Monday Night Football Player Prop Bets (Sept. 14): Broncos vs. Chiefs Betting Odds & Picks

NFL Week 1 has not disappointed. Sunday's slate was filled with high-scoring affairs and upsets. Monday Night Football has arrived, which will feature an AFC West divisional matchup between the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs. In this article, you will find my best player prop bets for Monday's marquee matchup.

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Monday night, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs (0-0) will face Bo Nix and the Broncos (0-1). Tonight marks the season debut of Mahomes, who suffered a torn ACL and LCL in Week 15 of last season. As a result, the Chiefs missed the playoffs after ten straight appearances, and the Broncos made an extended run. Ultimately, Denver lost to the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship game which Nix missed due to a fractured ankle.

Both quarterbacks are back in action as both squads will take part in a competitive division. Not only are the Broncos 3-0 against the Chiefs since 2024, but they boast a +48 point differential over that span.

Overall, the Chiefs are 6-4 SU vs. the Broncos since 2021, but Denver is 7-3 ATS in those 10 games.

Denver's roster doesn't look entirely different, although the team traded for wide receiver Jaylen Waddle to provide Nix with another weapon alongside Courtland Sutton. In addition, Denver retained its core by re-signing running back J.K Dobbins, along with Ja'Quan McMillian, Justin Strnad, and linebacker Alex Singleton.

AFC Division Rivals: Broncos vs. Chiefs

The Broncos finished atop the AFC West in 2025-26 with a 14-3 record. Despite falling short of Super Bowl expectations, they were considered a top-five team defensively. Last season, they ranked No. 5 in defensive DVOA, but sat No. 15 in offensive DVOA per FTN. This year, head coach Sean Payton has the pieces to attack the field in a variety of ways. New offensive coordinator Davis Webb brings a ton of development promise for Nix as he was a former NFL quarterback.

Conversely, the Chiefs finished with a 6-11 record last season and ended the year on a six-game losing streak. Not only did Mahomes miss three weeks of action, but also Isiah Pacheco (RB), Xavier Worthy (WR), Trent McDuffie (CB), Josh Simmons (LT), among others, missed significant time.

Head coach Andy Reid remains at the helm as well as Steve Spagnuolo (defensive coordinator) and Eric Bieniemy (offensive coordinator). Free agency wasn't kind to Kansas City, as they lost McDuffie (Rams), Jaylen Watson (Rams), Isiah Pacheco (Lions, IR), Bryan Cook (Bengals) and others in the offseason. However, Kansas City made a splash in free agency by signing running back Kenneth Walker III, who rushed for 135 yards in Super Bowl LX. They bolstered the defense by adding safety Alohi Gilman and defensive tackle Khyiris Tonga.

In addition, top re-signings included Travis Kelce (TE), and wide receiver Tyquan Thornton. This year, Mahomes will open the season with a healthy receiving corps that features Rice as WR1 and Worthy as WR2. As of Monday, the Chiefs have the sixth-best odds on DraftKings to win the Super Bowl (+1600), while the Broncos have the 10th-best odds (+1900).

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Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs Odds for Monday,  Sept. 14 (DraftKings)

MONEYLINE

• DENVER BRONCOS: +110
• KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: -130

SPREAD

• DENVER BRONCOS: +2.5 (-112)
• KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: -2.5 (-108)

 OVER/UNDER (TOTAL)

• OVER: 43.5 (-108)
• UNDER: 43.5 (-112)

BEST ODDS FOR DENVER BRONCOS VS. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

• BetMGM has the best odds, favoring the Chiefs by 2.0 points (-108)
• DraftKings offers the best odds at -112, tabbing the Broncos as +2.5-point underdogs.
• BetMGM and Caesars currently offer the best odds for the game totals. BetMGM offers the best value for the under (43.5) at -108 and Caesars offers the best value for the over (43.5) at -110 odds.

Odds Are Current As of Sept. 14 at 1 P.M. ET

If you're betting on the Monday Night Football game between the Broncos and Chiefs, welcome!

Denver and Kansas City will kick off at 8:15 p.m. ET at Arrowhead Stadium. In addition, the matchup will air on ESPN.

