Updated 2025-2026 NFL MVP Odds: Drake Maye, Matthew Stafford Lead the Race

We are more than halfway through the 2025-2026 season, and Ballislife has the updated MVP leader betting odds!

Photo Credit: Getty Images

Quarterbacks have dominated the NFL Most Valuable Player (MVP) award for the past 12 years, and that doesn't look to be changing soon. In seven of the last 12 years, we've seen dominant MVP-winning performances from Aaron Rodgers, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, and Josh Allen.

While Jackson (+490), Allen (+500), and Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (+600) were among the early favorites to win NFL MVP, two favorites have emerged. To me, the race is wide open this year!

Rams quarterback Matt Stafford and New England Patriots gunslinger Drake Maye (+300) now lead the MVP race. Yes, you read that correctly: second-year pro out of UNC Maye, and 37-year-old Stafford.

Heading into week 11, the NFL MVP race is heating up, and the betting odds will surely shift. While Stafford and Maye lead the pack, let's break down the top five players who are putting up tremendous numbers this season. Here is the current NFL MVP market and FanDuel betting odds for the top five players likely to win the award heading into football Sunday.

The 2025-2026 NFL MVP Current Favorites

Matt Stafford, Los Angeles Rams (+300)

Believe it or not, Matt Stafford has never won the NFL MVP award in his career! That includes stints with both the Detroit Lions and the Los Angeles Rams, as well as a Super Bowl LVI victory over the Bengals.

Are the books disrespecting Stafford? Now in his 17th NFL season at 37 years old, the quarterback is finally on the MVP radar of oddsmakers. Under Sean McVay, the Rams have one of the most potent offenses, boasting the third-best offensive DVOA under Stafford.

Also, it helps that Stafford has elite wideouts in veteran DaVante Adams and Puka Nacua. We've seen how well Stafford and Cooper Kupp connected in the past. Is Nacua the best wide receiver in the NFL?

Leading all NFL quarterbacks with 25 passing touchdowns, Stafford has thrown just two interceptions and is on pace to catch up with his 41-touchdown season in 2021. Boasting the highest rating of his career (114.8), Stafford leads all quarterbacks in pass EPA (82.86).

Will Matt Stafford Win His FIRST NFL MVP Award?

Leading the Rams to a 7-2 record, LA is one of the premier teams in the NFC, and ranks second behind the Seattle Seahawks with a +98 differential. While on a four-game winning streak, Stafford has thrown for 12 touchdowns and zero interceptions over the last two games. With the Rams averaging 37 points over their last three matchups, Stafford has thrown for nearly 750 yards over that span!

Stafford has never finished higher than eighth for an MVP award, and ranks No. 9 all-time in passing yards (62,236) and passing touchdowns (402). If he keeps slinging the football with this potent offense, Stafford can easily win the MVP.

Stafford will need to keep piling on the touchdowns as the Rams face the sixth-toughest schedule. They are set to face division rivals the Seahawks (twice), the Lions, and the Buccaneers.

Drake Maye, New England Patriots (+300)

I have to admit, I was completely wrong about Drake Maye. Drafted by the Patriots No. 3 overall out of UNC in the 2024 NFL Draft, he showed glimpses of what New England could be with a 4-13 record.

Newly hired head coach Mike Vrabel was tasked with developing Maye, and that's been flawless. In his second professional season, Maye is on his way to career-highs in several statistical categories. Through 10 games, he's putting up a 71.7 completion %, 2,555 passing yards, 19 touchdowns, five interceptions, and a quarterback rating of 72.9.

With the ability to scramble and utilize his feet, Maye has recorded 283 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns.

Third among NFL quarterbacks in touchdowns and passing yards, we are talking about a 23-year-old! Not only that, but he's led the Patriots to a seven-game winning streak. It's no fluke; they've come away with victories over the Buffalo Bulls, Atlanta Falcons, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

I know Tom Brady cloned his dog recently, but Maye MIGHT be the next Tom Brady. Over the last five weeks, Maye has thrown for 12 touchdowns and nearly 1,3000 passing yards! Putting up 200+ passing yards in all 10 games this season, that's not too shabby for a sophomore.

Why Drake Maye Is My Mid-Season NFL MVP Winner

It's clear Maye is an emerging talent in the NFL, as evidenced by his ability to beat quarterbacks such as Josh Allen and Baker Mayfield. Not only has Vrabel surrounded Maye with talent such as Stefon Diggs, Kayshon Boutte, Hunter Henry, and Mack Hollins, but he's also brought experience.

If Maye can keep stacking up the passing yards and touchdowns, the Patriots have the easiest remaining schedule in the NFL. The Patriots are the heavy favorites to win (-260) the AFC East over the Buffalo Bills, which no one saw coming.

