NFL Best Bets Sunday Night Football: Patriots vs Ravens Picks & Odds December 21 (Week 16)

Week 16 NFL Sunday night football is here, and there's a showdown ahead between the Patriots and Ravens!

(Photo by Matthew J. Lee/The Boston Globe via Getty Images)

On Sunday night, Drake Maye and the New England Patriots (11-3, 6-0 away) will face Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens (7-7, 3-5 home).

Tonight is a battle of two AFC teams, and the Patriots are the top dogs in the AFC East, and they have a chance to chase the Denver Broncos for the No.1 Seed in the Conference. Either way, New England has a 99 % chance of making the playoffs, win or lose. Trailing behind by one game is the Buffalo Bills for the AFC East crown.

RELATED: NFL WEEK 16 BEST BETS 

The Patriots head into tonight's primetime matchup as 3.5-point spread and +156 moneyline underdogs on the road. Now they face a Ravens team that will have to win all its games to sneak into the playoffs. At 7-7, this is a must-win matchup for Baltimore. The same goes for New England, given they are the third favorites to win the AFC behind the Broncos and Bills.

Overall, the Patriots have won 9 of their last 10, although they lost a 35-31 heartbreaker to the Bills last week. While off to a slow start, the Ravens have won six of their last eight games.

Head-to-head, the Patriots have a 6-4 record against the Ravens since 2010. Two franchises that were headlined by Tom Brady and Joe Flacco are now led by Maye and Jackson.

A must-win scenario for both squads, the Patriots have the third-best odds to win the AFC (+500), while the Ravens have the sixth-best odds (+1000). The Patriots may own the AFC East, for now, but they have the sixth-best odds to win Super Bowl LX (+1200).

Can the Patriots stay undefeated on the road, or will the Ravens take the AFC North over the Steelers?

Odds Are Current As Of December 21 AT 1 P.M. ET

If you're betting on the NFL Sunday matchup between the Patriots and Ravens, welcome!

Tonight's matchup will kick off at 8:20 p.m. ET at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland.  According to the weather forecast, 10.3 mph winds are predicted at the start of the game. In addition, Sunday's showdown will be broadcast on NBC/Peacock.

Here are my three best bets, player prop picks, and predictions for the Sunday night football (SNF) matchup featuring the Patriots and Ravens. My bets today include top touchdown and player prop picks for Derrick Henry, Drake Maye, and TreVeyon Henderson.

Are you in search of further NFL and sports betting promotions? We have compiled a list of the best sports betting offers here. 

NFL WEEK 16 BETS: New England Patriots vs Baltimore Ravens FanDuel Odds For December 21

MONEYLINE

• NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: +156
• BALTIMORE RAVENS: -186

SPREAD

• NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: +3.5 (-122)
• BALTIMORE RAVENS: -3.5 (-104)

 OVER/UNDER (TOTAL)

• OVER: 48.5 (-110)
• UNDER: 48.5 (-110)

BEST ODDS FOR NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS VS BALTIMORE RAVENS

• BetMGM has the best odds, favoring the Baltimore Ravens by three points (-120)
• The New England is a perfect 6-0 on the road this  NFL season.  Caesars offers the best odds at -114, tabbing the Patriots as 3.5-point spread underdogs.
• DraftKings and BetMGM currently offer the best odds for the game totals.  DraftKings offers the best value for the under (48.5) at -105, while BetMGM offers the best value for the over (48.5) at -110 odds.

New England Patriots vs Baltimore Ravens Injury Report

PATRIOTS

1. Robert Spillane, LB: OUT
2. Christian Barmore, DE: QUESTIONABLE
3. Harold Landry III, LB: QUESTIONABLE
4. Carlton Davis III, CB: QUESTIONABLE
5. Marcus Jones, NB: QUESTIONABLE

RAVENS

1. Ronnie Stanley, LT: QUESTIONABLE
2. John Jenkins, NT: QUESTIONABLE
3. Brent Urban, DE: QUESTIONABLE
4. Kyle Hamilton, S: QUESTIONABLE
5. Chidobe Awuzie, CB: DOUBTFUL

NFL Predictions for Sunday, December 21, Week 16: Patriots vs Ravens

NFL Player Prop Bets Tonight: Drake Maye

2025-2026 Season Stats

GP: 14 | CMP: 290 | Attempts: 409 | Passing Yards: 3,567 | Avg.: 8.7 | Passing TD: 23 | Int: 7 |Pass Long: 72

• OVER 240.5 Passing Yards (-120 Fanatics)

My first best bet for Sunday night, I placed one unit on Patriots quarterback Drake Maye to record over 240.5 passing yards.

Matthew Stafford may be the NFL MVP front-runner (-300), but right behind him is Maye with +350 odds. It's a long shot, but the Maye is very much still in the Most Valuable Player conversation.

Maye has been stellar for the Patriots, putting up 3,567 passing yards through 14 games. Averaging over 254 passing yards per game, he's soared over this player prop in 10 of 14 games this NFL season.

Maye let running backs TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson carry the bulk of the work with nearly 200 rushing yards in the snow against the Bills last week. While he recorded just 155 passing yards, he gets a shot at redemption tonight.

Can Drake Maye Win NFL MVP Over Matthew Stafford?

