NFL Thursday Night Football Player Prop Bets (Sept. 17): Lions vs. Bills Odds & Picks

NFL Week 2 has arrived and Thursday Night Football returns to action on Prime Video. Tonight features one of the most highly anticipated matchups between the Detroit Lions and the Buffalo Bills. In this article, you will find my three best player prop bets and predictions for Thursday, Sept. 17.

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Tonight's matchup will feature two high-octane offenses. The Bills (1-0) will play their first-ever game at the new High Mark Stadium and are fresh off an exhilarating 36-31 victory over C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans. Led by quarterback Josh Allen, the Bills offense was on full display as they put up over 400 yards of offense and four touchdowns. All four came from Allen: two rushing touchdowns and two passing touchdowns to wide receivers Joshua Palmer and DJ Moore.

We saw the Bills completely dominate on offense as Allen produced 334 pass yards and was sacked just two times for 11 yards. Tyler Bass came through for special teams hitting all three field goals, including a longest kick of 46 yards. While running back James Cook was held to 57 yards on 13 carries, the Bills' upgraded passing attack was the most impressive of all.

We can forget about the two tight end set; Dalton Kincaid led the way with a career-high 130 receiving yards for 5 receptions. Newly acquired receiver DJ Moore showed out with 100 yards on 5 receptions. With Khalil Shakir and Joshua Palmer chipping in with 43 and 34 yards, Moore's performance showed why Buffalo went and traded for him: He's a deep playmaking threat and Allen has one of the strongest arms in the NFL.

Despite Houston's ability to control the clock, the Bills created zero turnovers, and 20 first downs, often which resulted in explosive-type plays. While it was a win, their defense was vulnerable, having allowed 31 points. In addition, the Bills can improve in third down conversions and efficiency inside the 20-yard line.

Lions Escape With a Week 1 Victory Over the Saints

The Lions barely escaped with a win over the New Orleans Saints in overtime as they took the Week 1 victory 31-30. Don't let that score fool you—the Lions held a 21-0 lead and the Saints came back with 17 second-half points. Ultimately, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Noah Fant scored overtime touchdowns. However, the Saints failed to convert the two-point conversion and lost the game.

Similar to the Bills, the Lions offense put up 31 points and 469 total yards of offense. Jared Goff connected with six different receivers and tight ends for 206 passing yards and two touchdowns. However, the story of the game was RB1 Jahmyr Gibbs. In his first season as the full workhorse back following David Montgomery's departure, he ran for a career-high 156 rushing yards on 29 carries to pair with 30 receiving yards and 5 receptions and two rushing touchdowns.

Not only did the offensive line hold up well for Goff, but the Lions excelled in controlling the time of possession, red zone conversions, rushing attack, and moving the chains with Gibbs. The defense was vulnerable as Detroit gave up 17 second-half points (excluding overtime) and struggled to contain Saints QB Tyler Shough and the pass.

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Detroit Lions vs. Buffalo Bills Odds for Thursday,  Sept. 17 (DraftKings)

MONEYLINE

• DETROIT LIONS: +205
• BUFFALO BILLS: -250

SPREAD

• DETROIT LIONS: +5.5 (-110)
• BUFFALO BILLS: -5.5 (-110)

 OVER/UNDER (TOTAL)

• OVER: 54.5 (-120)
• UNDER: 54.5 (+100)

BEST ODDS FOR DETROIT LIONS VS. BUFFALO BILLS

• BetMGM has the best odds, favoring the Bills by 5.5 points (-105)
• DraftKings offers the best odds at -105, tabbing the Lions as 5.5-point underdogs.
• FanDuel and BetMGM currently offer the best odds for the game totals. BetMGM offers the best value for the under (55.5) at -108 and FanDuel offers the best value for the over (54.5) at -114 odds.

Odds Are Current As of Sept. 17 at 12:30 P.M. ET

If you're betting on the Thursday Night Football NFL matchup between the Detroit Lions and Buffalo Bills, welcome!

Detroit and Buffalo will kick things off at 8:15 p.m. ET at High Mark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York. Set to air on Prime Video, oddsmakers are predicting a high-scoring affair with the over/under total set at 54.5 points on DraftKings.