Let's take a look at my best player prop bets for Monday, Sept. 14. My picks include plays for ...

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NFL MNF Predictions for Monday, Sept. 14:  Broncos vs. Chiefs

Player Prop Bets

• Patrick Mahomes OVER 13.5 Rushing Yards (-113 FanDuel)
• Harrison Butker OVER 1.5 Field Goals Made (-140 Fanatics)
• Bo Nix OVER 21.5 Passing Completions (-110 Fanatics)

Patrick Mahomes OVER 13.5 Rushing Yards

Today, I'm locking in Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes to record over 13.5 rushing yards against the Broncos. Priced at -113 odds on FanDuel, a wager of $20 would payout a total of $37.70.

Yes, I know Mahomes will return to the field for the first time since tearing his ACL and LCL. There will be questions about his mobility and so forth. However, this is the same quarterback who notably delivered with an ankle sprain in Super Bowl LVII. He's considered one of the NFL's toughest quarterbacks.

Last season, the Broncos had one of the most lethal defenses in the NFL, including an elite pass rush. That said, Denver ranked second in quarterback pressure rate (30.5%) and ran blitzes 28.5% of plays.

It's safe to say the Broncos defensive line will be pressuring Mahomes. A unit led by Nik Bonitto, the d-line remains intact with Jonah Elliss and Zach Allen. The biggest question mark is Jonathan Cooper, who remains on the NFL Commissioner's Exempt list.

Still, the 2025-26 Broncos led the NFL with 68 single-season sacks, which marked a franchise record. In November 2025, Mahomes was sacked three times for 27 yards and rushed for three yards. November 2024, he rushed for 19 yards against Denver.

In 15 career games against the Broncos, Mahomes is averaging 13.3 rushing yards per game and 3.5 rush attempts. Through 126 regular-season NFL games, Mahomes averages 21.2 rushing yards per game and 5.6 YPC. So yes, this prop line seems awfully low for a quarterback known to move the chains with his legs.

If we look at the stats, Mahomes very much cleared this line in 10 of 14 games last season. In those 10 games, Mahomes rushed for an average of 40.7 yards and we saw him run for 50-plus yards against in four games alone!

Final Broncos vs. Chiefs Betting Prediction: Patrick Mahomes OVER 13.5 Rushing Yards (-113 FanDuel)

That said, I'm expecting Mahomes to run less with Walker III in the backfield, who's the most talented back the Chiefs have had since the Jamaal Charles/ Kareem Hunt days. Either way, I don't fully trust the Chiefs offensive line. Not only did ESPN rank the offensive line outside of the top 15, but they also ranked the interior defensive line No. 15.

• I'm taking Patrick Mahomes to record over 13.5 rushing yards tonight. Despite his injury last season, he rushed for 422 yards on 64 carries. Plus, he boasted a career-high of 6.6 yards per carry. Mahomes is elite when he scrambles and is a master at escaping pressure, which should come in handy against a top-tier defense. Plus, Mahomes moved the chains quite well with 27 first downs with his legs. It doesn't take Mahomes much to move the chains, he averages a longest career rush of 33.0 yards. Oftentimes, we see him rush anywhere from 15 to 60-plus yards per game.  Last season, the Broncos gave up 23.3 rush yards, 4.9 carries, and 3.7 yards per carry to quarterbacks per game. Lock this in before the line moves.

Harrison Butker OVER 1.5 Field Goals Made

For my second best-bet, I locked in Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker to record over 1.5 field goals made. While he's been under scrutiny in the news, Butker is one of the NFL's best kickers. Although the odds are a tad juiced at -140 odds on Fanatics, a $20 wager would payout a total of $34.29.

In 2025-26, Butker made 33 of 38 kicks with an 86.8% field goal rate. He was accurate, hitting 9-of-9 field goals of 20 to 29 yards. In addition, his longest field goal of 59 yards, while he went 9-of-11 from 40 to 49, 5-of-8 from 50-59 and failed to hit a 60-plus-yard field goal. Mind you, that was on a sub-.500 team and without Mahomes for three games.

