NFL Divisional Round Best Bets: 3 Best NFL Picks & Predictions For Sunday, January 18

It's the most wonderful time of the year, meaning the NFL playoffs have arrived! Sunday's Divisional matchups feature the Texans vs. Patriots and Rams vs. Bears. Let's take a look at the odds and my best bets!

(Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)

CJ Stroud and the Houston Texans (12-5) will take on Drake Maye and the New England Patriots (14-3) in Foxborough. With snow and low temperatures in the forecast, the Patriots are 3.5-point spread favorites and -168 on the moneyline.  Oddsmakers are predicting a close matchup in New England.

Earning the No. 2 seed in the AFC, the Patriots defeated the Los Angeles Chargers 16-3 in the Wild Card Round. Finishing as the No. 5 seed in the conference, the Texans edged out the Pittsburgh Steelers 30-6 on the road last week.

AFC Divisional Round: Houston Texans vs New England Patriots

Featuring two young quarterbacks in Stroud and Maye, tonight's matchup highlights a top Patriots' offense vs. an elite Texans' defense. Currently, the Patriots are favored to win the AFC Championship (+130) and hold the third-best odds to win Super Bowl LX (+440).

While holding the third-worst odds to win the AFC Championship (+250), the Texans have the fourth-best odds to raise the Lombardi Trophy (-750).

NFC Divisional Round: Los Angeles Rams vs Chicago Bears

Sunday night will feature the Los Angeles Rams (12-5) and the Chicago Bears (11-6).  Earning the No. 2 seed in the NFC, the Bears made an improbable comeback against the Packers in the Wild Card Round. Rounding out as the No. 5 seed in the conference, the Rams took care of the Carolina Panthers, 34-31.

3.5-point spread and +166 moneyline underdogs at home, the Bears have the highest odds of winning Super Bowl LX (+1200). Conversely, the Rams have the second-best odds to win Super Bowl LX (+310) and are favored to win the NFC (+190) behind the Seattle Seahawks.

With snow and low temperatures expected in both matchups, which teams will advance to the AFC and NFC Championship rounds?

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NFL Divisional Round Schedule and FanDuel Odds for January 18

If you're betting on the NFL Divisional Round, welcome in!

Sunday's matchup between the Texans and Patriots will kick off at 3:00 p.m. ET in Foxborough. Set to air on ESPN, snow is in the forecast. The late-night showdown between the Rams and Bears will begin at 6:30 p.m ET on NBC/Peacock.

Let's take a look at my three best bets, player prop picks, and predictions for the Sunday, Jan. 18 NFL Divisional matchups. Texans vs. Patriots and Rams vs. Bears, the season is on the line for all four teams. Who will advance next? In this article, I focused on player prop bets for top quarterbacks and running backs. Included in this piece is a point spread prediction.

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NFL Divisional Round Picks

• Drake Maye Over 38.5 Rushing Yards
• Kyren Williams Over 13.5 Rushing Attempts
• Chicago Bears +3.5 (-105 FanDuel)

NFL Divisional Round Best Bets: Drake Maye (Patriots)

• Over 38.5 Rushing Yards (-112 FanDuel)

My first best bet for Sunday, I placed one unit on Patriots quarterback Drake Maye to record over 38.5 rushing yards.

The Texans boast one of the best pass-rushing duos with Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter. Yes, Maye should be running for his life tonight. This season, the Texans have ranked middle-of-the-road, allowing 19.6 rushing yards to quarterbacks this season.

What makes Maye so dangerous is his ability to use his legs, which we've time and time again. Recording 450 rushing yards in 17 regular-season NFL games, Maye has rushed for 39+ yards in just five games.

In last week's 16-3 victory over the Chargers, Maye took over with his legs, rushing for 66 yards on 10 carries. In week 17 against Miami, he erupted for 41 rushing yards on five carries.

With snow and cold temperatures in the forecast, I'm expecting New England to somewhat keep the ground game going. With that said, Maye continues to show why his running game has been crucial. That said, every yard and first down counts.

When we look at opposing top defenses, Maye rushed for 45 yards against the Steelers, 50 vs. the Browns, and 43 against the Bills. Plus, Houston boasts the second-best drop-back sack rate in the NFL.

