NFL Divisional Round Best Bets: 3 Best NFL Picks & Predictions For Saturday, January 17

The NFL Divisional Round is here, and there are two playoff matchups on the Saturday slate! Let's take a look at my best bets for Saturday.

(Photo by Emilee Chinn/Getty Images)

Starting mid-afternoon, Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills (12-5, 5-3 away) will square off against Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos (14-3, 8-1 home).

The books are predicting a close matchup, as the Broncos are slim 1.5-point spread favorites at home. The No.1. seed and top dogs in the AFC, the Broncos rounded out the regular season with an 8-1 record down the stretch. The second favorite among oddsmakers to win the AFC Championship (+250), Denver has the fourth-highest odds (+750) to win Super Bowl LX.

While the Broncos received a first-round BYE, the Bills took care of the Jacksonville Jaguars 27-24 in the Wild Card Round.

AFC Divisional Round Matchup: Buffalo Bills vs. Denver Broncos

The Bills have been knocking on the door of a Super Bowl for a few years now, making six straight playoff appearances. Unable to defeat Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs in last year's AFC Championship matchup, Buffalo is on a mission. A franchise that hasn't made a Super Bowl appearance since 1993, the Bills have the third-best odds to win the AFC Championship (+270), and fourth-best odds to win Super Bowl LX (+600).

Buffalo finished out the regular season with a 6-3 down the stretch, and has a 6-3 record against the Broncos since 2007. Last defeating Denver 31-7 in January 2025, can they upset on the road?

Is this Josh Allen's easiest path to the Super Bowl with Mahomes, Joe Burrow, and Lamar Jackson out of playoff contention? Or will Bo Nix and the Broncos advance to the AFC Championship since 2015, the year they last won the Super Bowl?

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NFC Divisional Round Matchup: San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks

The late-night showdown will feature an NFL divisional matchup between the San Francisco 49ers (12-5, 7-2 away) and the Seattle Seahawks (14-3, 6-2 home). NFC West division rivals, the Seahawks, are favorites to win both the NFC Championship (+120) and Super Bowl LX.(+280). Neither team has won a Super Bowl since the mid-2010s, featuring the Russell Wilson and Peyton Manning era.

9-1 down the stretch, the Seahawks earned a first-round BYE after earning the No. 1 seed in the NFC. 7-2 in the last nine games, the 49ers defeated the Philadelphia Eagles 23-19 in the Wild-Card Round. 1-1 head-to-head this season, the 49ers lost to the Seahawks 13-3 in January 2026 on their home turf. Overall, San Francisco is 7-3 against Seattle since 2021.

In the marquee matchup of the day, the books aren't predicting a tight matchup as Seattle is favored by seven points. Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold is questionable with an oblique injury. Can they advance, or will the 49ers upset without George Kittle?

NFL Divisional Round Schedule and FanDuel Odds for January 17

If you're betting on the NFL, welcome!

The late-afternoon showdown featuring the Bills and Broncos will kick off at 4:30 p.m. ET at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver. Set to broadcast on CBS, the weather forecast calls for 7 mph winds with temperatures in the low 30s.

Tonight's matchup between the 49ers and Seahawks will begin at 8 p.m. ET, located at Lumen Field in Seattle. Set to air on FOX, the weather forecast predicts 9 mph wind gusts and temperatures in the mid-40s.

In this article, you will find my three best bets, player prop picks, and predictions for the Saturday, Jan. 17 NFL Divisional Round matchups. My bets today include receiver and quarterback props, as well as over/under points. If you're tailing my bets, I made all of my picks within Fanatics, DraftKings, and FanDuel Sportsbooks.

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NFL Divisional Round Picks

• Khalil Shakir Over 50.5 Receiving Yards
• Josh Allen Over 253.3 Passing + Rushing Yards
• 49ers vs. Seahawks UNDER 44.5 Points

NFL Divisional Round Best Bets: Khalil Shakir (Bills)

• Over 50.5 Receiving Yards (-115 Fanatics)

My first best bet for Saturday, I placed one unit on Bills wide receiver Khalil Shakir to record over 50.5 receiving yards.

Josh Allen doesn't have an elite receiving corps; however, Shakir is his top target. With Curtis Samuel questionable, and Joshua Palmer and Gabe Davis on the IR, Shakir has quickly emerged as the No. 1 receiver in Buffalo.

Leading all Bills' receivers with 719 yards on the season, Shakir is the main slot guy aside from a two-man tight end system that includes Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox. In last week's 27-24 Wild Card victory over the Jaguars, it was Shakir who led Buffalo with 82 receiving yards and 12 receptions. While Allen passed the football to nine different players, no receiver aside from Shakir recorded over three receptions. Not to mention, Shakir led the team with 12 targets. Next up was Brandin Cooks with 58 yards on 3-of-5 targets.

Why Khalil Shakir Can Clear This Player Prop Bet Saturday

There's no doubt that Shakir had a shaky season from a betting perspective.  Torching the Houston Texans for a season-high 110 yards, he averaged just shy of 45 receiving yards per game through 16 games.

It's the playoffs—Josh Allen is going to throw to his top receivers. That said, Shakir has been targeted 19 times over the last two matchups, hauling in 117 receiving yards and 18 receptions.

Clearing this prop line just twice over the last five games, we've seen Shakir explode for 82 and 65 yards against stingy Jaguars and Patriots defenses. Last hauling in 61 yards against the Broncos in January 2025, he gets another shot today.

