NFL Best Bets Sunday Night Football: Buccaneers vs Rams Picks & Odds November 23 (Week 12)

Sunday night football is almost here, and there's a highly anticipated matchup featuring the Buccaneers and Rams!

(Photo by Dustin Satloff/Getty Images)

Tonight, we get to witness two of the hottest quarterbacks, Baker Mayfield and Matthew Stafford, face off! Leading the MVP race, it's the first time these fiery quarterbacks will face each other!

Set to take place in LA, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-4, 4-2 away) will square off against the Los Angeles Rams (8-2, 4-1 home).  Featuring two top teams in the NFC, the Rams lead the NFC, along with the Eagles. At 8-2, Stafford and company are now the FAVORITE to win Super Bowl LX along with the Eagles.

The Rams continue to roll, as they've won five straight games against the Seahawks, 49ers, Saints, Jaguars, and Ravens. Boasting one of the NFL's top offenses, Matthew Stafford remains the favorite to win NFL MVP at +125 odds. Make no mistake, this team is led by one of the most elite coaches in Sean McVay—a coach who led the Rams to a Super Bowl LVI victory over the Bengals.

RELATED: WEEK 12 BEST BETS

Sunday Night Football: Buccaneers vs Rams

Led by Mayfield, the Buccaneers are on life support as they deal with multiple injuries to Bucky Irving and Bredeson. Not to mention several members of the defense are banged up, which includes Haason Reddick and Jamel Dean. Even if Chris Godwin Jr. returns today, I would imagine he'll be on a limited snap count.

It's the first time these two teams have matched up since 2022, and the Rams are 8-2 against the Buccaneers in their last 10 head-to-head matchups. While Tampa Bay is 1-3 in its last four games, it has recently suffered tough losses to AFC East rivals Buffalo and New England. Either way, we are in for a SHOWDOWN tonight!

9-1-1 ATS against LA since 2012, can the Buccaneers cover as 7-point spread underdogs on the road tonight? Or will the Rams cover the spread for the fifth time in six games? In this article, you will find my three best bets, player prop picks, and touchdown predictions for the Sunday,  Nov. 23 matchup between the Buccaneers and Rams.

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NFL WEEK 12 BETS: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Los Angeles Rams FanDuel Odds For November 23

MONEYLINE

• TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: +290
• LA RAMS: -360

SPREAD

• TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: +7 (-110)
• LA RAMS: -7 (-110)

OVER/UNDER (TOTAL)

• OVER: 49.5 (-108)
• UNDER: 49.5 (-112)

BEST ODDS FOR TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS VS LOS ANGELES RAMS

• DraftKings has the best odds, favoring the Los Angeles Rams by seven points (-108)
• The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will get their sixth road game this NFL season.  Caesars offers the best odds at -107, tabbing the Buccaneers as 7-point underdogs.
• DraftKings and FanDuel currently offer the best odds for the game totals.  DraftKings offers the best value for the under (49.5) at -108, while FanDuel offers the best value for the over (49.5) at -108 odds.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Los Angeles Rams Injury Report

BUCCANEERS

1. Bucky Irving, RB: OUT
2. Ben Bredeson, LG: OUT
3. Haason Reddick, LB: OUT
4. Jamel Dean, CB: OUT
5. Chris Godwin Jr., WR: QUESTIONABLE

RAMS

1. Xavier Smith, WR/PR: QUESTIONABLE
2. Tutu Atwell, WR: IR
3. David Quessenberry, LT: QUESTIONABLE
4. Quentin Lake, NB: IR
5. Rob Havenstein, RT: IR

NFL BEST BETS SUMMARY

• Matthew Stafford OVER 255.5 Passing Yards (-120 Fanatics)
• Kyren Williams Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-145 FanDuel)
• Sterling Shepard OVER 17.5 Receiving Yards (-112 FanDuel)

NFL Predictions for Monday, November 23, Week 12: Buccaneers vs Rams

 Player Prop Bets Tonight: Matthew Stafford

GP: 10  | CMP: 223 | Attempts: 338 | CMP: 66 % | Passing Yards: 2,557 | Passing TD: 27 | Pass Long: 88

• OVER 255.5 Passing Yards (-120 Fanatics)

For Sunday night, I placed one unit on Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford to record over 255.5 passing yards.

Is it possible that Stafford is aging in reverse? At 38 years old, he's having one of the best seasons of his NFL career and is currently leading the MVP conversation. And there's no question this Rams offense is THRIVING under head coach Sean McVay. In fact, they rank second in offensive DVOA.

A leader in the NFL with 2,557 passing yards, Stafford has been lights out. Last week, the defense spoke for itself, intercepting Sam Darnold four times. As a result, Stafford had just 130 passing yards in LA's 21-19 victory over the Seahawks.

Prior, Stafford posted back-to-back 280+ passing yards against the Saints and 49ers, and has soared over this player prop line in five games this season! In fact, he's thrown for 300+ yards TWICE this year.

Can Matthew Stafford Win MVP, Lead Rams To Super Bowl?

Ranking third in pass/EPA, Stafford gets a leaky, banged-up Buccaneers secondary that allows the fourth-most passing yards to quarterbacks. This is evident, given the Bills and Patriots have dumped 44 and 28 points on the Buccaneers over the last two weeks.