While Patrick Mahomes rushed for 59 yards against Houston, five different quarterbacks have rushed for 30+ yards against the Texans.

Final NFL Divisional Round Best Bet & Prediction: Drake Maye OVER 38.5 Rushing Yards (-112 FanDuel)

In temperatures below 40 degrees this season, Maye has rushed for 120 yards on 22 carries, for two touchdowns. Averaging 5.5 yards per carry in cold temps, Maye is built for this moment.

• I'm taking Drake Maye to record over 38.5 rushing yards on Sunday. Houston ranks near dead last against quarterback scrambles, and Maye is one of the best in escaping the pocket with a 10.16% scramble rate. 

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NFL Divisional Round Best Bets: Kyren Williams (Rams)

• Over 13.5 Rushing Attempts (-120 Fanatics)

My second-best bet for Sunday, I placed one unit on Rams running back Kyren Williams to record over 13.5 rushing attempts.

While the Rams deploy a dual running back threat with Williams and Blake Corum, Williams remains the top option. Logging 63% of snaps last week, he leads all Rams running backs with 820 total snaps on the season.

Averaging 4.6 yards per carry, Williams recorded another 1,200+ rushing yard season and tallied 259 carries through 17 games. With an average of 15 carries, I do believe the books are sleeping on this line.

The Bears are one of the least efficient teams against the run, ranking No. 28 in defensive rushing DVOA.  Allowing 136.3 rushing yards per game on the season, this might just be the prime opportunity for Williams. With temperatures expected below zero and snow in the forecast, I'm expecting his usage and carries to increase.

Yet to play in under 40-degree temperatures this season, this will be a test for Williams and the Rams. However, last season, Williams rushed for 122 yards on 23 carries for an average of 5.3 YPC in temperatures below 40 degrees. How much could that mean for tonight?

Final NFL Divisional Round Best Bet & Prediction: Kyren Williams OVER 13.5 Rushing Attempts (-120 Fanatics)

Williams logged 57 rush attempts on 13 carries, while Matthew Stafford and the passing game took care of the Panthers last week. Having averaged 15.2 carries over the last five games, Williams has cleared this line in eight games this season.

• Hovering around 12-13 carries per game, the weather will play a factor here. Therefore, I'm taking Kyren Williams to record over 13.5 rushing attempts on Sunday Night. 

NFL Divisional Round Best Bets: Chicago Bears

• +3.5 vs. LA Rams (-105 FanDuel)

My third-best bet for Sunday, I placed one unit on the Chicago Bears to cover the 3.5-point spread against the Rams.

The Rams are priced based on weather conditions, the fact that they are on the road, and that they barely beat the Panthers. I do think this is true, as the Rams defeated Carolina 34-31 in the Wild Card Round.

Ultimately, this is a game featuring the NFL's top offense (Rams) vs. one of the bottom-ranked defenses (Bears). Keep in mind, the Rams allowed Carolina to score 31 points last week. Now they get a Bears team that came back and defeated the Packers 31-27 last week.

The Bears get another home matchup and should have the weather advantage. Sorry, Matthew Stafford, we are not in Southern California anymore.

Overall, both teams have been decent at covering the spread. The Rams boast a 12-6 ATS record, and the Bears, 12-5-1 ATS. Chicago is 4-1 ATS over their last 5 matchups against the Packers, Lions, 49ers, and Browns. With regular-season victories over the Steelers, Eagles, and Packers, this team can hang.

Tonight may highlight two strong quarterbacks in Stafford and Caleb Williams (who threw for 361 yards and two touchdowns last week). But will tonight come down to the run game? While the Rams have the defensive edge, they've allowed an average of 30 points over the last five games.

Final NFL Divisional Round Best Bet & Prediction: Chicago Bears +3.5 (-105 FanDuel)

While I don't have 100% faith in Chicago's defense, the offense is humming. Call them the comeback kids— they're averaging 27.6 points over the last five games, and barely lost to the Lions and 49ers (by four points or less).

• I'm laying the points with the Bears at home in cold weather. While the Rams have a scary lineup with Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, the Bears' offense is loaded with D.J. Moore, Luther Burden II, Rome Odunze, and Colston Loveland. I do believe this could be a shootout if the weather isn't a factor. Either way, I'm expecting this to end with a field goal.