Best NFL Player Props for Week 4 Featuring C.J. Stroud, Bo Nix, and Jordan Love (Oct. 4)

I wouldn’t say that we know everything we need to know about the NFL’s 32 teams. But as the season heads into Week 4, some tendencies and patterns have emerged over the first three weeks. With this knowledge, we can make more informed decisions about which NFL player props to bet on this week.

(Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images)

Now, it's only been three weeks. Yes, we can see patterns and tendencies, but the sample size is relatively small. Good coaches will correct mistakes and avoid predictable patterns while still doing what their team does best. So, nothing can be considered a given at this point.

With that in mind, here are my top NFL player prop picks for Sunday’s Week 4 NFL games:

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NFL Player Prop Bets for Sunday, Oct. 4

Dallas Cowboys vs. Houston Texans

C.J. Stroud, Over 244.5 Passing Yards at -113 (FanDuel)

After watching C.J. Stroud and the Houston offense struggle against a poor Indianapolis Colts defense last week, it's hard to have faith they’ll play well this week against a poor Dallas Cowboys defense. But it does appear to be a favorable matchup for the home team Texans.

The Dallas defense ranks No. 13 against the pass, allowing 207.3 yards per game, but that number is misleading since Dallas also gives up almost 180 yards per game on the ground. Despite running the ball 37 times against them, Jaxon Dart still had 230 yards passing. Washington had only 207, but they were also forced to play with their QB2 for a half. Lamar Jackson only threw for 186 yards last week, but the Ravens ran for 192.

Dallas has struggled to put pressure on opposing quarterbacks so far, registering just two sacks in 84 pass attempts. Both came against Dart in Week 1 but resulted in a total loss of just one yard. Of those 84 attempts, 72.6% of them went for completions, the second-highest rate in the NFL.

Stroud’s play has not been encouraging since he went 26-38 for 274 yards against the Buffalo Bills in Week 1. He threw for 353 yards against the Bengals but completed only 54.6% of his passes. Against the Colts last week, he completed 59.3% for just 167.

But he has been without his favorite target, Nico Collins, for the last two weeks, and Collins is set to return to action today. The only problem could be a focus on the run game since Dallas is so bad at defending the run. But the Texans' run game hasn’t been great either, so it wouldn’t make sense for them to put much focus on the run.

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Denver Broncos vs. San Francisco 49ers

Bo Nix, Under 226.5 Passing Yards at -115 (bet365)

Bo Nix and the Denver passing game have not been good so far this season. Through Week 3, the Broncos' passing game ranks No. 29 in the league, averaging 194 yards per game.

Through Week 3, the team is calling pass plays at almost the same rate as last season, so it is not a matter of play calling. Whether it’s receivers not getting open or Nix not throwing well, the passing game has struggled to get on track. It looked great against Jacksonville in Week 2, when Nix completed 71% of his passes for 288 yards (9.3 yards per attempt). But they only got 131 yards against the Chiefs, and Nix completed just 50% of his passes last week against the Rams (186 yards).

Nix’s numbers against the Chiefs are especially telling because they point to a disturbing trend in his career. In the 17 regular-season starts he’s had on the road, Nix has thrown for more than 226.5 yards in just four games (two in 2024 and two last season). He has averaged 199.5 passing yards per game on the road.

It doesn’t help that he’ll be facing a solid San Francisco 49ers defense that has held teams to 207.3 yards per game (tied for No. 13). The unit held Matthew Stafford and the Rams' high-powered passing game to 155 yards in Week 1. They held Malik Willis (Dolphins) to 197 yards in Week 2 but gave up 280 to Jacoby Brissett and the Cardinals last week.

My only concern is that the Broncos may feel the need to pass more, either due to injuries or because they fall behind and have to play catch-up. But while the 49ers may have the league's most dynamic offense, the Denver defense is solid. It will keep the Broncos in the game and help the offense stay balanced.

Green Bay Packers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Jordan Love, Over 33.5 Pass Attempts at -113 (DraftKings)

The Green Bay Packers had a fairly balanced offensive attack last season, passing on roughly 52% of their plays and rushing on 48%. But without Josh Jacobs in the backfield, the run game has suffered. It doesn’t help that the offensive line has been hit hard with injuries, too. Aaron Banks and Jacob Monk have both been ruled out today, and Jager Burton is questionable.

It is doubtful the running game will find much success against a Tampa Bay defense that has held teams to 76 yards per game on the ground so far this season. So, chances are probably good that the offense will remain heavy on the pass. Through Week 3, the Packers have thrown on 73.33% of their offensive plays.

That percentage led to Jordan going 21-for-42 for 387 yards in Week 1. Week 2 was more of an overall struggle for the Packers as Jordan went 16-for-29 for 145 yards. But last week, in the loss to Atlanta, he went 28-for-53 for 312 yards.

Green Bay has averaged 60 offensive plays per game this season. The NFL average is 61.5, and the average for Tampa Bay’s opponents has been 57.7 and 55 per game at home. If the Packers continue to be pass-heavy like they have been and throw 70% of the time, that will mean Love will have 38-39 pass attempts.

Jordan Love, Over 238.5 Passing Yards at -112 (DraftKings)

As for his yardage total, the Bucs defense is allowing 207.3 passing yards per game. But that number is a little misleading because they held Kyler Murray to 168 yards last week. Joe Burrow threw for 254 in Week 1, and Deshaun Watson had 238 in Week 2. Love is averaging 281 yards per game despite only throwing for 145 against the Jets.

With the playmakers at his disposal and the sheer volume of passing plays the Packers will call, he’ll sail past his passing-yards total today. Lock in these Jordan Love player prop bets.