NFL Preseason Best Bets: Panthers vs. Cardinals Hall of Fame Game Odds & Picks

The notion will sound crazy to most people, but betting on NFL preseason games — like tonight’s NFL Hall of Fame Game between the Carolina Panthers and Arizona Cardinals — is not a bad idea. I know it sounds crazy, but it’s true.

You can’t count on any team to put its best foot forward. Most of the time they don’t care about winning or even trying to win if a game is within reach. But it is also the only time of year when head coaches will tell us what they plan to do. We just have to pay attention to their press conferences.

(Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

There is more to it, of course, but before we go over some preseason betting tips and my pick(s), let’s take a look at the betting line for tonight’s game:

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NFL Hall of Fame Game Best Bets: Carolina Panthers vs. Arizona Cardinals Odds

Here is the betting line for tonight’s Hall of Fame Game with odds via DraftKings:

• Spread: Carolina -1.5 (-105) | Arizona +1.5 (-115)
• Moneyline: Carolina -118 | Arizona -102
• Total: 34.5 (-115/-105)

Betting trends are worth noting for this game because there are patterns to how these games have played out from a wagering perspective. For example, underdogs have gone 7-4 SU and 8-2-1 ATS since 2013 (no game in 2016 and 2020). Dogs have also won the last five outright.

Even though the total is pretty low, many bettors gravitate to the UNDER since preseason games, especially the HOF Game, are notoriously low scoring. But the OVER went 4-0 in the last four, but the UNDER was 7-2 in the nine games prior.

With teams more concerned with avoiding injuries than winning, it can be challenging to make picks for preseason games like Thursday night's contest. However, there are certain tips that can help bettors make an informed decision when putting money down on preseason games.

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NFL Preseason Betting Tips

You should always do your research before betting on any game, but especially before betting on preseason games. Why? Because you are apt to discover some pretty useful information. With that in mind, here are a few research tips for betting on the preseason:

Take A Look At Depth Charts

• Superstars and starters will seldom see time in the preseason and especially not in the first game. Coaches tend to use the first one to take a look at rookies and second/third/fourth-string players. They don’t want to risk injury to someone they’ll need in Week 1, but it is good to see who might be able to fill in should someone go down. More experienced depth charts are more likely to play better in the preseason.

Who is in the QB Room?

• More often than not, QB1 is not going to play in the preseason, especially not in the first game. Those with QB competitions will split reps, with the leader getting more reps in Game 2. As for starters, if we see them, it will be for a couple of drives or maybe the first quarter in the second preseason game. Don’t bank on seeing any of them in Preseason Week 1. But if there is a competent backup in the room, the offense may function reasonably well.

Pay Attention to Press Conferences

• During the regular season, head coaches are often pretty cagey when it comes to answering questions about how they plan to approach the next game. But in the preseason, since winning isn't considered too important, they’ll often share details that can help bettors make informed decisions (e.g., playing time for starters/superstars, etc.).

Know Your Coaching Staffs

• Some coaches put more importance on winning preseason games than others. When John Harbaugh was coaching the Baltimore Ravens, his team went undefeated in preseason games from 2016-2022 (23-0). But then you have coaches like Raheem Morris (Atlanta), who is 5-12 as a head coach and 0-5 with his current team, Zac Taylor (Cincinnati), who is 4-14, and Dan Campbell (Detroit), who is 5-10. Dave Canales (Panthers) is 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS in preseason games, and tonight will be Mike LaFleur’s debut as an NFL head coach. New head coaches, who are usually taking over franchises with recent losing histories, will often try to give fans something to cheer about in the first preseason games.

NFL Preseason Best Bets: Panthers vs. Cardinals Analysis

Teams in the Hall of Fame Game play an additional preseason game, so we can expect to see few, if any, starters. Both teams have ruled out their QB1s (Bryce Young and Jacoby Brissett). Kenny Pickett is starting for Carolina and rookie Carson Beck for the Cardinals. Fans should not expect to see Cardinals rookie running back Jeremiyah Love, either.

I like Carson Beck a little more in this game than Pickett. He has had more recent success as a starting quarterback, coming off his final season in college, where he started in the national championship game. It helps that he’ll be working with an offensive-minded head coach.

First-year head coaches love to make a good impression in their first game. So, I wouldn’t be shocked to see LeFleur let Carson Beck play a little and see what he can do. Jacoby Brissett is QB1 and Gardner Minshew QB2, but Beck could very well be the future franchise QB.

However, I’m more excited to see what Haynes King does when he gets his shot behind center for the Panthers. King is an athletic, dual-threat who is just as likely to take off and make a big run as he is to sling the ball downfield.

As of Thursday morning, bettors were backing the Cardinals with just 42% of spread tickets (+1) at BetMGM, but with 82% of the handle. However, more were taking the Panthers to win outright (55% of moneyline tickets and 59% of the handle).

Hall of Fame Game Bets: My Pick(s)

• UNDER 34.5 (-105, DraftKings)

The OVER went 4-0 in the last four Hall of Fame Games. But the Panthers have been terrible in the preseason under Dave Canales. They scored just two touchdowns in the preseason last year and five the season before (four in one game). With Kenny Pickett getting the start tonight with a roster of players that will likely not make the final cut, don’t expect much.

I’m a little more excited to see what the Cardinals do. But with a rookie head coach and a rookie quarterback, I’d temper my expectations for their offense as well.

• Carolina -1.5 (-105, DraftKings)

I’m taking the Panthers to win and cover for one reason — Haynes King. He is an athletic, dual-threat quarterback who will be encouraged to take off running when his blocking breaks down. After watching King make quite a few plays with his legs at Georgia Tech last season, I’m excited to see him do the same tonight.

He'll make a few big plays in the second half that will put the Panthers in position to win the game.

• Arizona Cardinals 125+ rushing yards (+135, DraftKings)

Carolina was not a great run defense last season. With its best defenders seeing little to no time tonight, I don’t expect it to defend the run well tonight. With a rookie quarterback starting the game, I can see the Cardinals making a solid effort to establish the run.