Overall, the Lions haven't won against the Bills since 2006 and enter tonight's matchup as 5.5-point underdogs on the road. The Bills are 5-0 SU vs. the Lions over the last five meetings and the spread is even at 3-3 over the last six meetings. Surprisingly, the over has hit just once, which was last year when the Bills defeated the Lions, 48-42.

Let's take a look at my three best bets and player prop picks for Thursday, Sept. 17. My bets for popular quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers can be found in Fanatics and DraftKings Sportsbook.

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NFL Predictions for Thursday, Sept. 17: Lions vs. Bills

Player Prop Bets

• Josh Allen Longest Rush OVER 13.5 Yards (-119 DraftKings)
• Jahmyr Gibbs OVER 18.5 Rushing Attempts (+105 Fanatics)
• Jameson Williams OVER 55.5 Receiving Yards (-125 Fanatics)

Josh Allen Longest Rush OVER 13.5 Yards

Tonight, I'm locking in Bills quarterback Josh Allen to record over 13.5 yards longest rush.

Allen is one of the premier dual-threat quarterbacks in the NFL and arguably one of the best rushing quarterbacks aside from Lamar Jackson. The preseason favorite to win MVP, Allen had a brilliant Week 1 performance with 23 rushing yards on 6 carries against a stingy Texans defense. 3.8 yards per carry isn't anything close to his career average of 5.4, but Thursday is a different matchup.

Allen has been fairly consistent running the ball throughout his career, recording 500-plus rushing yards (excluding this season) in all but one season. He's fresh off 579 rushing yards in 2025-26 in addition to 5.2 YPC.

There's no question that Allen will throw the ball some. Plus, a receiving corps of DJ Moore, Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, and tight ends Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox is arguably his strongest group to date. The Bills are finally able to stretch the field vertically and horizontally with DJ Moore, and both Allen and James Cook take care of the ground game.

Josh Allen Is the Front-Runner to Win NFL MVP

Cook should bounce back from a lackluster performance last week, but there's no question that Allen should receive quite a bit of pressure from Detroit's defensive line. The Lions are filled with talent including Aidan Hutchinson, DJ Wonnum, and company.

In NFL Week 1, Hutchinson delivered with 5 tackles and 2 sacks against the Saints. In addition, Derrick Barnes and Roger McCreary provided a pair of sacks. Overall, Tyler Shough was sacked five times for 32 yards. In 2025, the Lions pressured quarterbacks 24.1%, ranking among the top 10 NFL teams, and boasted the fifth-most sacks in the NFL with 49.

The Lions created similar pressure in Week 1 (23.8%) and posted a 41.3% blitz rate. Josh Allen will run tonight and will very much move the chains with his legs. That said, the Lions rank No. 20 in defensive rush DVOA and No. 15 in defensive DVOA in 2026. It's a small sample size, but you get it.

Tyler Shough ran for 8 yards last week, and he's nowhere near the caliber of Allen on the ground. That said, I think we are getting a great value here at 13.5 rushing yards at -119 odds. Dating back to last season, Allen cleared this prop in 8-of-16 games, and his average longest rush was 18.8 yards. In fact, his NFL career longest rush average is 15.6 yards per game including the playoffs.

Final Lions vs. Bills Betting Prediction: Josh Allen Longest Rush OVER 13.5 Yards (-119 DraftKings)

Against the Lions, Allen has a career longest rush of 18.3 yards. In his last meeting against the Lions, he rushed for a long of 21 yards and 11 rushing attempts.

• I'm taking Josh Allen to record over 13.5 longest rush tonight. It's a unique prop and the Lions allowed 4.5 carries to quarterbacks per game last season with an average rush of 13 yards. Not only is Allen coming off 6 carries with a longest rush of 21 yards last week, but he also cleared this player prop line in three of the final games of 2025-26. Last season, Allen rushed for a long of 40 yards (twice), along with 26, 27, and 24 longest rush against the Broncos, Saints, and Falcons. Against Detroit, we've seen him rush for a long of 21 yards (twice) with an average long of 18.1 against the Lions. Don't fade Allen, he's one of the best scrambling quarterbacks and elite when escaping pressure. 

Jahmyr Gibbs OVER 18.5 Rushing Attempts

I'm locking in Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs to record over 18.5 rushing attempts Thursday night.

Gibbs put on a show for both bettors and fantasy football owners in Week 1. As mentioned previously, he exploded for 156 rushing yards on 29 carries. While I don't think he will repeat those numbers tonight, I think the books are sleeping on this line at +105 odds.

