Thursday Night Football Player Prop Bets (Oct. 1): Steelers vs. Browns Odds & Picks

NFL Week 4 is here, and Thursday Night Football will feature an AFC North divisional matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns. In this article, you will find my best player prop bets, game odds, and predictions for Oct. 1.

(Photo by Nick Cammett/Getty Images)

Interestingly enough, both the Steelers (2-1) and Browns (2-1) are currently over .500 in a competitive division that includes the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals. Thursday night, there's a matchup between two quarterbacks that have faced scrutiny over the years: Aaron Rodgers vs. Deshaun Watson.

Rodgers, 42, is in the midst of his 22nd and final NFL season. The Steelers started off the season strong against the Atlanta Falcons, but laid an egg against Drake Maye and the New England Patriots in Week 2. Perhaps the most surprising victory thus far came against Joe Burrow and the Bengals in Week 3, 30-27. It's not all that surprising now that Rodgers is connected with head coach Mike McCarthy.

Rodgers looked very much in midseason form as he delivered 292 passing yards for three touchdowns and an interception. Not only did running back Jaylen Warren lead the way for 127 rushing yards and 49 receiving yards, but Rodgers connected with nine receivers and running backs in total.

Steelers Are 2.5-Point Favorites On the Road

At the end of the day, kicker Chris Boswell sealed the deal for the Steelers, and the Bengals failed to convert even when they were at the 40-yard line, well near field goal range. It was Steelers' Derrick Harmon who stripped Joe Burrow to cap off a wild ending.

Entering Thursday's contest, the Steelers made news headlines as they traded Joey Porter Jr. to the Dallas Cowboys for a 2028 second-round pick and 2027 sixth-round pick. While he has yet to play this season, cornerback Jalen Ramsey is questionable to lace up due to a wrist injury. In addition, running back Rico Dowdle is out and Yahya Black is questionable.

Similarly, the Browns are riding a two-game winning streak against the Buccaneers and defeated the Panthers in Week 3, 21-18, thanks to a late fourth-quarter touchdown from Watson to tight end Harold Fannin Jr.

Despite their 2-1 start, the Browns hold a -17 point differential and were rocked by the Jaguars on the season opener, 34-10. Now they get their second straight home game where they last beat the Steelers on their home turf 13-6 in December 2025.

Browns Are 5-0 On TNF Since 2020

The offensive line is very much in question now that center Elgton Jenkins has been ruled out with a concussion and Teven Jenkins will miss another game.

The Browns are underdogs at home, but according to CBS Sports, the Steelers have a 3-16 road record on Thursday games since 1970, which marks the worst streak in the NFL. In addition, they report that Pittsburgh is 0-9 against divisional AFC North games on Thursday Night road games. Will the Steelers break that streak tonight?

According to Yahoo Sports, the Steelers are 1-5 on Thursday Night Football since 2020, and the Browns are one of the hottest TNF teams over that span at a perfect 5-0.

Although just four weeks into the 2026 NFL season, the Steelers have +5000 odds to win the Super Bowl on DraftKings, while the Browns have the fourth-worst odds at +20000. Oddsmakers are expecting a low-scoring affair with the over/under total set at 38.5 points.

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Thursday Night Football: Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns Odds for Oct. 1 (DraftKings)

MONEYLINE

• PITTSBURGH STEELERS: -148
• CLEVELAND BROWNS:+124

SPREAD

• PITTSBURGH STEELERS: -2.5 (-120)
• CLEVELAND BROWNS: +2.5 (+100)

 OVER/UNDER (TOTAL)

• OVER: 38.5 (-105)
• UNDER: 38.5 (-115)

BEST ODDS FOR PITTSBURGH STEELERS VS. CLEVELAND BROWNS

• FanDuel has the best odds, favoring the Steelers by 2.5 points (-118)
• BetMGM offers the best odds at -110, tabbing the Browns as 3-point underdogs.
• DraftKings and FanDuel currently offer the best odds for the game totals. DraftKings offers the best value for the under (38.5) at -115 and FanDuel offers the best value for the over (37.5) at -112 odds.