There's no question the Broncos' defense is elite, ranking No. 4 in defensive DVOA and No. 8 against the pass. Not to mention, Patrick Surtain II is one of the most elite cornerbacks in the league. Therefore, let's stay away from him.

Final NFL Divisional Round Best Bet & Prediction: Khalil Shakir OVER 50.5 Receiving Yards (-115 Fanatics)

Shakir is mainly a slot guy, and has been known to make the big plays for Allen mid-field. While Denver has a strong defense, it's been proven porous at times. Overall, they've allowed the seventh-most yards this season (2, 598) to slot receivers. Giving up over 30 yards per game in the slot, this is a great spot for Shakir.

• I'm taking Khalil Shakir to record over 50.5 receiving yards today. Soaring over this line in six games this season, Denver gave up 145 receiving yards to Jags receiver Parker Washington three weeks ago. On the season, the Broncos have allowed over 50.5 receiving yards to 11 different receivers this season. 

NFL Divisional Round Best Bets: Josh Allen (Bills)

• Over 253.5 Passing + Rushing Yards (-113 FanDuel)

My second-best bet for Saturday, I placed one unit on Bills quarterback Josh Allen to record over 253.5 passing and rushing yards against the Broncos.

Considered one of the most elite rushing quarterbacks in the NFL, the Bills' success starts and ends with Allen. Today won't be easy for Allen, considering the Broncos rank eighth in defensive pass DVOA. They allowed the 10th-fewest pass yards to quarterbacks.

It's fair to say running back James Cook has been inconsistent for Buffalo, and Denver boasts a strong defense against the run. Allen last threw for 272 passing yards against Denver in January 2025, along with 46 rushing yards. Having thrown for 273 passing yards alone last week against Jacksonville, Allen has eclipsed 250+ passing yards in nine games this season (including the playoffs). Over the past 10 matchups played, he's soared over 250+ passing yards in seven of them.

Why Josh Allen Can Soar Over This Player Prop

We know the Broncos boast a high blitz rate (28.5%), meaning Allen could be running for his life tonight. Middle of the road against rushing quarterbacks, the Broncos allowed Trey Lance to rush for 69 yards at the end of the season, and gave up 20+ rushing yards alone to six different quarterbacks this season.

Not to mention, Trevor Lawrence (279 yards), Jordan Love (276 yards), Marcus Mariota (294 yards), and Patrick Mahomes (276 yards) all crushed this prop line alone from passing yards in recent weeks against Denver.

With several members listed on the Bills' injury report, Allen will put his body on the line to advance to another AFC Championship game. While down a few receivers, he threw 35 pass attempts last week, and is averaging 27.5 passing attempts and 19 completions over the last four games. Plus, he easily cleared this line with 306 passing and rushing yards against Jacksonville and 289 passing and rushing yards against the Eagles.

Final NFL Divisional Round Best Bet & Prediction: Josh Allen OVER 253.5 Passing + Rushing Yards (-113 FanDuel)

• I'm taking Josh Allen to record over 253.5 passing and rushing yards on Saturday. The volume was there last week, and that should repeat today. 

NFL Divisional Round Best Bets: 49ers vs. Seahawks

• Under 44.5 Total Points (-115 DraftKings)

My third-best bet for Saturday, I placed one unit on the 49ers vs. Seahawks game to total under 44.5 points.

This Seahawks defense is no joke, ranking No. 1 in defensive DVOA, defensive pass DVOA, and defensive rush DVOA. There's not much that gets by this team, and they proved that in the final matchup of the season.

These two teams ironically squared off in the last game of the NFL season, in which the Seahawks were crowned NFC champions and NFC West champions. Defeating the 49ers 13-3, both defenses were abysmal.

Quite the contrary from Brock Purdy's previous performances, he threw for just 127 yards and an interception for the 49ers. With San Francisco's running game limited to just 53 rushing yards, Christian McCaffrey couldn't top 23 rushing yards alone. Losing tight end George Kittle to an Achilles injury, Jauan Jennings led the team with 35 receiving yards.

Why The Under is the Play

A similar situation for Seattle, Sam Darnold threw for 198 yards, although Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet made up for it on the ground with 171 rushing yards. With the 49ers scoring a lone field goal, both Kickers accounted for nine points alone.

Weather may play a factor (winds) in tonight's game, plus Darnold remains questionable to lace up. With injuries on both sides, I don't see this as a high-scoring affair, and neither do the books.

Overall, the last three head-to-head matchups between these teams have soared under 44.5 total points. Averaging a game total of 27 points over those meetings, the total hasn't come close to 40 points, let alone 45 points.

We saw how low-scoring the last game was with the division on the line. Do we expect anything different with the season on the line?

Final NFL Divisional Round Best Bet & Prediction: 49ers vs. Seahawks UNDER 44.5 Points (-115 DraftKings)

While both teams rank among the top 10 in offensive DVOA, the 49ers lose a key piece to their offense with Kittle out. Plus, Drew Lock will be named the starting quarterback if Darnold is unable to play.

• I'm taking the 49ers vs. Seahawks matchup to total under 44.5 points. Each of these teams has soared under this line over the last two games, and this Seahawks defense is elite and can stop anyone. Over the last two weeks, Seattle has held the 49ers and Panthers to a total of 13 points. With Carolina scoring just 10 points, the Seahawks limited Bryce Young to just 54 passing yards and one interception.