Ranking top five in total EPA (80.90), EPA/play (.21), pass EPA (79.99), completion percentage (71.68 %), and pass yards (2,555), Maye has a legitimate chance of winning the 2025-2026 Most Valuable Player award. In my opinion, it's his to lose, especially with the remaining matchups against the New York Giants,  Bengals, New York Jets (twice), Miami Dolphins, and Baltimore Ravens (that should be a great game as long as Lamar stays healthy).

He's my mid-season favorite, and is one of the best deep ball passers in the NFL. Despite a high sack rate, Maye is a dynamic playmaker through the air and on the ground and is one of the most accurate passers in the league. While the strength of schedule is a topic of discussion, some of his receivers are having breakout years. Plus, that defense is nasty.

Will A Running back Win The NFL MVP Award?

Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts (+500)

There's no doubt Jonathan Taylor is having a heck of a season for the Indianapolis Colts. The third favorite to win the NFL MVP at +500 odds, this has great value. He's also the heavy favorite to win the 2025-2026 NFL Offensive Player of the Year award (-320).

It's been 12 seasons since former Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson took home the MVP trophy in 2012. While the MVP race is wide open this season, Taylor has a significant chance of winning it as long as the Colts keep rolling.

No one predicted the Colts would lead the AFC and NFL with an 8-2 record midway through the season. Should we talk about former Giants quarterback Daniel Jones? Yeah, he was named and thriving as Indy's starting quarterback after Anthony Richardson went down with an injury. Perhaps Carlie Irsay-Gordon's appearance on the sideline has brought some good luck following the passing of former owner Jim Irsay.

While Taylor has battled injuries over the last few years, his talent never wavered. Not only is he coming off a 1,400+ rushing performance in 2024, but he did that in just 14 games! We are talking about a player who rushed for 1,800+ yards and 18 touchdowns in 2021. Yeah, he's that kind of back.

If healthy, Taylor is on pace to crush his previous records, recording 189 carries, 1,139 rushing yards, and 15 rushing touchdowns in just 10 games. Averaging a career-best 6.0 yards per carry, he's been extremely effective in the backfield and play-action with Jones. While Jones deserves his flowers, we have to give Taylor a considerable amount of credit for his success as a signal-caller.

Can Jonathan Taylor Crush Saquon Barkley's Career-Year Last Season?

A dual-threat in the pass and run games, he's totaled 260 receiving yards and two receiving touchdowns through 10 games.  Tying his longest career rush of 83 yards against the Falcons last week, he's coming off a career performance in Germany.

A driving force in overtime, it was all Taylor. Rushing for three touchdowns for the fourth time this season, he recorded 244 yards on the ground in the Colts' 31-25 victory over the Falcons.  Not only has he been the catalyst for the team's success, but he also leads all NFL running backs in rushing touchdowns and rushing yards.

Four 3-touchdown games is nothing to sniff at; it truly proves just how formidable Taylor is in the offense. Let's be real, he's put up 442 rushing yards over the last three games. At the near top of MVP talks—he's performed at the highest level against top rushing defenses—the Broncos, Rams, Chargers, and Chargers.

When you look at the stats, Taylor leads all running backs in several statistical categories—EPA/rush, total EPA, rush yards (1,139), rushing touchdowns (15), yards per carry, yards after contact, and first down percentage. I mean, the dominance is overwhelming.

The Colts have a demanding remaining schedule and are set to face the Seahawks and Jaguars, two teams that are stingy against the run. While he might get away against the Chiefs and 49ers, they also get the Texans twice.

Although he faces competition from Stafford and Maye, he's averaging nearly 114 rushing yards and 1.5 touchdowns per game. Not only does he have a real chance to win the MVP, but he can also smash Saquon Barkley's rushing records from last season.

Are you in search of further NFL and sports betting promotions? We have compiled a list of the best sports betting offers here. 

Two Future Hall-of-Fame NFL Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs (+600)

Kansas City Chiefs star quarterback Patrick Mahomes is always likely to stay in the NFL MVP conversation for years to come. Along with three Super Bowl rings, Mahomes is a two-time MVP in 2028 and 2022.

The Chiefs are off to a disappointing 5-4 campaign, though they head into week 11 above .500. Despite the team's well-documented struggles, Mahomes is putting up solid numbers.

Through nine games, Mahomes ranks No.5 in passing yards (2,349), No. 7 in passing touchdowns (17), and has thrown just five interceptions on the season. Boasting the second-best quarterback rating in the NFL (74.5), Mahomes has put quite a bit of work in on the ground.

With his legs, he's tallied 285 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns.

Patrick Mahomes Remains A Long Shot In 2025-2026 NFL MVP Race

It's been a rough start for the Chiefs, who faced legal issues and injuries to wide receivers Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy. With a loaded, healthy receiving core, Mahomes might continue to pass the rock with frequent injuries to running backs Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt.

