NFL Divisional Round Touchdown Scorer Predictions: Who Will Score The First Touchdown Sunday, January 18

The 2026 NFL Playoffs are here, and there are two Divisional matchups on Sunday. Who will score the first touchdown in each game?

(Photo by Dustin Satloff/Getty Images)

Betting on the first touchdown scorer can be a fun one, but risky. That said, I always preach responsible betting, even when the potential payout is large. Let's break down the matchups and who could be the possible first players to cross the plane.

Last night, the Seattle Seahawks' defense delivered a 95-yard kickoff return by Rashid Shaheed for the first touchdown of the game.

On Sunday, the New England Patriots host the Houston Texans at home. Tonight, the Chicago Bears will host the Los Angeles Rams in the Windy City. So far, wide receivers have scored a majority of first touchdowns following Wild Card Weekend.

RELATED: ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN SCORERS: DIVISIONAL ROUND

As previously mentioned in my first article, the Rams boast the No. 1 offense in the NFL, ranking No. 1 in offensive rushing and passing DVOA. That said, the Rams have scored the first touchdown in 11 of 18 regular-season matchups. Scoring the first touchdown over 60% of the time, will the Rams strike first?

The Bears don't fall far behind, scoring the first touchdown in 10 of 18 games played in the regular NFL season. Scoring the first touchdown over 55 percent of the time, do the Bears score first at home? While it all depends on the coin toss and the team's choice, there are some stats to back it up. It's worth noting that Chicago hasn't scored the first touchdown in any of its last three matchups against the 49ers, Lions, and Packers.

NFL Divisional Round First Touchdown Scorer Predictions

Conversely, the Rams opened up with a Puka Nacua 14-yard touchdown on the road against the Panthers last week, and scored first against the Cardinals to close out the regular season.

Despite scoring the third-most touchdowns in the NFL with 58 this season, the Patriots scored first in just eight games this season. The Texans have been slightly more productive, scoring the first touchdown in 10 games. Last week, the Texans scored first with a Christian Kirk touchdown in the second quarter. For the Patriots, Hunter Henry scored the only touchdown of the game in the final quarter.

Let's break down my top first touchdown scorer bets for Sunday, Jan. 18, Divisional matchups featuring the Texans vs. Patriots and Rams vs. Bears.

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NFL First Touchdown Scorer Predictions Divisional Round: Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots

Texans Best First Touchdown Scorer Odds: Jayden Higgins (+1600 DraftKings)

While I'm using my best judgment on these picks, I'm taking Houston Texans wide receiver Jayden Higgins to score the first touchdown Sunday against the New England Patriots.

There was a while where Higgins disappeared during my fantasy football playoffs, but he should see increased usage given that Nico Collins is out for today's matchup. Scoring the first touchdown in 10 games in the regular season, can the Texans keep up in the cold weather?

I'm fading Christian Kirk, who scored the first touchdown against the Steelers last week. Higgins closed out the regular season, scoring the first touchdowns over the final two weeks, and crossed the plane first three times overall.

With temperatures forecast around the mid-30s, snow and 5 mph wind gusts are predicted at kick off. Either way, Higgins faces a Patriots' defense that's allowed the ninth-most touchdowns to receivers. In fact, New England has given up 17 touchdowns to wideouts this season.

Overall, Christian Kirk and Xavier Hutchinson have tough matchups with cornerbacks Marcus Jones and Christian Gonzalez. Of all matchups, I like Higgins against Carlton Davis III, especially since Higgins has the height advantage at 6-foot-4.

Aside from Collins, Higgins is second on the team with 39 red zone receiving yards, completing 4-of-7 receptions for three touchdowns. He's been by far one of Stroud's most trusted receivers aside from Collins and tight end Dalton Schultz. Recording 525 receiving yards on the year, Higgins and Collins finished with six touchdowns each.

Best betting predictions: Jayden Higgins to score the first touchdown on Sunday

Logging 46% of snaps last week—that should increase.  While Kirk led all receivers with 144 yards on eight receptions, Higgins recorded 39 on three receptions and four targets.

• Scoring two touchdowns over the past three outings, I'm taking Jayden Higgins to score the first touchdown on Sunday. One of my best bets: he's scored a touchdown in every game Collins missed this season. 

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Patriots Best First Touchdown Scorer Odds: Rhamondre Stevenson (+650 DraftKings)

I have Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson to score the first touchdown as my second-best on Sunday.