He faces a Ravens' defense that allows the eighth-most passing yards to quarterbacks, and they have several players on the injury list. We know cornerback Chidobe Awuzie is doubtful to lace up, but John Jenkins (NT), Brent Urban (DE), and Kyle Hamilton(S) are all questionable. If Hamilton is unable to play, that would give New England a huge boost.

Over the past few weeks, we saw Aaron Rodgers (Steelers) throw for 284 yards, and Joe Burrow (Bengals) throw for 261. Maye has proven he can hang with the big dogs, ranking third in total EPA and pass EPA. Furthermore, he leads all NFL quarterbacks in completion percentage (70.9 %) and cracks outside the top five with 3,567 pass yards.

Maye gets a Ravens squad that ranks No. 21 in defensive pass DVOA. We are talking about a banged-up defense that gives up 233.5 passing yards per game.

Final Patriots vs Ravens NFL betting prediction: Draye Maye OVER 240.5 Passing Yards (-120 Fanatics)

Overall, the Ravens play zone (over 60%) compared to man defense, and Maye has thrown for over 2,200 passing yards with a 71.4% completion rate against zone this season.

• I'm taking Draye Maye to break 240.5 passing yards Sunday night. In a predicted competitive matchup against the Ravens, Maye has averaged 30.8 pass attempts and an average of 256 passing yards over the last five games. 

NFL Player Prop Bets Tonight: TreVeyon Henderson

2025-2026 Season Stats

GP: 14 | Carries: 143 | Rush Yards: 773 | Avg: 5.4 | Rush TD: 7 | Rush Long: 69 | Receiving Yards: 212 | Receiving TD: 1 | Receptions: 34 | Targets: 41

• OVER 68.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-114 FanDuel)

My second-best bet for Sunday night, I'm taking Patriots running back TreVeyon Henderson to record over 68.5 rushing and receiving yards.

New England head coach Mike Vrabel continues to deploy a two-man run game between Henderson and Stevenson. Stevenson even outsnapped Henderson, 58% to 49%; however, the rookie has been by far the more productive back. I'm not worried about Stevenson—he's recorded just 95 rushing yards over the previous three games.

Am I really going to fade a player that is coming off 148 rush yards, two touchdowns, and 13 receiving yards against the Bills last week?

I truly am high on this player prop, given Henderson exploded for 147 and 148 rushing yards against the Buccaneers and Bills over the last five weeks. In between, he's been consistently hovering around 62-67 rushing yards.

Henderson hasn't been a massive x-factor in the backfield, and he's averaging 19.5 receiving yards per game over the last four games. Now he gets a banged-up Ravens' defense, which allows the third most receiving yards and the 13th fewest rushing yards to running backs.

Final Patriots vs Ravens NFL betting prediction: TreVeyon Henderson OVER 68.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-114 FanDuel)

While I initially was big on receptions, 68.5 seems fitting since Henderson has cleared this prop line in seven straight games! Over that span, he's averaging 104 rushing and receiving yards.

• I'm taking TreVeyon Henderson to record over 68.5 rushing and receiving yards today. I'm expecting him to once again be heavily involved in the offense, and somehow, the Patriots are underdogs tonight. We are talking about a running back who ranks in the top five in EPA/rush, yards per carry (5.41), and first-down percentage (33.6 %). I'm confident, given he has averaged 15.5 carries and 3.2 carries over the last four games. 

NFL Player Prop Bets Tonight: Derrick Henry Touchdown Scorer (-140 FanDuel)

My third bet for Sunday, I'm taking Ravens running back Derrick Henry to score a touchdown.

Some may have Keaton Mitchell to score a touchdown today. However, he has one on the year and played just 13% of snaps last week.  Henry has had himself another productive season, ranking fifth in rushing yards (1,125) and touchdowns (10). In a must-win matchup, I'm going with King Henry tonight.

Some could argue that Henry hasn't found the end zone in two straight weeks, but he's scored three touchdowns over the last four games. Better yet, he's eclipsed 90+ rushing yards in three of the past five games.

This is an interesting matchup for Henry, who faces a Patriots team that's allowed the fifth-fewest touchdowns to running backs. But truly, how many can say they've stopped Derrick Henry?

Lamar Jackson and the Ravens may rely on the ground game tonight, especially if the wind gusts are high. With that said, I'm fairly confident given that the Patriots gave up 110 rushing yards and three touchdowns to the Bills' running back James Cook. Aside from that, the Patriots didn't give up a rushing touchdown to a back for 10 weeks!

Henry may get his way, considering several members of the Patriots' defense are hurt. Not only has Robert Spillane been ruled out, but Harold Landry III is now questionable.

Final Patriots vs Ravens NFL betting prediction: Derrick Henry Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-140 FanDuel)

Henry leads all Ravens running backs inside the 20 with 102 rushing yards on 48 attempts, for six touchdowns.  Boasting a 76.2 rushing percentage inside the red zone, Baltimore has to improve in the red zone (51.9 % scoring rate).

Boasting a 4.3 touchdown percentage, Henry has rushed for 100 yards in cold weather. It's a great matchup for him, considering the Patriots play 3-4 defense. Against that scheme, Henry has just one touchdown, but has 10 touchdowns when playing outdoors.

• I'm backing King Henry to score a touchdown Sunday night. Scoring four touchdowns over the past five matchups, he gets New England for the first time this season.