NFL MVP Odds for 2026/27: Josh Allen Opens As Favorite To Win MVP Next Season

Now that the NFL MVP has been named for this season, it is time to do what comes naturally. If you are a fan of Matthew Stafford and the Rams, you celebrate the win. But if you are not, then it’s time to start looking to the future and who could win the NFL MVP in 2026/27. To that end, let’s examine the NFL MVP odds for the 2026 season.

Will we see the first repeat winner since Aaron Rodgers won back-to-back MVPs in 2020 and 2021? Can we expect a quarterback to win for the 14th year in a row? Or could voters break from that tired old trend next season? Is it worth the risk to bet on a non-quarterback?

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NFL MVP Odds for the 2026/27 season

Before we can discuss some possible answers to those questions, let’s review a list of the odds for several of the top candidates. Here are the odds for the top 15 players listed on the NFL MVP betting board at DraftKings:

• Josh Allen +550
• Lamar Jackson +650
• Patrick Mahomes +1000
• Justin Herbert +1000
• Joe Burrow +1000
• Drake Maye +1000
• Dak Prescott +1300
• Matthew Stafford +1400
• Jordan Love +1500
• Caleb Williams +1500
• Brock Purdy +1800
• Jayden Daniels +2000
• Trevor Lawrence +2000
• Jalen Hurts +2200
• Sam Darnold +2800

Since 1957, 31 quarterbacks have won the AP regular-season MVP 48 times. The last time a quarterback didn’t win was back in 2012, when running back Adrian Peterson earned the award when he was still with the Minnesota Vikings.

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Going back to 2000, there were three other non-quarterback winners, all running backs: LaDanian Tomlinson (2006), Shaun Alexander (2005), and Marshall Faulk (2000). In all, the AP NFL MVP has been a running back 18 times. Two defensive players have won, Lawrence Taylor (1986) and Alan Page (1971), but no wide receiver, tight end, or kicker.

So, yes, if you are going to bet on someone to win the NFL MVP next season, you may want to focus on quarterbacks right now. But which one(s)?

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NFL MVP Odds for 2026-27: Two Strategies for Picking NFL MVP who to Bet On

History tells us we should target players on teams that meet certain qualifications:

• Most MVPs come from a team seeded No. 1 or No. 2 in their conference. They rarely come from a 3-seed or lower.
• Only one MVP came from a team that failed to make the playoffs.
• Since 2000, nearly every MVP has been on a team with 11+ wins and has won their division.

The players at the top of betting boards come from teams that we already know fit the description. If you want to bet on one of them, it’s a good idea. Chances are, his odds will not change much from where they are now until a point during the season when it is obvious the player is one of the top contenders.

But when that player’s odds start to make significant shifts down, they are only going to get lower with each passing week.

Pay attention to long shots when betting on the MVP race

Of course, the usual contenders are often not the only contenders. There always seems to be a team or two that rises faster than anyone expected and becomes a contender; just look at the Seahawks (opened at +6000) and the Patriots (opened at +12500). Matthew Stafford opened at +5000. His Rams opened at +2200 to win Super Bowl 60.

Identify a team with a shot to get out of the cellar and become a contender, and that team's quarterback will be an MVP contender worth betting on.

Looking to get a head start on an NFL MVP bet for next season? Ballislife has all future team and player bets on our website.

NFL MVP Odds: Our Pick(s)

• Patrick Mahomes +1000

Of all the usual suspects, Mahomes is in a great position to make an MVP case for himself next season. That is, assuming he recovers well enough from knee surgery to start the season. But if he does and he guides the Chiefs back to the top of the division/conference, he will have probably had the kind of season voters like.

• Tyler Shough +10000

As far as long shots go, I like Shough’s chances better than anyone’s. He had a rough start once he got his chance. But as he learned Kellen Moore’s offense and adjusted to playing in the NFL, his game improved, and the Saints won some games.

In Dak Prescott’s first full season with Kellen Moore as the offensive coordinator, he threw for a league high 4,902 yards. Dallas went 8-8 that year, so he wasn’t in the MVP conversation, but if Shough can have a similar season but win 12-14 games, he’ll win MVP. With the talent on that team already, it is possible.

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