NFL Best Bets: New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks Odds & Picks (Sept. 9)

For the last 13 seasons, the new NFL season has opened on a Thursday, but not this time. With a different game scheduled for Thursday (or Friday, depending on your perspective) in Australia, the NFL moved the regular-season opener to Wednesday, featuring last year’s Super Bowl teams, the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks.

(Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images)

The defending champs have dominated Super Bowl rematches in the regular season after their win. More on that in a moment, but let’s take a look at the betting line for the Patriots vs. Seahawks first on Sept. 9.

Betting Odds for New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks, NFL Week 1 (Sept. 9)

Here is the betting line for the New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks with odds via FanDuel:

• Spread: New England +3.5 (-118) | Seattle -3.5 (-104)
• Moneyline: New England +152 | Seattle -180
• Total: O/U 44.5 (-110/-110)

There isn’t a ton of regular-season history between these two franchises. Since their first meeting in 1977, they have played 19 regular-season games. Seattle leads the all-time series 11-8 SU and 10-8-1 ATS, with wins in the last four (3-0-1 ATS). The Over is 10-8 and is on a six-game streak.

That suggests a competitive game, unlike Super Bowl 60, which the Seahawks pretty much dominated. When the spread is as low as this one is, the games are often pretty tight. However, history shows these games can go either way. Since 1999, teams favored by 3.5 points went on to cover in 325 of 656 games—just 49.5% of the time.

On one hand, history says bet on the Seahawks. After all, they’ve won the last few times they played the Patriots, and they’re the defending champs. But on the other hand, history and a much larger sample size tell us we should take the Patriots and the points. Let’s take a look at the matchup and see which angle we agree with.

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Patriots vs. Seahawks: Preview and Picks

New England Patriots Preview

If you just look at the final score (29-13) of Super Bowl 60, it looks like the Patriots didn’t put up much of a fight. But when you take a look at the box score and see that it was just 9-0 at the half and 12-0 heading into the fourth quarter, it looks like a pretty close game. However, the box score doesn’t tell the whole story.

New England couldn’t move the ball on offense. Through three quarters, the Patriots had just 78 yards of offense, 60 passing and a meager 18 yards rushing. They turned the ball over once. Drake Maye was sacked six times. The score through three quarters was close, but the game was actually kind of ugly. So, why should we think tonight’s outcome could be different?

New England’s defense did a stellar job in that game, especially since it got little to no help from the offense. While the unit lost some depth in the offseason, the starting group is largely intact; the unit should be just as good if not better. But did they address their offensive issues?

Protection was an issue and they signed Alijah Vera-Tucker and drafted Caleb Lomu in the first round. They also got Maye some serious upgrades in the wide receiver room with A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs. But they’ll need Rhamondre Stevenson to really step up in the run game with TreVeyon Henderson out.

In short, the defense was solid in the Super Bowl and should be just as good tonight. If the additions made to the offense pan out, we should see the Patriots move the ball a bit more as well.

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Seattle Seahawks Preview

Seattle was not supposed to be that good last season. Not that they were supposed to be bad. Good things were expected of the defense; maybe not the domination we sometimes saw. Sam Darnold was certainly not supposed to play like an MVP candidate, but he did. So, the question that the world wants answered now is: Can they do it again?

On the defensive end, absolutely. The core of last year’s group is back. They added some depth in key areas during the offseason. If anything, the defense could be even better. But what about the offense? That, I’m much less certain about.

The run game was crucial to the offense last season as it helped set Sam Darnold up for success in the play-action passing game. With the Patriots defense clamping down on the passing game for much of the Super Bowl, success rushing the ball was crucial. With Zach Charbonnet out, Kenneth Walker III had to carry the load and rushed for 135 yards. But he is now with the Kansas City Chiefs.

Zach Charbonnet is still out with an injury, which means it will be up to first-round pick Jadarian Price to carry the load. If he can pick up where he left off at Notre Dame, the run game may not miss a beat. But he was also the second guy option in a platoon with the Fighting Irish, not the lead back.

Seattle's offensive line is ranked No. 15 in the NFL heading into the season, according to PFF.com. The same group from last season is back, and since offensive lines often get better with time, this group could be solid. It wasn’t bad last season; it just wasn’t great either.

Patriots vs. Seahawks: My Picks

Patriots +3.5 (-118)

As the defending champs playing at home, the Seahawks should be favored. But a small spread like 3.5 points, typically indicates a close game is expected that either team could win. But that hasn’t stopped bettors from getting behind Seattle on 84% of moneyline tickets.

A high percentage of tickets often means the public is backing a team. But when the handle doesn’t match, sharps are backing the other team. In this case, 61% of the handle is on Seattle and 39% on the Patriots. However, 53% of spread tickets and 58% of the handle are on the Patriots.

I’m taking the Patriots and the points, because I don’t think the Seahawks have improved while the Patriots have. If anything, Seattle got weaker after losing Kenneth Walker III to the Chiefs.

Walker and the defense are why they won Super Bowl 60. In the first half, Sam Darnold struggled, completing just nine of 22 passes for 88 yards while Walker kept the ball moving with 94 yards on 14 carries. He wasn’t as productive in the second half, but with turnovers giving the offense short field (Seattle had scoring drives of 37, 30, and 65 yards in the second half), he didn’t need to be.

In the end, Walker was the driving force behind the offense in the Super Bowl, accounting for 161 of Seattle’s 335 total yards. Darnold completed 19 of 38 passes for just 202 yards and a touchdown.

Rookie running back Jadarian Price could be fine, but I’m not counting on a rookie running back leading the way in his first start. College success doesn’t necessarily mean success in the NFL right away. Bijan Robinson had just 56 rushing yards in his debut in 2023; in the same season, Jahmyr Gibbs ran for 42 yards in his debut.

Ashton Jeanty managed just 38 rushing yards in Week 1 against this Patriots defense last season.

Seattle has the defense in place to keep the game close, but without the running game, I can’t back them to win outright. However, I do not think the Pats can run away with it. It will be a close game; either team will have a shot to win. Hence, recommending the Patriots and the points over the moneyline.

Under 44.5 (-110, FanDuel)

Super Bowl 60 was a defensive battle for three quarters with an explosion of offense in the fourth quarter. That was with both offenses operating at their best in the final game of the season. This time, it will be the first game of the season and the first action most of the starters have seen since last February.

Offenses don’t just magically get in sync; it takes time, practice, and reps against real competition. Defense is inherently more physical. While defenses need to be in sync, dominant physical performances can make an impact too. That's what will happen here. Both defenses will play well and make it hard for the other’s offense to be productive, keeping the final score low.

Patriots, 1st Half Winner (+150, FanDuel)

Kenneth Walker getting on track in the run game was the catalyst for the Seahawks' Super Bowl 60 win. They will not have that advantage tonight. Yes, Jadarian Price could be fine. But I don’t think a rookie running back will dominate right out of the gate against a solid defense like New England. Without a legitimate run game, the play-action pass will not work, and Sam Darnold is not a great dropback passer.

As a result, the Seattle offense will struggle in the first half. Their defense will keep the game close. However, New England’s offseason additions should spark a stronger first-half offense and give the Patriots a halftime lead.