NFL Thursday Night Football Best Bets (Sept. 24): Falcons vs. Packers Odds & Picks

Thursday Night Football brings an early test for the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field as the Atlanta Falcons visit. The spread asks whether Green Bay can turn its first home game into a comfortable win; the total asks how much Atlanta’s quarterback change can repair an offense that has struggled through two weeks.

Green Bay enters 1-1 after rallying to beat the New York Jets 20-17 in overtime. Jordan Love and the Packers found a way to win despite losing several offensive contributors. Their return to Lambeau comes on a short week, with those injuries now shaping Thursday’s game plan.

(Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images)

Atlanta arrives 0-2 after a 34-3 home loss to Carolina. The Falcons are turning to Michael Penix Jr., who will make his first start since last season’s knee injury. His return gives Atlanta a chance to involve Drake London and Kyle Pitts more effectively, but it also gives Penix little time to regain game rhythm before facing Green Bay on the road.

The Packers Face an Immediate Home Test On Thursday Night Football

The availability report could influence both sides of the handicap. Green Bay has ruled out receiver Jayden Reed, guard Aaron Banks, tackle Zach Bako-Bewele and defensive tackle Warren Brinson. Atlanta, meanwhile, has placed starting cornerback A.J. Terrell on injured reserve. Reed’s absence limits Love’s options, while Terrell’s absence gives the Packers a matchup to target if their protection holds up.

Green Bay is favored because it has the steadier quarterback situation, home field and a clearer path to exploiting Atlanta’s secondary. Penix’s return introduces uncertainty: he could lift the Falcons’ offense, but one start after a long absence is a difficult basis for trusting Atlanta to keep pace. That tension creates three connected opportunities across the side, total and rushing-prop markets.

Kalshi: Pros and Cons

• CFTC-regulated
• Transparent pricing
• Low fees, no house edge
• Diverse event markets available

• Possible loss from volatility or market uncertainty

Visit Kalshi

Seeking out more sports and NFL TNF betting promotions? Ballislife Bets has gathered a list of the best available sports betting offers here.

Here are the odds for Thursday's game, via FanDuel:

NFL Week 3 TNF Odds: Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers

• Spread: Atlanta +4.5 (-104) | Green Bay -4.5 (-118)
• Moneyline: Atlanta (+200) | Green Bay (-245)
• Total: Over 43.5 (-104) | Under 43.5 (-118)

Green Bay – which has won its last 13 home openers – leads the all-time series 19-17, but Atlanta took the most recent meeting, 25-24, in 2023. The setting changes the picture: the Packers have won the last four regular-season meetings at Lambeau Field and are 12-4 at home against the Falcons in the regular-season series.

That history supports Green Bay’s home-field case, although a four-game series streak spans different rosters and quarterbacks. The sharper question is whether Love can capitalize on Atlanta’s weakened secondary while the Packers adjust to their own injuries. At 4.5 points, Green Bay needs to do more than escape with a win.

TNF Best Bets for Sept. 24 (Odds via FanDuel)

Thursday’s matchup offers three connected betting opportunities built around Green Bay’s edge at quarterback, Atlanta’s likely reliance on its running game and a short week that may limit offensive efficiency. These are my three strongest plays from tonight’s TNF game:

TNF Best Bets: Green Bay Packers -4.5 over Atlanta Falcons (-118)

Love threw two touchdowns in Green Bay’s 20-17 overtime win at the Jets, giving the Packers a needed response after their opening loss. Atlanta’s offense has produced only 16 points in two games. Cooper Rush went 10-for-17 for 86 yards and two interceptions in last week’s 34-3 loss to Carolina before being replaced. Penix is cleared to start Thursday, but his first appearance since last season’s knee injury comes at Lambeau with only three days between games.

Atlanta’s pass defense showed its vulnerability after Terrell left Sunday’s game: Bryce Young finished with 287 yards and three touchdowns as Carolina built a 20-3 halftime lead. Reed’s absence and Green Bay’s offensive-line injuries complicate the response, but Love does not need an elaborate passing plan to test the replacement cornerbacks. Quick throws and favorable matchups could help the Packers sustain drives and turn Atlanta’s secondary issues into the margin needed to cover.