The only downside? The Chiefs have a rigorous schedule ahead, set to face a stingy Broncos defense (twice), the Colts, and the Chargers.

Although Mahomes's touchdowns don't quite stack up to the likes of Stafford and Maye, he's very much still in the Most Valuable Player conversation. This season, he leads the NFL in total EPA (86.26) and remains in the top five in pass EPA, rush EPA, pass yards, rush yards, and rushing touchdowns.

While Mahomes trails in the MVP race, I'm never counting him out. However, he will have to play lights out, especially with a tough schedule ahead.

Throwing for 200+ yards in all but one game against the Eagles, he has thrown for three interceptions in the last two games despite throwing for nearly 550 yards over that span.

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills (+700)

A likely future NFL Hall-of-Fame candidate, Josh Allen remains a long shot at +700 odds to win the 2025-2026 NFL MVP award.

The MVP winner last season, it's extremely difficult to repeat as the winner. We last saw Aaron Rodgers as the last quarterback to win back-to-back MVP awards in 2020 and 2021. Before that, Peyton Manning won consecutive MVPs in 2008 and 2009.

The early favorites to win Super Bowl LX, the Bills, have put up mediocre numbers this season. With a 6-3 record, they sit behind the Patriots, and no longer are they the favorites among sportsbooks to win the AFC East. After a shocking 30-13 road loss to the Miami Dolphins last week, there's a ton of controversy and buzz around the Bills.

Even with six wins, Allen ranks middle of the road in passing yards (2,139), passing touchdowns (15), and five interceptions. On pace for another 25+ passing touchdowns season, he's averaging a career-high in completion percentage (70.3 %) and yards per attempt (8.1).

Josh Allen's MVP Odds Plummet After Week 11 Loss To Miami Dolphins

A dual-threat on the ground and through the air, Allen has put up 311 rushing yards and seven rushing touchdowns, even with running back James Cook.

Overall, the defense has been banged up all season, and so have receivers/tight ends Khalil Shakir and  Dalton Kincaid. It's well known that Allen doesn't have an all-star receiver, which should strengthen his case even more. Perhaps adding Mecole Hardman will help the squad?

The Bills have an average strength of schedule for the remainder of the season, facing the Eagles, Patriots, Buccaneers, and Steelers. Throwing for nearly 580 passing yards and three touchdowns over the last two games, Allen will have to increase those touchdowns. With the MVP race, it's competitive, and there's little room for margin. Plus, the loss against Miami didn't help his case.

Putting last week's loss on himself, Allen took the blame. With that, his MVP odds plummeted. While I won't count Allen out, he ranks well outside the top five in several statistical categories (Pass EPA, EPA per play, success percentage, pass yards, passing touchdowns, and yards per attempt).

Dark Horse NFL MVP Candidate

Jared Goff, Detroit Lions (+2500)

It's a long shot, but I love Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff in this spot. Not only are the Lions a favorite to win Super Bowl LX (+800), but Goff continues to thrive in Dan Campbell's offense.

With former OC Ben Johnson departing for Chicago, it's no secret Campbell has taken over as the Lions' play-caller. If anything, he knows Goff extremely well. He's an aggressive coach, so why not take Goff here?

The Lions are staying afloat with a 6-3 record, which ranks them No. 3 in the NFC behind the Eagles and Seahawks. With losses to the Chiefs, Vikings, and Packers, Goff is having a sneaky solid season.

Overall, he ranks No. 9 in NFL passing yards (2,235), second in passing touchdowns (20), and has thrown just three interceptions this season. Now in his fifth season with Detroit, Goff is averaging a career-best 74 percent completion rate and a rating of 117.7.

Can Jared Goff Lead The Lions To The Super Bowl?

Let's not forget that Goff has some of the best receivers and tight ends in football. That includes Amon-ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, and Sam LaPorta. Not to mention, running backs Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery are heavily used in the passing game.

This Detroit team is fun to watch (at times) and ranks among the top eight in offensive DVOA.

Not having thrown an interception since October 20, Goff has put up five passing touchdowns and 604 passing yards over the last two games! Plus, he ranks in the top five in total EPA, EPA per play, pass EPA, success percentage, and passing touchdowns. If you didn't know, he leads all NFL quarterbacks in completion percentage (73.99%).

Goff is right up there, although the Lions have a brutal schedule ahead. Not only do they face division rival Green Bay Packers, but they also get the Rams, Eagles, Bears, and Steelers.

The Lions are back on top of the NFC North, and Goff is putting together one of the best seasons of his NFL career. While it most likely isn't his year due to stiff competition, he's very much in the conversation with a 7.4 % touchdown rate.