NFL First Touchdown Scorer Best Bets: Week 3 Odds & Picks for Sunday (Sept. 27)

Had you bet on Christian Watson to record the first touchdown Thursday night, you would have had a nice payout at +750 (BetMGM). Nice payout, right? Well, what about the rest of Week 3? Who’s a good First Touchdown Bet for Sunday’s games? Chuba Hubbard is the only player to record one twice, but the Browns have yet to allow a rushing touchdown this season.

Detroit has surrendered 10 touchdowns this season, but the Jets have only scored four.

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NFL First Touchdown Best Bets for Week 3

The odds are typically kind of long for a reason — it’s a tough one to predict. But after doing a deep dive into the stats, trends, and numbers, here are my top first touchdown picks for Sunday, Week 3 (all odds via FanDuel):

New York Jets vs. Detroit Lions

• Jahmyr Gibbs, First Touchdown Scorer (+270, FanDuel)

The Jets have yet to allow a rushing touchdown this season and have allowed only three so far. But they also haven't faced a strong offensive team. Both Green Bay (Week 2) and Tennessee (Week 1) are struggling to run the ball this season and are averaging under 20 points a game.

So, while the Jets have been better overall this season, don’t get too excited about them just yet. Could they score the first touchdown, though? Don’t count on it. Only the Packers (who have played three games) have allowed more touchdowns (11) than Detroit’s 10. But the Jets offense has been pretty inefficient early in games. According to PFF, it has an EPA per play (expected points added) score of -0.193 for the first 15 plays of the game.

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Detroit, by contrast, has been much more efficient (0.109).

Of Detroit’s touchdowns this season, six have been via the pass, with the other two on the ground. Both were scored by Jahmyr Gibbs, who has recorded 45 of the Lions’ 53 rush attempts. He is also tied for second on the team in receptions (11) and third in targets (13). He has had 11 of Detroit’s 12 red-zone carries this season, scored the first touchdown in five games last season, and has already done so once this season.

Gibbs is a solid bet to do so again today.

Seattle Seahawks vs. Washington Commanders

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba, First Touchdown Scorer (+500, FanDuel)

With a rookie running back and Drew Lock standing in for an injured Sam Darnold, the Seahawks have been leaning hard on their defense this season. When you have one of the best in the game, that only makes sense, right?

So far, they’ve surrendered just two touchdowns this season, both passing. Washington’s offense is one of the lowest-rated in the NFL according to PFF (63.4, No. 23). But with Marcus Mariota starting in place of an injured Jayden Daniels, the outlook is not good for the Commanders offense — especially against a dominant defense like Seattle’s.

Now, the Seattle offense has been good despite not having Darnold for most of the season. The passing game is the top-rated unit in the NFL according to PFF (91.1) and should be even better with Darnold back at the helm this week.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba has scored all four of Seattle’s receiving touchdowns this season, one of which was the first touchdown of a game. He recorded the first touchdown in three games last season. Zach Charbonnet did so in five games last season. But with him out, the offense is more likely to turn to Smith-Njigba.

Washington has yet to concede a rushing touchdown but has allowed seven passing scores.

Seattle’s offense has been efficient in its first 15 plays of the game this season (.132 EPA per play). It will likely be even better with Darnold back. Against a Washington team starting its QB2 and weak against the pass, I like Jaxon Smith-Njigba to record the first touchdown of the game.

Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts

• Jonathan Taylor, First Touchdown Scorer (+370, FanDuel)

I’m hesitant to go with Jonathan Taylor in this game because of the reputation Houston’s defense has. But the Texans' defense hasn't been great this season, allowing an average of 28 points per game.

Indianapolis has recorded the first touchdown in both games this season. However, Houston has also allowed just two rushing touchdowns this season. But the Colts have one of the best offensive lines in the game. They do not hesitate to give Taylor the ball in the red zone (10 carries, three touchdowns).

But a major selling point for Taylor is Houston’s offense.

The Texans offense has been somewhat inefficient in its first 15 plays this season, with an EPA per play of -0.011. Indianapolis, by contrast, has been one of the more efficient offenses in its first 15 plays (0.208 EPA per play). So, if the Colts do not manage to score on their first drive of the game, there is a good chance they’ll get another opportunity to score the first touchdown.

If they do, Taylor is the best option.