Overall, this is a Rams defense that heavily utilizes Kyren Williams in the run game. Even so, McVay calls pass plays 58 percent of the time. This won't be an easy feat, given the Buccaneers rank no. 8 in defensive pass DVOA. I do think with the amount of injuries piling up for Tampa Bay, Stafford will light it up through the air. I especially think this since the Buccaneers are a top team against the run.

Mayfield may lead this potent Bucs' offense, but the defense is shaky. Not only do they allow the sixth-most passing yards per game (241.6), but Stafford is averaging just north of 255 passing yards per game.

Final Buccaneers vs Rams NFL betting prediction: Matthew Stafford OVER 255.5 Passing Yards (-120 Fanatics)

Putting up a career-best 112.7 rating, Stafford faces a Buccaneers secondary that recently gave up 317 and 270 passing yards against Josh Allen and Draye Maye over the last two weeks. Since week 1, four quarterbacks have soared over 255.5 passing yards against Tampa Bay.

• I'm taking Matthew Stafford to record over 255.5 passing yards on Sunday night. While it's been a minute since he's faced Tampa Bay, he's scorched them for 300+ passing yards in two of the previous three matchups. 

 Player Prop Bets Tonight: Kyren Williams

GP: 10 | Carries: 158 | Rushing Yards: 750 | Avg: 4.7 | Rushing TD: 6 | Receiving Yards: 182 | Receiving TD: 3

• Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-145 FanDuel)

Tonight, I placed one unit on Los Angeles Rams running back Kyren Williams to score a touchdown.

Yes, I'm aware this is an extremely popular pick; however, there is still good value here at -145. Cracking the top 10 in rush yards (750), Williams is the clear No. 1 back and workhorse for the Rams. While Blake Corum has seen some touches, Williams leads in snap count and played 69 percent of snaps last week.

It seems Williams is nearly automatic to score a touchdown every week, and I usually find the odds high. While scoring just six touchdowns on the year, he's scored in three straight games now. In fact, with four touchdowns in the last three games, two of them came against the 49ers alone!

Why Kyren Williams Can Score a Touchdown Sunday Night

Averaging 4.7 yards per carry, Williams is more of a goal-line scoring back. When I say that, he's scored all six touchdowns inside the 20. In fact, he's rushed for 98 yards on 31 attempts inside the red zone! Compare that to Corum, who's scored one lone tuddy this season.

I'm big on this player prop today, given that Williams boasts a 3.8 touchdown percentage. With that said, the Buccaneers may allow the 10th fewest rushing yards to backs. If we look at the stats, they give up the fifth-most touchdowns to running backs!

Scoring five touchdowns over the last five games, Williams gets a Tampa Bay squad that's given up three touchdowns over the last two games to James Cook (Bills) and rookie TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots). This season, we've seen several players score multiple touchdowns against Tampa, including Henderson and Jahmyr Gibbs.

Final Buccaneers vs Rams NFL betting prediction: Kyren Williams ATS (-145 FanDuel)

• I'm taking Kyren Williams to score a touchdown Sunday night. Recently, the Patriots and Lions torched the Buccaneers' defense for 147 and 136 rushing yards, and Williams has been on fire! Rushing for 278 yards over the last three weeks, No. 23 has 51 carries alone over that span. Ranking No. 22 in overall defense, the Buccaneers rank No. 21 in scoring defense. This is a perfect night for Williams to feast.

 Player Prop Bets Tonight: Sterling Shepard

GP: 2  | REC: 6 | Targets: 8 | Receiving Yards: 143 | Avg: 23.8 | TD: 0n | Longest Reception: 52

• OVER 17.5 Receiving Yards (-112 FanDuel)

My third bet for tonight, I placed one unit on Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Sterling Shepard to record over 17.5 receiving yards.

There's good and bad news for Buccaneers fans. No. 1 wideout Emeka Egbuka is expected to play, and Chris Godwin is set to return. Mike Evans was placed on IR, so it's been the Baker Mayfield and Egbuka show! Even if Godwin suits up, I expect him to be on a pitch count.

The Buccaneers' wide receiving corps doesn't run deep with the amount of injuries they've faced this season. With Jalen McMillan placed on IR, that leaves Tez Johnson and Shepard.

Does the return of Godwin change the offense? Sure. However, I don't see him going full blast today. With that, Shepard has played 65 and 66 % of snaps over the last two weeks. Overall, he holds the second-highest snap count among receivers behind Egbuka.

This is a no-brainer prop bet today, given the Rams have one of the best pass defenses in the NFL, ranking second in defensive pass DVOA. All eyes will be on Egbuka, and asking for 18 yards isn't a lot to ask!

Final Buccaneers vs Rams NFL betting prediction: Sterling Shepard OVER 17.5 Receiving Yards (-112 FanDuel)

Shepard has been a solid veteran presence for Mayfield, who's averaging 34.9 receiving yards. In fact, he's soared over this line in all games but two, and is coming off a 54-yard performance against the Bills.

• Primarily a slot receiver, but capable on the outside, Shepard has nine targets and seven receptions over the last two games. I'm taking Sterling Shepard to record over 17.5 receiving yards tonight.  The Rams' defense is vulnerable—the defense allows 12.8 receptions and over 156 receiving yards to receivers!