Competing ATS Trends Sharpen the Handicap

Green Bay is 5-2 ATS in its last seven Week 3 games, while Atlanta is 5-0 ATS following a double-digit home loss. Both trends deserve space in this handicap: the Falcons have a history of responding in this spot, and the Packers’ short turnaround makes a comfortable win less automatic. That said, the Cheeseheads have covered five of their last eight Thursday Night Football games.

The deciding edge is Green Bay’s ability to force Penix into difficult passing situations. Its defense has allowed 28 points per game, yet only 262 yards per game through two weeks; turnovers and short fields have made the scoring average look worse than the yardage allowed. If the Packers contain Bijan Robinson on early downs and Love exploits Terrell’s absence, Green Bay has a credible path to winning by more than four. The Packers have covered three straight against Atlanta and will do it again tonight.

TNF Best Bets: Atlanta Falcons-Green Bay Packers Under 43.5 Points (-118)

Both offenses enter with questions that a short week leaves little time to solve. Atlanta scored 13 points against Pittsburgh and three against Carolina, staying Under in both games. Penix gives the Falcons a higher ceiling than they showed with Rush, but his first start back is unlikely to come with an expansive game plan. Establishing Bijan Robinson and giving Penix manageable throws offers Atlanta a better chance to sustain drives.

Green Bay’s 20 points against the Jets required overtime. The Packers managed just 199 total yards and converted 1 of 9 third downs, then lost Reed and multiple offensive linemen during the game. Love’s two touchdown passes showed he can rescue possessions, but those production and injury numbers make it difficult to assume Green Bay will score quickly or often Thursday.

The Total Trends Fit the Game Script

The threat is field position. Atlanta turned the ball over repeatedly against Carolina, and another interception or defensive score could push the total upward without either offense playing well. If Penix protects the ball, this looks more like a game of patient drives than explosive scoring.

Atlanta is 2-0 to the Under this season, while Green Bay is 10-5-2 to the Under at home since 2024. The Packers’ home-favorite Under record is a narrower 7-6-1, so the trends reinforce the play without settling it. The stronger argument is pace: Robinson carries can shorten the game, and Green Bay’s line changes could encourage Love to get the ball out quickly. Now factor in the Packers' 7-2 Under run on Mondays and the argument gets stronger.

TNF Best Bets: Bijan Robinson Over 78.5 Rushing Yards (-113)

Robinson is the centerpiece of Atlanta’s best plan for Penix’s return. He rushed for 83 yards against Pittsburgh and 72 on 16 carries against Carolina, averaging 4.5 yards per attempt in the latter game despite the Falcons’ 31-point loss. At that rate, 18 carries would produce 81 yards. He also handled 29 touches and gained 173 yards from scrimmage in Week 1, showing the workload Atlanta can give him when the game stays within reach.

Green Bay presents a tougher rushing matchup than Carolina. The Packers held Breece Hall to 29 yards on 16 carries Sunday. That performance makes Robinson’s volume crucial: he may need 18 to 20 attempts, rather than one or two big runs, to clear this number. Atlanta’s inability to reach the red zone through two weeks also gives coach Kevin Stefanski reason to establish an efficient ground game before asking Penix to carry the offense.

Atlanta Must Keep Feeding Robinson

Atlanta's 5-0 ATS trend after a double-digit home loss points to the game script this prop needs: a more competitive Falcons effort than last Sunday’s. It doesn't predict Robinson’s yardage, but a close game lets Atlanta keep calling runs into the fourth quarter. Carolina’s early lead helped hold Robinson to 16 carries.

Penix’s return should make it harder for Green Bay to devote every defensive resource to the run. Robinson still faces a front that just shut down Hall, so this is a wager on sustained opportunity as much as efficiency. If Atlanta commits to him for a full game, Over 78.5 rushing yards is attainable.

W.G. Ramirez is a veteran sports writer from Las Vegas and a staff analyst at Ballislife Bets. Follow him on X at @WillieGRamirez.