In fact, Butker's 38 field goal attempts ranked top five in the NFL. Imagine this offense among a healthy Chiefs team?

2023 was one of Butker's best seasons in which he went 33 of 35 for a 94.3% accuracy rate. Hitting a 60-yard field goal, Butker was not only one of the most accurate NFL kickers, but he also finished a perfect 12/12 from 40 to 60 yards.

Throughout his NFL career, Butker is averaging 1.83 field goals per game and has a solid 88.4% accuracy rate. Last season, he averaged 1.94, and has soared over that 1.5 average mark for three straight seasons.

As mentioned previously, we know Denver possesses a dangerous defense. Clearing this line in two of the last three outings against the Broncos, we've seen Butker average 2.3 field goals in 18 career games against Denver! Plus, his accuracy against the Broncos has been exceptional (95.7%).

Final Broncos vs. Chiefs Betting Prediction: Harrison Butker OVER 1.5 Field Goals Made

We are talking about a Broncos defense that gave up just 18.3 points per game last season. That said, Denver allowed the second-most field goals overall (27) and 2.18 field goals per game.

• I'm taking Harrison Butker to record over 1.5 made field goals tonight. He's cleared this line in two of the last three games against Denver and finished out last season kicking over 1.5 in 7 of the final 10 games. Overall, the Broncos allowed the second-highest field goal percentage (94.9%) in the NFL, and allowed the most 30-39 made field goals out of any team. This is a Chiefs team that's averaging 18.7 points per game against the Broncos over the last 10 games. I'm expecting another elite defensive season for Denver, and Kansas City is averaging 2.1 field goals made per game vs. Denver over the last 10 meetings. This is a strong player prop today, lock this in. 

Bo Nix OVER 21.5 Passing Completions

For my third-best bet, I locked in Broncos quarterback Bo Nix to record over 21.5 passing completions Monday night against the Chiefs. This player prop is priced at -110 on Fanatics, meaning a $20 wager would payout a total of $38.18.

Nix didn't repeat his rookie year, but finished with 3,931 passing yards for 25 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. In 17 games, he completed 388 completed passes on 612 attempts for a 63.5% completion rate.

Statistically speaking, Nix wasn't included among top-tier quarterbacks and ranked No. 22 in average time to throw (2.73). However, he endured just 22 sacks. In fact, ESPN ranked the Broncos as the No. 1 offensive line this year behind Ben Powers, Garrett Bolles, Luke Wattenberg, and others.

I'm confident in this offensive line this year, and Nix tied Matthew Stafford for the third-most completions in the NFL last season with 388. Although his completion percentage can improve, he averaged 22.8 passing completions per game and 36.0 passing attempts in 2025-26.

Nix is a perfect fit in Sean Payton's system, and possesses speed and athleticism other quarterbacks don't have. His depth isn't fantastic, but is rather a quarterback who gets the ball out quickly with short throws under Payton's scheme. As Payton stated, it's all about "pace" and rhythm" for Nix.

I do believe the addition of Jaylen Waddle should boost this offense tremendously. Plus, Courtland Sutton is back and healthy.

I do believe this is a strong play given the fact that Nix has soared over this line in four career games against the Chiefs, averaging 24.5 completions and 33.5 pass attempts against Kansas City.

Final Broncos vs. Chiefs Betting Prediction: Bo Nix OVER 21.5 Passing Completions (-110 Fanatics)

We have to remember that the Chiefs ranked No. 21 in pass defense DVOA and safety Chamarri Connor is out for tonight's meeting. I do have some questions about this defense, especially after the departure of McDuffie to the Rams. Despite having Chris Jones and George Karlaftis back in the lineup, I do question the secondary.

• I'm taking Bo Nix to record over 21.5 completions tonight. With J.K Dobbins back and healthy Denver may deploy more of a run game and balance West Coast offense, but even so,  Nix cleared this line in 12 of 18 games last season. In fact, he soared over this line from mid-November to Christmas 2025. Overall, the Chiefs allowed an average of 20.1 completions to quarterbacks last season and a pocket time of 2.60. If the Broncos especially use running back RJ Harvey, this is a strong pick for tonight.