Odds Are Current As of Oct. 1 at 2:00 P.M. ET

If you're betting on the Thursday Night Football matchup between the Steelers and Browns, welcome!

Pittsburgh and Cleveland will kick off at 8:15 p.m. ET at Huntington Bank Field and the matchup will air on Prime Video. In addition, the expected temperature is 79 degrees with 16 mph wind gusts according to AccuWeather.

Let's take a look at my best bets, player prop picks, and odds for TNF on Oct. 1. All of my bets can be found at DraftKings and FanDuel Sportsbook. This time around, I chose unique bets which include defensive and special teams player prop picks.

NFL TNF Predictions for Thursday, Oct. 1: Steelers vs. Browns Player Prop Bets

• Jaylen Warren OVER 75.5 Rushing Yards (-113 FanDuel)
• Andre Szmyt OVER 1.5 Field Goals Made (+107 DraftKings)
• Derrick Harmon 1+ Sack (+194 DraftKings)

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Jaylen Warren OVER 75.5 Rushing Yards

I'm locking in Steelers running back Jaylen Warren to record over 75.5 rushing yards against the Browns on Thursday.

Warren is the Steelers No. 1 back after Rico Dowdle was ruled out for the second straight game with a toe injury. Warren impressed last week against the Bengals, rushing for 127 yards on 17 carries. Mind you, the Bengals allow just 95.7 rushing yards per game, which is the ninth-fewest in the NFL.

Without Dowdle, Warren played 90% of snaps last week, with Travis Homer and Lew Nichols III combining for 10% of snaps played. And if you missed last week's game, Jaylen Warren's 87-yard run was called back due to a holding call.

Tallying just shy of 1,000 rushing yards in 2025 (958), Warren has compiled 216 rushing yards on 38 carries in 2026. In addition, I like the fact that he's averaging a career-high 5.7 yards per carry, which ranks third among NFL running backs.

Workhorse Jaylen Warren is here: He cracks the top 10 among running backs in total rushing yards and has been excellent in breaking tackles (169 yards after contact).

In fact, according to Next Gen Stats, Warren forced 10 missed tackles against the Bengals in Week 1 on 20 touches.

I like rushing yards here, as receivers Michael Pittman Jr. and DK Metcalf are at full health. This leaves the door open for Warren to attack on the ground against a Browns' defense that has replaced Myles Garrett with Jared Verse.

Through three weeks, the Browns rank No. 25 in defensive rushing DVOA, where opponents rush for an average of 120.3 yards. Even with some solid defensive pieces, Cleveland ranks No. 21 in rush EPA and No. 24 in sack rush rate and play zone 54.7%  of plays.

Final Steelers vs. Browns Betting Prediction: Jaylen Warren OVER 75.5 Rushing Yards (-113 FanDuel)

The Steelers have been much more pass-heavy (68%) under McCarthy, but I like Warren against the Browns tonight. Warren may be undersized at 5'8", but he's a dual-threat. With that, he's one of the most physical backs who can break tackles and has been efficient on the ground this season.

• I'm taking Jaylen Warren to record over 75.5 rushing yards tonight. He's cleared this once in three games, but did so as the RB1. Warren rushes on the left end and middle for 68% of his carries. Cleveland is stronger on the right end, and allows 7.7 yards per carry on the left end. Warren is averaging 7.8 yards per carry in the left end gap alone!  This season we saw both Chuba Hubbard (82 rushing yards) and Bucky Irving (89 rushing yards) clear this prop line and combined for 36 carries over a two-week span. Warren is coming off a season-high 17 carries and has averaged 62.5 rushing yards and 12.9 carries in 17 career starts. Without Dowdle, I expect his rush volume to increase tonight. 