If the Patriots win the coin toss, they may elect to kick, giving Houston a chance to punch first. This is a team that's scored first just eight times this season. Given that Stevenson dealt with injuries, he scored first once against the Bills in week 4.

It's been rookie running back TreVeyon Henderson who's scored first twice this season, and Drake Maye has connected with tight ends Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper for six first touchdowns this season. While it makes sense for one of them to score the first touchdown, I'm going with the ground game today.

While Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel is committed to a dual-running back committee, it's been Stevenson who's been the biggest goal-line threat as of late. Scoring six touchdowns over the last four games, he boasts a 5.4% rushing touchdown rate. Not to mention, he has a 23.1% broken tackle percentage, and he is hauling in 3.4% of the team's air yards.

Both backs are talented, but let's face it–Stevenson is a beast. Out snapping Henderson 570 to 526, he's leading the pack with 121 snaps over the last four weeks. Not to mention, he's recorded 268 rushing yards and three touchdowns in temperatures under 40 degrees.

Best betting predictions: Rhamondre Stevenson to score the first touchdown on Sunday

It's a tall task for Stevenson, who faces a stingy Texans defense that allows the 13th-fewest touchdowns to running backs. Holding running backs scoreless over the past two weeks, Ashton Jeanty and Omarion Hampton scored a combined three touchdowns down the stretch.

• For +650 odds, I'm taking Rhamondre Stevenson to score the first touchdown in what should be a low-scoring affair with snow. 

NFL First Touchdown Scorer Predictions Divisional Round: Los Angeles Rams vs. Chicago Bears

Rams Best First Touchdown Scorer Odds: Kyren Williams (+600 DraftKings)

The weather forecast is calling for 33 mph wind gusts and zero-degree temperatures with snow in Chicago. That said, how will the Rams fare? Quarterback Matthew Stafford has had a stellar career playing for the Lions and Rams—but let's face it—has Stafford ever played in a game like this? With the wind chill, temperatures are expected to be below zero.

I'm taking Kyren Williams to score the first touchdown here. Yes, head coach Sean McVay is committed to a dual-back system with Williams and Blake Corum. However, it's been Williams who's scored the first touchdown six times this season.

Yes, you read that correctly—six times. Why would I fade Williams now with the value at +600 odds?

While it's been Puka Nacua who's scored the first touchdown in two straight games, I'm going with the Rams' run game. Boasting the top offense in the NFL, they face a Bears defense that ranks No. 25 in defensive DVOA and No. 28 in defensive rushing DVOA.

Best betting predictions: Kyren Williams to score the first touchdown on Sunday

While Packers running back Josh Jacobs was stuffed for just 55 yards last week, Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) and Christian McCaffrey (49ers) torched the Bears for 80 and 140 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Overall, Chicago has given up just nine rushing touchdowns.

• Boasting a 3.9 rushing touchdown percentage, I'm taking Kyren Williams to score the first touchdown on Sunday. While held to just 57 yards on 13 carries against Carolina, he's led the snap count(158-68) vs. Corum over the last four weeks.

Bears Best First Touchdown Scorer Odds: D'Andre Swift (+900 DraftKings)

I'm sticking with a trend, betting on the running backs to score the first touchdown on Sunday. While the Bears deploy a running back committee, I'm going with D'Andre Swift to score the first touchdown.

He's scored first five times, including last week against the Packers. Scoring first in 10 games this season, I'll gladly back the Bears to punch first at home.

Completing his second 1,000+ rushing yard season of his career, Swift led all running backs with 10 touchdowns, and has now found the end zone three times over the last three games.

Rushing for just 54 yards on 13 carries, Swift also recorded 38 receiving yards in the Wild Card victory over Green Bay. Next in line was Kyle Monangai, who was bottled up for 27 rushing yards on eight attempts.

This is a challenging matchup for Swift, who faces an elite Rams defense that's allowed the fifth-fewest touchdowns to running backs this season. This was evident as they held the Panthers' running backs to 50 rushing yards.

However, there's a silver lining to this. Chubba Hubbard scored twice last week, and the Rams have allowed four rushing touchdowns over the last four games.

Best betting predictions: D'Andre Swift to score the first touchdown on Sunday

Why not take a gamble on Swift? He's learned to run outside routes effectively, something he struggled with in Detroit. Plus, he's tallied 23 carries over the last two games. The Rams allowed 25.6 touches to running backs, including a 4.2 YPC and 88.5 yards per game.

• I'm taking D'Andre Swift to score the first touchdown in what is predicted to be one of the coldest outings ever.