchup featuring the Chiefs and Jaguars.

All of my bets in this article were made separately within FanDuel Sportsbook.

NFL Week 5 Best Bets: Chiefs vs Jaguars Anytime Touchdown Scorer Predictions for Monday, October 6

Travis Etienne Jr.  Anytime TD Odds: +115 (FanDuel)

2025-2026 NFL Stats

GP: 2 | Carries: 65 | Rush Yards: 394 | Rush Avg.: 6.1 | Rush TD: 2 | Rush long: 71 |REC: 6 | Targets: 10 | Receiving Yards: 32 | Rec Avg.: 5.3 | Receiving TD: 1 | Receiving long: 11

My first best bet for today, I placed one unit on Jacksonville Jaguars running back Travis Etienne Jr. to score a touchdown on Monday.

As mentioned in my previous article, I love this spot for Etienne tonight.

Playing 60 percent of the snaps in week 4, Etienne Jr. appears to be the workhorse running back for the Jaguars. With that said, he leads other running backs Bhayshul Tuten and LeQuint Allen with 35 rushing red zone rushing yards on 11 attempts. Inside the 20, he's been targeted 75 percent for a receiving touchdown. Inside the 20, he's rushed 68.8 percent of the time this year.

Why Travis Etienne Jr. Can Score A Touchdown Monday

An explosive back that can make the big plays, Etienne Jr. should have a field day against a weaker Chiefs defensive line. Allowing the tenth most touchdowns to running backs, bettors saw Cam Skattebo (Giants) and Saquon Barkley (Eagles) find the end zone against the Chiefs.

In addition, Ravens backup running back Justice Hill scored two touchdowns against Kansas City last week.

With a 50 percent red zone scoring percentage, the Jaguars face a Chiefs team that allows opponents to score just over 54 percent inside the 20.

Additionally, the Chiefs aren't particularly strong against the run, ranking 24th in rushing DVOA. Under Liam Coen, this offense has thrived under the run game, and the Jaguars rank No. 2 in offensive rushing DVOA.

Final NFL Anytime Touchdown Chiefs vs Jaguars Betting Prediction: Travis Etienne Jr. ATS Odds: +115 (FanDuel)

I love the odds here at +115, and I am pleasantly surprised at the Jaguars' offensive line this season. We are now talking about a running back who's averaged 106.5 rushing yards and is barely shy of 18 touches.

• I'm taking Travis Etienne Jr. to score a touchdown Monday vs the Chiefs. Given his volume and high usage, he already has three touchdowns on the season. While he has the lowest odds to score a touchdown, he leads all Jaguars players in red zone receiving yards and rushing attempts.

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JuJu Smith-Schuster Anytime TD Odds: +360 (FanDuel)

2025-2026 NFL Stats

GP: 4  | Receptions: 14 | Targets: 18 | Receiving Yards: 151 | Avg: 10.8 | Rec TD: 1 | Rush TD: 0 | Long Rec: 27 | First Down: 7

My second-best bet for today, I placed one unit on Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster to score a touchdown Monday against the Jaguars.

This may be a long shot at +360 odds, and Smith-Schuster is Mahomes' fourth receiving option behind Hollywood Brown, Travis Kelce, and Tyquan Thornton.

Mahomes and Smith-Schuster have had chemistry for quite some time, and this isn't his first stint with the Chiefs.  While this is all contingent on Xavier Worthy suiting up, Smith-Schuste has put together 151 receiving yards, on 18 targets and 14 receptions.

Likely to line up in the wide or slot, the Jaguars' defense is solid, especially at the linebacker position with Foyesade Oluokun, Devin Lloyd, and Dennis Dardeck.  While Tyquan Thornton leads the Chiefs in receiving touchdowns (3), Mahomes has several threats to throw to. Here's why I like this touchdown prop tonight.

Smith-Schuster has one touchdown on the season, and logged 78 percent of snaps in week 4, which led all receivers. This year, he's hovered around 70-80 percent of snaps through four games. Marquise Brown, Tyquan Thornton, and Xavier Worthy all logged under 60 percent of snaps last week.

Final NFL Anytime Touchdown Chiefs vs Jaguars Betting Prediction: JuJu Smith-Schuster ATS Odds: +115 (FanDuel)

It's no surprise Smith-Schuster has been targeted the most in the end zone (5 targets), and trails behind Thornton with a 60 receiving percentage. Inside the 20, he leads all receivers with a 38.5 target percentage and three receptions.

• I'm taking JuJu Smith-Schuster to score a touchdown Monday. The Jaguars rank No. 15 in opposing touchdowns to receivers. So far, we've seen Nico Harrison (Texans) and Ja'Marr Chase (Bengals) find the end zone. This year, he's averaging nearly a 14 percent target share. In week 4 against the Ravens, he posted a 17.4 target percentage. 

Travis Kelce Anytime TD Odds: +155 (FanDuel)

2025-2026 NFL Stats

GP: 4  | Receptions: 14 | Targets: 18 | Receiving Yards: 151 | Avg: 10.8 | Rec TD: 1 | Rush TD: 0 | Long Rec: 27 | First Down: 7

My third best bet for Monday, I placed one unit on Kansas City Chiefs star tight end Travis Kelce to score a touchdown.

Mahomes' second favorite receiver behind Hollywood Brown, Kelce has yet to score a touchdown this season. However, he's posted 182 receiving yards, 22 targets, and 15 receptions.

Yet to top 62+ receiving yards, Kelce is coming off a 48-yard, 5-reception performance against a Lamar Jackson-less Ravens.

This may be a popular pick, but I like it for several reasons. Kelce played 66 percent of snaps, which is the second most behind Smith-Schuster. In the first three games, he played between 74-84 percent of the snaps.

There is a chance tight end Noah Gray gets some looks. However, Kelce leads all tight ends with 10 receiving yards and four targets in the end zone. In fact, he has been targeted 80 percent of the time inside the 20-yard line. Additionally, he has averaged 16.1 percent of the team's targets through four weeks.

This season, Travis Kelce has been targeted at least once in each game in the end zone. Monday, he faces a Jaguars defense that gives up the 15th most touchdowns and 19th most receiving yards to tight ends.

Jake Tonges(49ers) scored a touchdown against the Jaguars last week and logged 58 receiving yards with it. Although the Jaguars rank No. 5 in defensive DVOA, there's great value here at +155 odds.

Final NFL Anytime Touchdown Chiefs vs Jaguars Betting Prediction: Travis Kelce ATS Odds: +55 (FanDuel)

Overall, the Chiefs' offense is clicking. Additionally, Mahomes has put up nearly 500 yards of offense over the last two weeks. The Jaguars have allowed seven rushing touchdowns (rank no. 13), and there's no denying the Mahomes to Kelce connection. Logging four and five receptions, Kelce has been targeted 18 times over the last three games.

• For this reason, I'm taking Travis Kelce to score a touchdown on Monday night (MNF). While it's a gamble who gets the ball in the end zone, this is the most reliable pick.