With David Montgomery long gone, Gibbs is the clear-cut RB1 and workhorse back for head coach Dan Campbell. He's cemented himself as one of the best running backs in the NFL who is speedy, makes the explosive big plays, and is a dual-threat in the backfield with route-running capabilities.

If we look at true RB1s in the NFL last season, we saw Jonathan Taylor (19 carries), Christian McCaffrey (18.3 carries), and Derrick Henry (18.1 carries) put up some serious numbers. And this year, it's mainly Gibbs, especially since Isiah Pacheco landed on the IR. The Lions are sticking with Gibbs as he played 74% of snaps in Week 1.

We've seen this in the past, where Gibbs was more than capable of handling lead-back duties. Against the Raiders in 2023, he rushed for 152 yards on 26 carries. Against the Bears in 2024, Gibbs rushed for 109 yards on 23 carries. When operating as the lead back, he's averaged 21 carries in his NFL career without Montgomery.

I do think this player prop line is right on target for a few reasons: Gibbs averaged 14.3 carries per game last year, and that was split duties with Montgomery. Not to mention, he's averaging 14.1 career carries per game, which is just 4.4 fewer carries than tonight's prop line.

Overall, I wasn't impressed with the Bills' run defense as they rank No. 17 in defensive rush DVOA after allowing 142 rushing yards to the Texans. Mind you, Montgomery, now with the Texans, had 20 carries for 60 rushing yards alone.

Final Lions vs. Bills Betting Prediction: Jahmyr Gibbs OVER 18.5 Rushing Attempts (+105 Fanatics)

Gibbs cleared this line in just 3 of 17 games last season, but coming off 29 carries is a good indication where Detroit is headed. I do believe the Lions will throw more based on the Bills' poor pass defense last week, but 18.5 is a fair number.

• The Lions offensive line looked solid last week, but there are concerns tonight as they have multiple injuries up front. I'm taking Jahmyr Gibbs to record over 18.5 rushing attempts. 38% of his carries are up the middle and I'm expecting him to maintain a heavy workload. In 2026, the Bills rank No. 32 in EPA/Rush (0.12) and allowed a total of 32 carries last week against Houston. 

Jameson Williams OVER 55.5 Receiving Yards

For my third-best bet, I placed one unit on Lions wide receiver Jameson Williams to record over 55.5 receiving yards.

In Week 1, Williams hauled in 45 yards for 4 receptions on 9 targets. He and Goff didn't look in sync as Williams dropped some passes, which puts him at a 44.4% catch rate for the season. The good news is that number is based on a small sample size.

Now in his fifth NFL season with the Lions, Williams recorded over 1,000 receiving yards across the last two seasons in a wide receiver group that mainly belongs to Amon-Ra St. Brown. Sure, the Lions have various weapons, especially with a healthy tight end Sam LaPorta. However, here's why Williams is the play today.

I understand 22 yards came off of one catch, but we have to look at the stats. 9 targets is a hefty amount, signaling that Jared Goff wants to connect with the 6-foot-1 speedster. In fact, he came in second behind St. Brown in targets, who led the team with 14.

We all know Williams can make the big plays, and that's exactly what the Lions can do against the Bills who rank No. 23 in passing DVOA. We are talking about a Bills defense that gave up 74 receiving yards to Nico Collins and 274 to nine different receivers. In fact, Texans WR2 Jaylin Noel caught 2 targets for 53 yards.

Final Lions vs. Bills Betting Prediction: Jameson Williams OVER 55.5 Receiving Yards (-125 Fanatics)

The opportunity should be there, plus Bills safety Cole Bishop is questionable tonight. If anything, Williams has the advantage over cornerback Christian Benford. So far in 2026, Williams has lined wide in 51 snaps compared to the slot in 14 snaps. And now he gets Buffalo, who gave up 21.0 average targets, 14 average receptions and 63 yards after the catch.

• I'm taking Jameson Williams to record over 55.5 receiving yards. The Bills play zone 83.3% of the time, and Williams has hauled in 9.0 targets on 34 routes. It's known that Buffalo struggles when playing zone and Williams last produced 37 yards against Buffalo in 2024. Look for him to bounce back tonight as he cleared this line in 10 of 17 games last season and 7 of the last 10.