NFL Draft Odds: Raiders Cut Geno Smith Paving Path To Take Fernando Mendoza With the No. 1 Pick

The Raiders had high hopes when they signed Geno Smith last offseason, but things didn’t go anywhere near how the front office thought they would. Instead of winning games, Las Vegas played so poorly that it has the No. 1 pick in the NFL draft, which it is expected to use on its future franchise quarterback, Fernando Mendoza.

So, in a strange way, signing Smith wasn’t a complete failure. The mission was accomplished, just not in the manner Las Vegas had hoped. I am, of course, assuming the Raiders will select Mendoza.

(Photo by G Fiume/Getty Images)

But why wouldn’t they? He led a basketball school, Indiana, to the national championship, won the Heisman, and looks like what we expect an NFL starting quarterback to look like. However, this is the Raiders we are talking about here. They once took a kicker in the first round (Sebastian Janikowski, 17th pick of the 2000 Draft).

NFL Draft Odds to Go With the No. 1 Pick

The talk is all about Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza, but let’s take a look at the top five on the DraftKings oddsboard:

• Fernando Mendoza -20000
• Arvell Reese +8000
• David Bailey +9000
• Ty Simpson +9000
• Rueben Bain Jr. +10000

At those odds, Mendoza has a 99.5% chance of being taken with the No. 1 pick of the 2026 NFL Draft, which is currently owned by the Las Vegas Raiders (who just cut their QB1). But what do other sportsbooks say about Mendoza’s odds of going No. 1?

• FanDuel: -20000
• Caesars: -20000
• BetMGM: -10000
• Fanatics: -100000
• HardRock: -20000
• BetRivers: -10000

The answer to that is simple. Teams draft to cover needs, and often, especially with the first round, the best available player. Quarterbacks often go first because if a team gets the right one, it can go from pretender to contender in as little as two seasons (i.e., the New England Patriots).

Teams have traded away fortunes for the chance to acquire such players. The Raiders just had to sign Geno Smith, pay him a small fortune, and lose 14 games.

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Haven’t We (Raider Nation) Been Here Before?

Back in grade school, the popular kids always got picked first when playing playground football. But just because a player is popular does not mean his skill set will translate to the NFL. Longtime fans will remember/loathe former Raiders’ No. 1 pick of the 2007 NFL Draft, JaMarcus Russell.

His arm strength was considered historic as he could throw 70+ yards with ease. He had a huge frame at 6-foot-6 and 265 pounds, but he was quick enough to be a run threat and could take the hits. Russell had a knack for making plays and often had his best performances in the most important games.

Russell looked like a no-brainer to go No. 1, a future franchise quarterback for sure. There was no way the Raiders could afford to miss out on him. But, as Raider Nation knows all too well, they did, and Russell went down as one of the biggest NFL draft busts of all time.

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Could Fernando Mendoza Be Overrated?

Okay, so Mendoza won the Heisman Trophy and guided Indiana to a national championship. He didn’t do it all himself; the roster around him and on defense was stacked with talent. As much as he deserves credit for making the team better, how much does he deserve?

His predecessor had solid and comparable numbers:

• Kurtis Rourke: 222-320 (69.4%) for 3,042 yards, 29 TDs, 5 INTs, 20 sacks, and 9.5 yards per attempt.
• Fernando Mendoza: 273-379 (72%) for 3,535, 41 TDs, 6 INTS, 25 sacks, and 9.3 yards per attempt.

Rourke didn’t win a Heisman or lead Indiana to a national championship, but he did help a team that was 3-9 in 2023 turn things around and go 11-2 and finish No. 10 in the polls in 2024 — and he was a seventh-round pick.

Why the Raiders Should Take Fernando Mendoza With the No. 1 Pick

Is he getting too much credit for Indiana’s success? Could he turn out like Russell or a different quarterback bust, i.e., Akili Smith (Bengals, 1999), Tim Couch (Browns, 1999), or David Carr (Texans, 2002)? It’s possible, but let’s examine why draft analysts are so sure he will not:

1. Prototypical NFL size: 6-foot-5, 225 lbs.; he has the size to stand tall in the pocket and see over the linemen, can absorb hits, but is athletic enough to escape.
2. Arm Talent: He can throw on the run, drive the ball into tight windows, and is good at throwing the deep ball; he was the third-most accurate QB in the nation last season with min. 180 attempts (72%); accurate with the short to intermediate routes (i.e., slants, crossing, timing, back-shoulder, etc).
3. Calm under pressure: Just watch the comeback drive against Penn State or the game-winning drive from the national championship game.
4. Rapid Development/Coachable: Mendoza went from being a guy many were aware of at Cal to a household name after one season at Indiana. That kind of rapid development proves that he has the work ethic needed to continue fine-tuning his game and that he’s coachable.

Does all of this mean his skill set is a lock to transfer to the next level? Of course not. But it does mean he has everything NFL scouts want in a quarterback. Yes, the notoriety that comes with his rapid rise and the ascension of Indiana's football program help make him appear to be "the guy."

But a quarterback's success is as much a result of the team and talent around him as his own skillset. If the Raiders do not draft well and/or acquire the right players via free agency and/or trade, Mendoza may not become the guy they hope he is.