Andre Szmyt OVER 1.5 Field Goals Made

This may not be the most popular pick, but I placed one unit on Browns' kicker Andre Szmyt to record over 1.5 field goals made tonight against the Steelers.

Tonight is a story that features one of the least efficient offenses vs. a potent defense. Even without Mike Tomlin, the Steelers rank No. 1 in defensive DVOA and defensive passing DVOA.

We are talking about a Steelers team that allows just north of 305 total yards per game and 19.7 points per game. This is a defense that's headlined by T.J. Watt, Cam Heyward, Patrick Queen, Alex Highsmith, among several others.

While the Browns came to life last week, it was late-game success that pushed past the Panthers. Overall the offense has been fairly abysmal as Cleveland averages just 266 total yards per game, which is the third-fewest in the NFL. In addition to low yardage output, the Browns don't score often (18 PPG).

In fact, Cleveland averages 2.0 field goals per game on the dot and just 1.7 touchdowns per game. You take a team like that against a Steelers defense that allows 2.0 field goals per game. If we are talking about red zone efficiency, Pittsburgh is one of the best, limiting opponents to 33.3% inside the 20-yard line.

Overall, the Browns are in the lower tier among NFL teams in passing yards per game (178.3) and rushing yards per game (87.7). I'm not exactly 100% convinced in Watson, let alone the receiving corps outside of Denzel Boston and Harold Fannin Jr. Plus, it's been tough to get running back Quinshon Judkins going, who's averaged just 27 rushing yards over the first two weeks.

Final Steelers vs. Browns Betting Prediction: Andre Szmyt OVER 1.5 Field Goals Made (+107 DraftKings)

Overall, Szmyt is tied for seventh among NFL kickers, making 6-of-6 field goals. Through three games, Szmyt is not only 100% with his kicks, but is a perfect 3-of-3 from 40-plus yards and 1-of-1 from 50-plus yards out.

As mentioned previously, the books are expecting a low-scoring affair, and the Browns average just 14.3 points, 1.3 field goals, and 1.7 touchdowns per game over the last 10 outings against the Steelers. Historically, Cleveland's offense has been relatively abysmal against Pittsburgh, scoring just a combined 22 points over the last two meetings.

• I'm taking Andre Szmyt to record over 1.5 made field goals tonight. Everyone is talking about Chris Boswell, but Szmyt has been reliable for the Browns this season. The Browns post just a 33.5% rate zone rate touchdown on offense and the Steelers have allowed at least two field goals in each of their three games this season. This is a firm lock as Szmyt has cleared this player prop line in four of the last five games dating back to last season.

Derrick Harmon 1+ Sack

For my last bet, I'm taking Steelers' tackle Derrick Harmon to record 1-plus sack tonight against the Browns.

Yes, the same Derrick Harmon who forced the fumble that led to a Week 3 victory over the Bengals. T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith may lead the team in tackles with 3.5 and 3, but Harmon has tallied 1.5 sacks in 2026 for 15 sack yards. Remind you, that's 1.5 over the last two games alone.

We know the Browns' offensive line is banged up tonight and Watson has been sacked 9 times this season, which is the fourth-most in the NFL. With that, he's been sacked for 52 yards in three games.

Final Steelers vs. Browns Betting Prediction: Derrick Harmon 1+ Sack (+194 DraftKings)

Not only do the Steelers boast the sixth-most sacks in the NFL this season with 48, but they blitz 28.7% of the time. In addition, this is a defense that pressures a good amount, and Harmon has already pestered both Joe Burrow and Drake Maye.

• I'm taking Derrick Harmon to record 1+ sack tonight. He's quietly cleared this line in four of the last five games dating back to last season and last recorded a sack against Cleveland in October 2025. All eyes may be on Watt, but Harmon has created six pressures this season and ranks No. 95 in pass rush snaps with 39. According to PFF, his pass-rush grade is an 84.3 this season, which is strong. Lock in this play for plus-money.